ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Oh that's interesting. Link?
As a casual hockey fan it feels incredibly important especially in PP/SH situations.
Illini Basketball
- Status
As a casual hockey fan it feels incredibly important especially in PP/SH situations.
Recall reading something about this before. Think it was discussed a while ago on here.
The team that wins the tipoff gets roughly a 2-3% advantage as far as winning/losing the game, but was noted this 'statistical win boost' can be attributed to the team winning the tipoff having a taller and/or possibly more athletic center than can be attributed to getting an extra 1/4 of a possession or whatever it amounts to by giving yourself an extra 25-30% chance of winning the tip. Think Michigan playing Prairie View A&M... the reason they win isn't really because Aday Mara got the opening tip.
You also then either have to immediately burn a timeout or just play 4 1/2 minutes until the first media timeout with a sub-optimal lineup in the game throughout the very crucial first segment.
The team that wins the tipoff gets roughly a 2-3% advantage as far as winning/losing the game, but was noted this 'statistical win boost' can be attributed to the team winning the tipoff having a taller and/or possibly more athletic center than can be attributed to getting an extra 1/4 of a possession or whatever it amounts to by giving yourself an extra 25-30% chance of winning the tip. Think Michigan playing Prairie View A&M... the reason they win isn't really because Aday Mara got the opening tip.
You also then either have to immediately burn a timeout or just play 4 1/2 minutes until the first media timeout with a sub-optimal lineup in the game throughout the very crucial first segment.
It feels like it’s worth more in hockey since it’s a time of possession game with no shot clock. I’m also kinda shocked it’s not worth more.
So the most referenced study done on this is in .pdf form so hard to link. But search: Statistical Sports Consulting "Analysis of NHL Faceoffs". It's a great study.
Long and the short of it being +75 in faceoffs roughly translates to +1 goal. The study blew people's minds, because as you said, being a hockey fan, winning that offensive face off and immediately putting it in the net seems like such a regularly game changing occurrence, but it really doesn't happen as much as we think. Unless you're Anze Kopitar, as crazy as it sounds, it just doesn't have much practical effect, though it will help increase your Corsi numbers.
I've also read that the home team wins the tip off at a slightly higher rate for some reason, and so the correlation may be, entirely or in part, more home court advantage than anything to do with the tip. See: https://www.82games.com/random14.htm
And then as Narrow J said, there is some correlation between talent level and winning the tip off that skews the numbers.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Loyalty Before Dark: Just The Tip
Never split 10s or twins!!!
Just using math:
-Odd number of jump balls: if you win the opening tip - you will gain an extra possession if there are and odd number of jump balls during the game - given we scored ~1.25ppp last year, that would give us a 1.25 point advantage for that game
- Even number of jump balls: No extra possessions with zero or an even number of jump balls so no impact
I don't know the data on how often there is an even vs. odd number of jump balls in a game, but if it's 50/50, then winning the tip gives us a .625 point advantage on average for the game, which is pretty insignificant.
Said another way, if we average 60 possessions a game then gaining an extra possession is about a 1.66% advantage for the game, which we could get 50% of the time when we win the opening tip, so only about a .8% advantage on average for winning the opening tip, so pretty negligible over a large amount of games, but if it's a one possession game, getting one extra possession can be very significant in any one game.
Unless I've missed it somewhere in your math here, this also assumes going from a 0% win rate to a 100% win rate. As in, its the difference between not winning the jump ball and winning the jump ball and not player A has 45% win rate and player B has 70% win rate. Then you can take your miniscule advantage and multiply by 0.25 (70% minus 45%) for an even more miniscule advantage.
Then, consider that you play one of the most crucial segments of the game with a suboptimal lineup and the whole thing goes backwards and you probably shoot yourself in the foot by trying to gain some <= 1% advantage.
Its not really even worth worrying about.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
We are about one week post final four run and we are debating if winning the opening tip significantly boosts odds of winning (checks notes...statistically does not).
This is off-season Loyalty at its finest.
This is off-season Loyalty at its finest.
I'm debating if it boosts the odds even a little. (Checks notes...statistically does).
I want a guy like Auggie who won almost every tip by getting it just after it left the referee's hand.
I haven't seen anyone imply that teams win games because they win the tip off. Correlation just implies a relationship between the two exists.I've also read that the home team wins the tip off at a slightly higher rate for some reason, and so the correlation may be, entirely or in part, more home court advantage than anything to do with the tip. See: https://www.82games.com/random14.htm
And then as Narrow J said, there is some correlation between talent level and winning the tip off that skews the numbers.
Like you and NarrowJ pointed out, there are other confounding variables at play that are influencing both the outcome of the tip off and the outcome of the game.
It's also true that different variables have different levels of influence over an outcome. The tip off, according to this study, has a not insignificant level of influence over the outcome. But there are several other variables that have much stronger influence over the outcome such that it probably wouldn't make sense to try to win the tip off at the expense of maximizing the other variables.
Noblesville Illini
- Nappanee, IN
Well, I prefer this to food fights discussing cottage cheese!
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
There is another confounding variable we have to consider. The study focused entirely on the NBA. Naturally NBA and College games are similar, but in many respects, the game is much different too.
Without having detailed methodology of the project, I will refrain from being overly critical of the statistical design.
The only area that I would have major interest is a study of Overtime games only. How strong was the relationship between the result of the tip and game. For an entire game, the opening tip is a rather small variable that gets washed away by more important variables. In a more tight time-bound situation like OT, I could conceptually see winning the tip as more important. Even then, I would not put too much stock in that, as I want the best lineup on the court. I would hate to put so much stock in winning the tipoff at the expense of having the best lineup on the court.
Every tipoff, my wife still likes to say, "Jimmy always gets the tip!"
Overtime there is a much bigger case tip has importance because each team averages only about 8 possessions in overtime. Getting an extra possession in OT would have inherent value as it'd give you around 12-15% more possessions than the other team when it happens. 1 extra possession out of 8 total possessions is much more important than 1 extra possession out of 68 total possessions.
There is a perfect correlation between scoring more points and winning the game
hooraybeer
- Peoria, IL
only if you mean “winning” in a literal sense. lots of ways to win despite scoring fewer points
Not so sure about them. I want more Elite. We have Texas Tech, Missouri and UConn at this point.
No more Quad 4 games and I'll take Florida or Arizona.
Five or more Quad 4 games, then let's go (Florida or Arizona) and (Houston or Vandy).
College basketball rankings: Michigan, No. 1 in way-too-early Top 25 And 1, lands Tennessee's J.P. Estrella
The Wolverines don't waste any time adding a key piece out of the transfer portal
www.cbssports.com
I ran into him in the hallways at the Final Four. He was a really nice guy. Anyhow…
BillyBob1
- Champaign
He didn’t poke you in the eye did he?
- Status