Illini Football 2019

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#201      
BMoreIllini
BananaShampoo said:
#76 huh? Just behind Purdon't and ahead of Maryland. Honestly seems kind of reasonable but hope we can do better. Doesn't seem like bowl territory.
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If take the schedule and do a W/L for each game based on his rankings then we only win 4 (not bowl territory). However, Those 4 wins are against teams ranked (102, 107, 122, and 127 out of 130 teams and the only road game is against 127). We HAVE to put those 4 teams away. After that we only need to go 2-6 against B1G teams on our schedule not named Rutgers. I hope we can pull 2 "upsets". I also wonder when people compile national rankings how much time they really have to look at additions teams made. I put more faith in those who primarily cover the B1G as they have more time to dedicate to ranking just 14 teams, as opposed to arbitrarily ranking 130.
 
#202      
thunderwear
BMoreIllini said:
If take the schedule and do a W/L for each game based on his rankings then we only win 4 (not bowl territory). However, Those 4 wins are against teams ranked (102, 107, 122, and 127 out of 130 teams and the only road game is against 127). We HAVE to put those 4 teams away. After that we only need to go 2-6 against B1G teams on our schedule not named Rutgers. I hope we can pull 2 "upsets". I also wonder when people compile national rankings how much time they really have to look at additions teams made. I put more faith in those who primarily cover the B1G as they have more time to dedicate to ranking just 14 teams, as opposed to arbitrarily ranking 130.
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These aren’t national rankings, most national rankings will rank us close to the bottom of 130. These are statistical analyses based on a series of factors, including recruiting, experience, history, production and competition. The link in twitter will run down the expectations.

Interestingly, Minnesota is ranked 20, primarily because of a weaker early schedule. Purdue and Nebraska have mostly toss ups and no clear win on their big schedule.

He has us with 4 clear wins, 3 toss ups (nebraska, Purdue, northwestern) with the non Michigan games being lighter prediction losses. I would personally think Minnesota is a tossup as well, but I think his prediction has them slightly better on every category and it’s a home game for them.
 
#203      
BMoreIllini
thunderwear said:
These aren’t national rankings, most national rankings will rank us close to the bottom of 130. These are statistical analyses based on a series of factors, including recruiting, experience, history, production and competition. The link in twitter will run down the expectations.
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That's fair, I just saw the rankings and didn't scroll further to see how they were calculated. I the analysis of 4 clear wins and 3-4 toss ups with the rest just hoping we don't get blown away is fair and accurate. How we do in those 3-4 toss up games are going to determine the season and direction of the program. Granted, for any middling (if you can even call us that) Big 10 team, that's true.
 
#204      
KrushCow31
4 wins but two of them are Northwestern and Michigan vs 6 wins and a bowl game of which neither is Michigan or Northwestern. Which do you choose?
 
#205      
OrangeSoda
#208      
Deleted member 654622
OrangeSoda said:
Also wanted to drop this. Always find this article interesting each year:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://athlonsports.com/college-football/big-ten-coaches-talk-anonymously-about-conference-foes-2019?amp&ved=2ahUKEwi_-_20hfbjAhXTo54KHY__BR4Q0PADegQICBAT&usg=AOvVaw29Yk0ftWS8tGF6N-XG8RlG
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Wow that is a big difference from what was said last year.
And it says basically what some of us have been preaching for a while now - "Defensively, they're fairly simple. Lovie (Smith) comes from an NFL background — it's a lot of man coverage or Cover-2. They'll switch it up a little bit, but it's been easy to figure them out. It's easy to figure out what you want to run against them, because they're not going to get exotic, and they don't have the personnel to challenge you one on one".
Once they get the talent to win one on one matchups, his defense will work
 
#209      
Deleted member 29907
Dude said:
Wow that is a big difference from what was said last year.
And it says basically what some of us have been preaching for a while now - "Defensively, they're fairly simple. Lovie (Smith) comes from an NFL background — it's a lot of man coverage or Cover-2. They'll switch it up a little bit, but it's been easy to figure them out. It's easy to figure out what you want to run against them, because they're not going to get exotic, and they don't have the personnel to challenge you one on one".
Once they get the talent to win one on one matchups, his defense will work
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"They didn't have what you could consider to be a 'dynamic' back like you see in this league..."

These writeups from 'anonymous' coaches can not be real. Clickbait?
 
#210      
thunderwear
Dude said:
Wow that is a big difference from what was said last year.
And it says basically what some of us have been preaching for a while now - "Defensively, they're fairly simple. Lovie (Smith) comes from an NFL background — it's a lot of man coverage or Cover-2. They'll switch it up a little bit, but it's been easy to figure them out. It's easy to figure out what you want to run against them, because they're not going to get exotic, and they don't have the personnel to challenge you one on one".
Once they get the talent to win one on one matchups, his defense will work
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This defense *may work


Funny, but was about to say the same thing.
 
#211      
Deleted member 654622
ILL_INI said:
Maybe the administration needs to give Lovie a pass until he can recruit the right players. He probably just needs another 4-6 years so he can recruit more 4 and 5* talent on defense, maybe longer to wait until they are upperclassmen. Once stocked with 4 and 5 star talent, his defense will be a force! Just you wait and see!

I was thinking it basically says what some us have been preaching for a while now: Lovie has yet to show he can defend modern college offenses with collegiate players.
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Collegiate underclassman. Which not many can
 
#212      
thunderwear
ILL_INI said:
Maybe the administration needs to give Lovie a pass until he can recruit the right players. He probably just needs another 4-6 years so he can recruit more 4 and 5* talent on defense, maybe longer to wait until they are upperclassmen. Once stocked with 4 and 5 star talent, his defense will be a force! Just you wait and see!

I was thinking it basically says what some us have been preaching for a while now: Lovie has yet to show he can defend modern college offenses with collegiate players.
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Your point that Lovies defense may not work at this level is valid. But it’s not truth and I think this is quite a stretch from what dude is saying.

Truth is that freshmen, outside of a few positions are usually not productive. Sophomores can be productive, but usually you get the most use out of juniors and seniors.

Whether or not lovies defense works at the college will he tested this year. There are no gaping holes in this defense (as far as a mid level college team is concerned). There is enough experience and depth For the most part. And this year will be an experiment: Can a mid level college team run a pro style defense? This year also will not definitively suggest that it’s not possible. But a lot of blowout losses will question whether we think it’s worth waiting another year. And, I think, more wins or mostly competitive games would indicate that it’s worth sticking it out another year as a do or die year.

But no one is suggesting we wait 5 more years being atrociously bad. Also, I would argue that to suggest losing is a foregone conclusion seems a bit of a stretch given how atrocious we were last year and how competitive we played many good teams for 3 quarters. I think experience will do well.

Also, we are several years deep into this experiment, why cut ties before actually getting to test the hypothesis. Especially when this year and next will provide quite a bit of insight and as long as we can show improvement ( and as long as the recruiting is good enough to be competitive), why not stick it out. The upside is very high. The cost is one year (or two)
 
#214      
ILL_INI
Dude said:
Collegiate underclassman. Which not many can
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Nor upperclassmen:

2016 Defensive Depth Chart - what Lovie had to work with. Does not include Hardy Nickerson, Jr. (SR) and Gimel President (SR), who transferred in, or incoming freshmen.
DE1 Dawuane Smoot (SR) Brandon Roberts (JR)
DT1 Chunky Clements (SR) Jamal Milan (R-FR)
DT2 Robert Bain (SR) Tito Odenigbo (R-SO)
DE2 Carroll Phillips (SR) Henry McGrew (R-SO)
WLB James Crawford (JR) Justice Williams (R-FR)
MLB Tre Watson (SO) Mike Svetina (SR)
SLB Julian Jones (SO) Austin Roberts (SO)
CB1 Jaylen Dunlap (JR) Cameron Watkins (R-FR) Frank Sumpter (R-FR)
CB2 Ahmari Hayes (JR) Chris James (JR)
FS Caleb Day (SR) Julian Hylton (SO) Trenard Davis (R-FR)
SS Taylor Barton (SR) Darwyn Kelly (JR) Patrick Nelson (R-FR)
Nickel Dillan Cazley (SR) Darius Mosley (SR)
 
#215      
ILL_INI
Dude said:
So to move on from the same conversation we have had for 2 years:

The twitter is telling me that I Will had a really good practice today

https://twitter.com/x/status/1159872184627748865
https://twitter.com/x/status/1159868605359693830
https://twitter.com/x/status/1159854781294424064
https://twitter.com/x/status/1159877364421222400
https://twitter.com/x/status/1159855989237198848
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He's definitely making a push to be the starter. After the first few reports out of camp, I was wondering about the legitimacy of the summer reports of incredible throws. Yesterday, Werner sounded like BP was in the lead, at least for the start of the season. Seemed to think that IW might start later in the year, which surprised me. He said Rod Smith really likes him.
 
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#218      
Deleted member 654622
ILL_INI said:
Nor upperclassmen:

2016 Defensive Depth Chart - what Lovie had to work with. Does not include Hardy Nickerson, Jr. (SR) and Gimel President (SR), who transferred in, or incoming freshmen.
DE1 Dawuane Smoot (SR) Brandon Roberts (JR)
DT1 Chunky Clements (SR) Jamal Milan (R-FR)
DT2 Robert Bain (SR) Tito Odenigbo (R-SO)
DE2 Carroll Phillips (SR) Henry McGrew (R-SO)
WLB James Crawford (JR) Justice Williams (R-FR)
MLB Tre Watson (SO) Mike Svetina (SR)
SLB Julian Jones (SO) Austin Roberts (SO)
CB1 Jaylen Dunlap (JR) Cameron Watkins (R-FR) Frank Sumpter (R-FR)
CB2 Ahmari Hayes (JR) Chris James (JR)
FS Caleb Day (SR) Julian Hylton (SO) Trenard Davis (R-FR)
SS Taylor Barton (SR) Darwyn Kelly (JR) Patrick Nelson (R-FR)
Nickel Dillan Cazley (SR) Darius Mosley (SR)
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Ya your right. Show us the boys he had in his first year, the roster he inherited. Because a new defense should be implemented with no issues within the 6 months. Yep, totally put me in my place
 
#223      
Deleted member 524120
I'm predicting 7-5 possibly 8-4. This offense is going to be dynamic, fast, and have fewer mistakes than last year. We will average more than 30 pts per game, with the exception of a few opponents. If the defense can take a few steps forward I believe we win against several teams in nail biters. I don't drink orange cool aid but I'm buying coaches, "we're carrying a bigger stick this year", comment. Go Illini!!!
 
#224      
Deleted member 631370
saukee said:
from what ive seen and read about IW in practice I sure hope we have a future Kyler Murray on our hand
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That would be awesome.

Though Kyler was the #1 dual threat QB prospect in the nation coming out of HS, recruited by just about everybody for his QB skills. And once at Oklahoma, he was protected by one of the best O-lines in the nation, had guys like Trey Sermon, Kennedy Brooks, and Rodney Anderson (before he got hurt) to hand the ball to and keep the defenses honest, and had elite WRs like Marquise Brown and CeeDee Lamb.

We have a long way to go to surround him with the sort of talent needed to enable that kind of play.
 
#225      
Calvin
OrangeSoda said:
4 wins with two being Mich, and NW means we lost two out of 4 against Akron, Connecticut, EMU, and Rutgers... Hard pass.

Also wanted to drop this. Always find this article interesting each year:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://athlonsports.com/college-football/big-ten-coaches-talk-anonymously-about-conference-foes-2019?amp&ved=2ahUKEwi_-_20hfbjAhXTo54KHY__BR4Q0PADegQICBAT&usg=AOvVaw29Yk0ftWS8tGF6N-XG8RlG
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Here's another, apologies if already posted: BIG Coaches Ranked

Lovie at 13 without comment. I'm not optimistic about the coming season. I love college football, so I'll enjoy it anyway. I don't think the BIG will have a dominant team, so it wouldn't surprise me at all to see us shutout of the playoff. I'd much rather have a format where the conference champs went to the playoff, but if it's a 2 loss team, I doubt it will.

If we have some highlights this season, I'll be satisfied. A game or two that we surprise people and show some potential will make me happy. Not expecting any consistency, or ability to hang with the top teams even at home.
 
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