Illini Football 2024

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#51      
mhuml32
illinifan4249 said:
He is modelling the defense to go from 58 to 41 but the offense to regress from 80 to 87. I think the defense taking a projected step forward is expected but we need the offense to take a big step up in order to reach 6 wins. I do believe however that this offense can be in the top half of the B1G by season's end if things go as we hope.

Overall I expect that once again we are most likely 5-6 going into the Northwestern game. I honestly wish that game wasn't the last of the season, I prefer when more of the rivalries are spread out across the season.
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For those wanting to zag the advanced modeling - here it is. All of them are expecting the defense to improve and the offense to regress. This is based on recent history, where Illinois offense has been pedestrian and defense has been the strength. The modeling expects those blips to course correct (and roughly equal out). When focusing on the personnel and coaching, it seems obvious that it's much more likely the offense takes a step (or two!) forward while the defense is a question mark at best (likely worse). The hope is the defense will hold but the offense improves to around top 6 in conference.
 
#52      
Genesis
There are options other than top 25 teams and bottom 25 teams. We should be able to schedule an opponent who will draw crowds but we still have a 75% probability of beating. Our problem is that every time we schedule a team like that 5 years out, that's a sure sign they're going to vault into the top 25 over the next 5 years (see NC and KS).
 
#53      
Old.Edgy
Illiniguy74 said:
I seem to recall a time (back in the 70s?) where when fans were surveyed, one of the biggest reasons for lack of attending football games was that we played a crappy non conference schedule. If my recollection is true, it probably played a part in our scheduling plan for any number of years. Does anyone else remember this? Loren Tate would surely know.
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Two schools of thought here... Back in the 70's (I was on campus for some post-grad work) and the teams were all decimated due to the slush fund scandal, and we weren't any good at all - think Gary Moeller bad (you youngsters think Lasagna bad) - and we wanted Prime teams because that was the only way to see ANY good football at all... That kid from Ped. St. who was going to quit football totally then came to memorial stadium to play us... Of course they won, and he changed his mind about football, and went on to win the Heisman trophy that year... And then the great OJ swarmed in from LA... the only good football people could watch was watching great teams come in here and beat the pants off of us (also on way to sell tickets)... Secondly Poor Bob Blackman was trying to get some excitement going (Bob was famous for having at least one flea-flicker play in every game). Plus we had beaten the Washington Huskies in a Rose Bowl back in 47'(?), we thought we could do that again - - - NOT... We had fond memories of Ray Eliot and his style of 'respectable football' and we were trying to get that mojo back... Visions of grandeur were still in everyone's head... Didn't work... Bo and Woody owned the top of the B1G then and we thought we should have been up there with them... we weren't ... JMHO
 
#55      
SampsonRelpenk
Genesis said:
There are options other than top 25 teams and bottom 25 teams. We should be able to schedule an opponent who will draw crowds but we still have a 75% probability of beating. Our problem is that every time we schedule a team like that 5 years out, that's a sure sign they're going to vault into the top 25 over the next 5 years (see NC and KS).
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I’m sure I’ve posted this here before but it makes no sense why football series are scheduled so many years in advance. I get that there’s more logistical issues with football vs other sports but even then it is overkill.
 
#57      
SoCal Illini
Old.Edgy said:
Two schools of thought here... Back in the 70's (I was on campus for some post-grad work) and the teams were all decimated due to the slush fund scandal, and we weren't any good at all - think Gary Moeller bad (you youngsters think Lasagna bad) - and we wanted Prime teams because that was the only way to see ANY good football at all... That kid from Ped. St. who was going to quit football totally then came to memorial stadium to play us... Of course they won, and he changed his mind about football, and went on to win the Heisman trophy that year... And then the great OJ swarmed in from LA... the only good football people could watch was watching great teams come in here and beat the pants off of us (also on way to sell tickets)... Secondly Poor Bob Blackman was trying to get some excitement going (Bob was famous for having at least one flea-flicker play in every game). Plus we had beaten the Washington Huskies in a Rose Bowl back in 47'(?), we thought we could do that again - - - NOT... We had fond memories of Ray Eliot and his style of 'respectable football' and we were trying to get that mojo back... Visions of grandeur were still in everyone's head... Didn't work... Bo and Woody owned the top of the B1G then and we thought we should have been up there with them... we weren't ... JMHO
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Some of blackmans 70s teams had some great players. Mean and/or a few screws loose, on and off the field. Larry McCarren, Scott studwell, Tom hicks, Gerry sullivan, George uremovich, tab Bennett … al kustok to name a few. So I wouldn’t say the rosters were poor, and certainly not decimated. Not as stacked as the teams they often played, unfortunately. Blackman himself was polarizing for the team, and some say he was too conservative. Those teams’ on field performance was orders magnitude better than Moeller’s, who was just hated all around, and a bad coach.

And it wasn’t OJ that that swarmed in from LA, it was Sam “Bam” Cunningham.
 
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#58      
Illiniguy74
Old.Edgy said:
Two schools of thought here... Back in the 70's (I was on campus for some post-grad work) and the teams were all decimated due to the slush fund scandal, and we weren't any good at all - think Gary Moeller bad (you youngsters think Lasagna bad) - and we wanted Prime teams because that was the only way to see ANY good football at all... That kid from Ped. St. who was going to quit football totally then came to memorial stadium to play us... Of course they won, and he changed his mind about football, and went on to win the Heisman trophy that year... And then the great OJ swarmed in from LA... the only good football people could watch was watching great teams come in here and beat the pants off of us (also on way to sell tickets)... Secondly Poor Bob Blackman was trying to get some excitement going (Bob was famous for having at least one flea-flicker play in every game). Plus we had beaten the Washington Huskies in a Rose Bowl back in 47'(?), we thought we could do that again - - - NOT... We had fond memories of Ray Eliot and his style of 'respectable football' and we were trying to get that mojo back... Visions of grandeur were still in everyone's head... Didn't work... Bo and Woody owned the top of the B1G then and we thought we should have been up there with them... we weren't ... JMHO
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Illinois Bowl History
DateBowlOpponentScore
Jan. 1, 1947RoseUCLAW, 45-14
Jan. 1, 1952RoseStanfordW, 40-7
Jan. 1, 1964RoseWashingtonW, 17-7
I became a fan in '63 listening to the game on the radio (9 years old).
 
#59      
GatorMcKlusky
SoCal Illini said:
Some of blackmans 70s teams had some great players. Mean and/or a few screws loose, on and off the field. Larry McCarren, Scott studwell, Tom hicks, Gerry sullivan, George uremovich, tab Bennett … al kustok to name a few. So I wouldn’t say the rosters were poor, and certainly not decimated. Not as stacked as the teams they often played, unfortunately. Blackman himself was polarizing for the team, and some say he was too conservative. Those teams’ on field performance was orders magnitude better than Moeller’s, who was just hated all around, and a bad coach.

And it wasn’t OJ that that swarmed in from LA, it was Sam “Bam” Cunningham.
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Blackman's best team? It was the 1974 team that finished 6-4-1. Our remarkably insane non-conference schedule? You guessed it - Stanford, Washington St., and Cal. The next year's (1975) non-conference schedule? Yup - Mizzou, Texas A&M, and Washington St. We never, ever learn.
 
#61      
Battle89
I admittedly waffle on the scheduling concept, but usually end up choosing the easy non-conference slate.

I agree a 20-point victory over South Nowhere State does not make me burst with happiness, but it still beats a 20-point loss to Mizzou or similar. Beyond the bowl or ranking considerations, it's not a small endeavor for me to travel to a game, given some health limitations I have. Sure makes that effort feel less if we win.
 
#63      
Illini4Christ
Ander1345 said:
I don't want to schedule cupcakes.
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Arizona Wildcats Football GIF by Pac-12 Network
 
#64      
unimaroon
Illiniguy74 said:
Illinois Bowl History
DateBowlOpponentScore
Jan. 1, 1947RoseUCLAW, 45-14
Jan. 1, 1952RoseStanfordW, 40-7
Jan. 1, 1964RoseWashingtonW, 17-7
I became a fan in '63 listening to the game on the radio (9 years old).
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First game I watched in "living color". The big Washington injury early in game was pivotal. I turned 9 years old the day before the game.
www.si.com

Worst Injury In Husky Football History? 5 Who Got Hurt Bad

Injuries are a part of the game. They happen to everybody. They happen way too frequently. Here are some of the worst that have affected the UW program.
www.si.com www.si.com
 
#67      
mhuml32
SampsonRelpenk said:
I’m sure I’ve posted this here before but it makes no sense why football series are scheduled so many years in advance. I get that there’s more logistical issues with football vs other sports but even then it is overkill.
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Admins like cost certainties (pay games) and there was panic when Oklahoma started scheduling games out 10 years into the future that others would follow suit and those that didn't would be left without options. Teams seem to be getting smarter lately. Michigan State just announced a ND two-game series that starts in 2026. Could also be that B1G and/or SEC are starting to pressure teams to not schedule so far into the future because they want flexibility for future conference member changes or they might want to have TV corps kick in more money for more power to schedule certain teams to face each other. I'm sure some ABC exec would pay a lot more money if they have the option to schedule a non-conference game between, say, Clemson v. Oregon instead of Oregon v. Oklahoma State.

Illinois faces a serious issue in 2026 with Duke AND Missouri on their schedule. The good is their both home games. The bad is asking to axe one of those games, or push it back to a future date, is going to cost money. Plus you'll need to pay a smaller school a good chunk of money to play our team on short notice (or worse, pay them to buy out of their game to then get paid to play Illinois instead).
 
#69      
Ryllini
We obviously aren’t Ohio St, but they have Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall. These are the type of non-cons we should be playing and probably a tick below. Where we are as a program, the only thing people will care about at the end of the day is the record. I’d imagine it is a lot easier to go into a high school representing a 6-8 win team than a 2-5 win team.
Cancel Duke and Missouri, but for sure 1 of them.
 
#71      
GatorMcKlusky
If our goal is to be Wisconsin, then schedule like Wisconsin. What part of that does Josh not understand?
 
#72      
OskieWowWow
Ryllini said:
We obviously aren’t Ohio St, but they have Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall. These are the type of non-cons we should be playing and probably a tick below. Where we are as a program, the only thing people will care about at the end of the day is the record. I’d imagine it is a lot easier to go into a high school representing a 6-8 win team than a 2-5 win team.
Cancel Duke and Missouri, but for sure 1 of them.
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Are we really scared of a Duke team that just lost their coach?
 
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