For those who wish to dissect a pattern relative to what Robert is talking about, I decided to look at our attendance in the past decade and more. These are the times we have drawn 45k or more (or approximately 75% of the stadium's capacity once it was reduced to 60,670) since after our 2008 season, when I think our enthusiasm from the Rose Bowl season was still very clearly alive:
2010: 62,870 vs. #2 Ohio State on 10/2 at 11:00 am
2009: 62,870 vs. #13 Penn State on 10/3 at 2:30 pm
2009: 62,870 vs. Michigan State on 10/10 at 11:00 am
2009: 62,347 vs. Illinois State on 9/12 at 6:00 pm
2016: 60,670 vs. North Carolina on 9/10 at 6:30 pm
2011: 60,670 vs. #22 Michigan on 11/12 at 2:30 pm
2009: 60,523 vs. Northwestern on 11/14 at 11:00 am
2010: 60,119 vs. Michigan on 10/31 at 2:30 pm
2010: 55,549 vs. Minnesota on 11/13 at 11:00 am
2011: 55,229 vs. Ohio State on 10/15 at 2:30 pm (ILL ranked #16)
2011: 54,633 vs. #15 Wisconsin on 11/19 at 11:00 am
2010: 53,550 vs. Indiana on 10/23 at 11:00 am
2011: 53,243 vs. Northwestern on 10/1 at 11:00 am (ILL ranked #22)
2010: 52,217 vs. Southern Illinois on 9/11 at 6:30 pm
2015: 51,515 vs. #3 Ohio State on 11/14 at 11:00 am
2011: 50,843 vs. #22 Arizona State on 9/17 at 6:00 pm
2010: 50,569 vs. Northern Illinois on 9/18 at 11:00 am
2014: 50,373 vs. Iowa on 11/15 at 11:00 am
2010: 50,371 vs. Purdue on 10/30 at 11:00 am
2009: 48,538 vs. Fresno State on 12/5 at 11:30 am
2012: 47,981 vs. Indiana on 10/27 at 11:00 am
2013: 47,362 vs. #25 Wisconsin on 10/19 at 7:00 pm
2016: 47,144 vs. Michigan State on 11/5 at 11:00 am
2012: 46,912 vs. Minnesota on 11/10 at 2:30 pm
2013: 46,890 vs. Miami (OH) on 9/28 at 11:00 am
2012: 46,734 vs. Penn State on 9/29 at 11:00 am
2012: 46,539 vs. Louisiana Tech on 9/22 at 7:00 pm
2013: 45,895 vs. Michigan State on 10/26 at 2:30 pm
2015: 45,438 vs. Wisconsin on 10/24 at 11:00 am
2012: 45,369 vs. Charleston Southern on 9/15 at 11:00 am
2011: 45,154 vs. Arkansas State on 9/3 at 2:30 pm
2014: 45,046 vs. Purdue on 10/4 at 11:00 am
From a very initial scanning of this, it seems to me that all of the usual excuses BESIDES having a losing program fall apart pretty quickly. Game times? Our best attendance was an 11:00 am game, and so was #3. Weather?? We sold more tickets for a game in DECEMBER vs. Fresno State of all teams than we have in years! Lack of name opponents? We drew more for a game vs. Illinois State than we have for a Big Ten opponent since before Lovie... Other teams bringing the fans? I don't see much of a pattern for that.
The true pattern, with obvious "flukes" present as there are in every dataset, seems to be that when Illinois fans feel the program has an ounce of hope and that they might be able to head to Memorial Stadium with a semi-optimistic outlook, they're happy to go! Does anyone think we don't WANT the tailgating traditions and atmosphere and pageantry of Wisconsin or Iowa? Do you really think the people in Illinois wouldn't love to flock into packed taverns on Saturdays to watch a "local" team the same way folks do in those other states? People just do not want to invest in a hopeless cause, but they've proven they'll buy back in quickly if there's a glimmer of hope!
When you look at the trajectory there, I think there is a clear picture of a slightly larger contingent giving up with each new disappointment. 2009 was a massive disappointment, but we still had so much talent in the program, and it's pretty easy to see a bump in enthusiasm in 2010 and 2011 when we were back to being a bowl-going program. As a fellow diehard, I wish people would just attend because it's fun to be there and hope for the wins to come, but ... it's not realistic.
If we have an optimistic start to the year, I actually DO think you will start to see the bump. I wouldn't expect more than 35-40k for the opener vs. Wyoming, but if we beat them and then win in Bloomington, IN the next week ... I bet you will see more than 40k and possibly more than 45k in Memorial Stadium when a 2-0 (1-0) Illini team takes on Virginia the following Saturday. If we were to beat UVA and Chattanooga to start 4-0 and at least look respectable losing in Madison ... I guarantee you will see a great crowd vs. Iowa the next week. We have every chance to try to reinvigorate this program's fan support this year, let's do it!