I am starting to appreciate that this game will be M-A-S-S-I-V-E for this program on a number of levels. The obvious reason is that it is our first test, and it could REALLY get the hype train taking off if we come away with a solid road win on national TV, and thus it would also sort of take the wind out of our sails if we fail our first real test in Week 2. But more than that...
This is the exact type of game Illinois loses - a non-conference road game that has the ability to set the tone for the rest of the season. We have seen the movie SO many times where we get excited for an early season non-conference test, and our cautiously optimistic hopes for Illinois football are crushed or at least severely tempered. For a trip down memory lane, this is our non-conference road record over the last 30 years vs. Power Five, including neutral site matchups in St. Louis and Chicago (as they have the same type of dynamic/effect).
1994: Washington State 10, #22 Illinois 9 in Chicago, IL (Week 1). While this didn't kill the season (we finished 7-5 and won a bowl game), it kicked things off in a disappointing fashion.
1995: #24 Oregon 34, Illinois 31 in Eugene, OR (Week 2). We lost our preseason ranking the week before after a blowout loss at home to Michigan, and this team would limp to a 5-5-1 finish and no bowl.
1996: Arizona 41, Illinois 0 in Tucson, AZ (Week 3). While this one must have been REALLY bad to watch, this team had lost 55-3 at home the previous week, too. Other than beating Akron and Indiana (in 2OT, lol) at home, we would lose every game from there on out.
1998: Washington State 20, Illinois 13 in Pullman, WA (Week 1). Finished the season 3-8.
2001: Illinois 44, Cal 17 in Berkeley, CA (Week 1). An impressive win that set the tone for this season, with our team only losing one more game all year before the Sugar Bowl.
2002: Missouri 33, Illinois 20 in St. Louis, MO (Week 1). This is one of the first Illini football games I remember watching with my grandpa. After the hype of the 2001 season, starting off with a loss on the way to missing a bowl sucked.
2003: Missouri 22, Illinois 15 in St. Louis, MO (Week 1). Commence, 1-11 season, lol.
2003: UCLA 6, Illinois 3 in Pasadena, CA (Week 3). If there was any optimism after the tough Mizzou loss, this probably finished it off!
2005: #15 Cal 35, Illinois 20 in Berkeley, CA (Week 3). I remember people being really excited that we beat Rutgers in OT in Week 1, which was Zook's first game. After a blowout win in Week 2, I imagine fans were at least cautiously optimistic?? However, the Cal loss would kick off a 9-game losing streak to end the year.
2006: Rutgers 33, Illinois 0 in Piscataway, NJ (Week 2). Yikes, I remember this one vividly, haha.
2007: Missouri 40, Illinois 34 in St. Louis, MO (Week 1). Another Mizzou loss to start the season, but I actually think this one might have kick-started this successful Rose Bowl campaign and might have lit a fire, so to speak.
2007: Illinois 41, Syracuse 20 in Syracuse, NY (Week 3). I can't speak for everyone, but this is when I really started to wonder if the 2007 squad could be good ... they removed all doubt by carrying this momentum forward to beat #21 Penn State and #5 Wisconsin in the coming weeks.
2008: #6 Missouri 52, #20 Illinois 42 in St. Louis, MO (Week 1). No shame in losing to this Mizzou squad, but it did seem to somewhat throw us off. This team could just never find a groove and would end up missing a bowl (absolutely unacceptable given the talent we had) in a critically important season for our program.
2009: Missouri 37, Illinois 9 in St. Louis, MO (Week 1). Talk about setting the tone ... I remember people being really hyped for 2009 to be a bit of a rebound campaign, and instead it completely solidified any doubts people were starting to have about Zook.
2009: #5 Cincinnati 49, Illinois 36 in Cincinnati, OH (Week 14). We were finished by this point, but it makes the list nonetheless.
2010: Missouri 23, Illinois 13 in St. Louis, MO (Week 1). Even as a supporter of this rivalry always being in St. Louis if possible ... yeah, his once again just sucked starting the season off immediately on the wrong foot.
2012: Arizona State 45, Illinois 14 in Tempe, AZ (Week 2). IT didn't take long to have doubts about the Beckman Era, getting blown out in his second game. These doubts would be solidified in Week 4 when a blowout home loss to Louisiana Tech kick-started a 9-game losing streak to end the year, lol.
2013: #19 Washington 34, Illinois 24 in Chicago, IL (Week 3). I have no complaints about scheduling the game or having it at Soldier Field, but this is just another example of us failing an early season test like this.
2014: Washington 44, Illinois 19 in Seattle, WA (Week 3). In a make-or-break season for Beckman, our 2-0 Illini showed their true colors in our first real test.
2015: North Carolina 48, Illinois 14 in Chapel Hill, NC (Week 3). I honestly sometimes get this route and the loss at Virginia (stay tuned!!) confused, as they felt so similar, haha.
2021: Virginia 42, Illinois 14 in Charlottesville, VA (Week 3). Wait, it's because they WERE extremely similar!
Seriously, though, this one was such a downer. We kicked off Bret's era here by knocking off Nebraska, and everyone was so pumped. It sucked to then follow that up with a stinker of a loss at home to UTSA in Week 2 and then this blowout.
2023: Kansas 34, Illinois 23 in Lawrence, KS (Week 2). Another classic example of a "big early test" in an important season for the program, and we failed. If last year hadn't been such an awesome season for us, 2023 very well could have been another 2008 campaign as far as it affected our trajectory.
So ... we are 2-20 in these big early season non-conference tests. It might be unreasonable to expect to have a winning record vs. Power Five opponents away from home, but that is remarkably bad. And, as shown above, many of these early season results helped set the tone for the rest of our season - most times negatively, but sometimes positively like in 2001 and 2007. The bottom line is that this game at Duke is one we should win if we have aspirations of being a 2001- or 2007-type team, and it's a game we will not win if we are pretenders. Would a loss totally derail our season? No, of course not; Duke is a solid team, and it is only Week 2. However, it would be a huge statement and would help ease our fans' collective psyche if we could pass this early season test ... because we have watched ourselves fail it WAY too many times before!
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