Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Illinois would have dominant resume. Because of way IU scores, SP analytics will favor them, but I am nearly certain Illinois would be selected in a heartbeat.
Illini Football 2024
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
2022 was much better to this point of the season but then fell off fairly hard, the strong performance at the Big House notwithstanding.
Our bruising, bullying run game got a bit nicked up and that offense never really had a countermove.
Hopefully this team is in a better position to finish strong.
Probably depends on the margins of victory and defeat. You could imagine a version of that where Indiana is just so obviously a much better team that it has to be them.
But two losses for Indiana and us ending with four straight wins might just as likely swing the pendulum the other way.
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Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
RE: 2022 vs. 2024, without getting into the stats and purposely just judging on my more casual perception as a fan, I would rank our Big Ten regular season performances based on how good we looked in both seasons like this. I tried to take into account the quality of the opponent a bit, but mostly this is (again) purposely meant to be an "eye test" and rely on my memory as a fan.
2022
2024
W 34-10 at Wisconsin
W 26-9 at Nebraska
L 17-19 at #3 Michigan
W 41-3 at Northwestern
W 31-24 at #22 Nebraska (OT)
W 21-7 vs. #24 Michigan
W 26-14 vs. Minnesota
L 7-21 at #9 Penn State
W 9-6 vs. Iowa
L 20-23 at Indiana
W 50-49 vs. Purdue (OT)
L 24-31 vs. Purdue
L 15-23 vs. Michigan State
I admit that this is hardly scientific, haha. For example, I might even be overrating the beatdown in Madison a bit because I watched that on my wedding day, and I could not believe we embarrassed them like that on their home field. Did we look even better beating NU 41-3? Maybe, but I was so bummed about missing out on Indy by that point that it took some of the shine off. Similarly, I bet many would think I am over-ranking the 2022 win in Lincoln, but something about the way we so methodically shut down Nebraska and the fact that it got us to that 7-1 record makes it such a fond memory.
It was also difficult to rank the bottom half. Like, yes, our defense held Iowa to only 6 points ... but we were one bad call on that fumble away from losing that one. I know Tommy went out hurt, but I think we actually looked like a "better" football team for most of the game at Penn State this year, even though we didn't score again after that first TD.
One thing I will be pretty stubborn about, though, is that the 2 consecutive losses vs. MSU and Purdue that unfortunately defined the end of the 2022 season were worse than anything we have seen this year. And that is why I think this is a tougher conversation than some might ... the 2022 team seemed more prone to a "dead period" on offense and even uncharacteristic slip-ups on defense (like letting Indiana waltz down the field for a game-winning TD that season). 2022 was undoubtedly more "solid" in a lot of ways, but I might trust Luke and this offense to get us out of a late deficit way more than the 2022 squad.
2022
2024
W 34-10 at Wisconsin
W 26-9 at Nebraska
L 17-19 at #3 Michigan
W 41-3 at Northwestern
W 31-24 at #22 Nebraska (OT)
W 21-7 vs. #24 Michigan
W 26-14 vs. Minnesota
L 7-21 at #9 Penn State
W 9-6 vs. Iowa
L 20-23 at Indiana
W 50-49 vs. Purdue (OT)
L 24-31 vs. Purdue
L 15-23 vs. Michigan State
I admit that this is hardly scientific, haha. For example, I might even be overrating the beatdown in Madison a bit because I watched that on my wedding day, and I could not believe we embarrassed them like that on their home field. Did we look even better beating NU 41-3? Maybe, but I was so bummed about missing out on Indy by that point that it took some of the shine off. Similarly, I bet many would think I am over-ranking the 2022 win in Lincoln, but something about the way we so methodically shut down Nebraska and the fact that it got us to that 7-1 record makes it such a fond memory.
It was also difficult to rank the bottom half. Like, yes, our defense held Iowa to only 6 points ... but we were one bad call on that fumble away from losing that one. I know Tommy went out hurt, but I think we actually looked like a "better" football team for most of the game at Penn State this year, even though we didn't score again after that first TD.
One thing I will be pretty stubborn about, though, is that the 2 consecutive losses vs. MSU and Purdue that unfortunately defined the end of the 2022 season were worse than anything we have seen this year. And that is why I think this is a tougher conversation than some might ... the 2022 team seemed more prone to a "dead period" on offense and even uncharacteristic slip-ups on defense (like letting Indiana waltz down the field for a game-winning TD that season). 2022 was undoubtedly more "solid" in a lot of ways, but I might trust Luke and this offense to get us out of a late deficit way more than the 2022 squad.
I think you probably put Illinois in because their losses would (presumably) be to Penn St. and Oregon (and the alternative, where beat Oregon and lose to someone else, is probably even better), and the overall schedule looks tougher.
I think the impact of those "top-25" victories will be a lot smaller than you imagine. Yes, Nebraska was a top 25 team early in the season at the time we beat them. But Indiana also played Nebraska, and beat them far more handily than we did. Kansas is clearly not the team preseason voters thought they were. If Indiana loses to Michigan (as in your scenario), obviously that helps us. If Indiana thrashes them (and I dunno, their other loss is a close one to Washington or MSU), that could be another team that we beat, but Indiana beat "better."
A lot of it would also probably depend on how Indiana loses its two games (and how we lose our 2nd). If they get drubbed, it would hurt them in the advanced metrics, which would help us. If they keep it close, the way they've been blowing opponents out will continue to give them an edge in the advanced stats.
Rarely do we get to talk about comparing resumes, great times. Regarding the metrics, clearly the 2nd half Purdue hurt a lot and I'm betting if we didn't completely take the foot off the gas in the 4th qtr vs Michigan we could have made a significant move up
“Now in his 11th year as a head coach in the Big Ten, it has become clear that Bielema is the quintessential coach for the oldest conference in major college athletics.”
This is pretty much my belief at this point.
Zook I always had mixed feelings about for all his Zooky reasons. But it never felt like he belonged here.
I absolutely despised Beckman from the very first press conference and my opinion only went downhill from there. The worst representative of the university in its 157 year history. He was a complete and utter embarrassment and his final downfall proved that beyond all doubt.
Of course I’m forgetting about Bill Cubit, and a lot people do.
I was 100% behind the Lovie hire when it was made. I thought his NFL-junior strategy was going to be game changing. It wasn’t. Or it was, in that it changed our game for the worse. By the end, I was 100% against Lovie. The Miles Smith debacle was the final blow. He never got the college game, and was too complacent and indifferent to learn it.
Then came Bielema. And I have loved every part of it. He’s the perfect embodiment of everything we are and should always be. A big doughy bullheaded midwesterner with red cheeks and a chip on his shoulder about everything. This might be the hill I die on, but after decades backing this program, I genuinely believe that if we can’t win with Bielema, we can’t win with anybody. And guess what? We ARE winning.
Not sure where to place this, but here goes. The chart compares performance so far this year (KFord rating) versus team talent composite (from 247). The data show a decent correlation between the number of 4- and 5-stars and team performance. KFord (and the other rating systems) don't value the Illini's performance so far, but our guys do outperform their talent. Indiana is the outlier here, of course, and Ohio State (!) is also exceeding its talent composite (KFord has them at #1). Wonderful to see Michigan and Purdue leading the underachievers.
Love how far they had to extend the chart just to accommodate Purdue.
Great description of the football program.
If we want to make CFP, every game after Oregon is important. Otherwise, still, every game is as important.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
One more random thought before we go into the weekend ... considering how we came out and beat Michigan the following week, I am actually getting a little tired of Oregon fans and especially our own fans bringing up our performance vs. Purdue over and over again. For every Oregon fan you see saying something like "Yeah, I think we will win, but the Illini are solid" ... you get another saying, "This team gave up 49 points vs. Purdue!!" And God knows it spooked our own fans.
Don't get me wrong ... it was a really bad display. However, every single team has an off game during a given season. Can anyone honestly say that the second half of the Purdue game was closer to our "norm" for this season than the other 13 halves of football we have played?? It was easily our worst moment. God knows nobody here is judging Oregon based solely on needing a walkoff FG for a come-from-behind victory vs. Boise State or for being up 3 vs. FCS Idaho late into the 4th quarter. And nobody SHOULD judge Oregon like that ... but they also shouldn't judge us too harshly based on just Purdue.
Our opponents are currently averaging 18.1 PPG vs. our defense (which BTW is not all that far behind Oregon's 16.6...), which obviously includes Purdue scoring 49 on us. Purdue scored 46 of those points in the second half and OT. Outside of that horrid half of football, we have an average points allowed of 11.6 PPG ... so if we assume Purdue got 6 more points in the second half to correspond to that average, opponents would be averaging 12.4 PPG vs. the Illini defense. That would have us tied as the 6th best defense in the nation, ahead of the likes of Penn State (14.5), Oregon (16.6) and Georgia (16.9).
TL;DR
I'm not saying it's fair to ignore the second half of the Purdue game. However, I am pretty confidently declaring it a fluke (see stats above for proof). We have a good defense, and we have an offense that - while sometimes methodical and not scoring a ton of points - is capable of moving the ball and generally takes care of the ball, too. We very well might lose handily at Oregon tomorrow, but it will be because Oregon is damn good and that is a difficult place to play ... not because everyone saw the "real Illini" vs. Purdue. Because they absolutely did not.
Don't get me wrong ... it was a really bad display. However, every single team has an off game during a given season. Can anyone honestly say that the second half of the Purdue game was closer to our "norm" for this season than the other 13 halves of football we have played?? It was easily our worst moment. God knows nobody here is judging Oregon based solely on needing a walkoff FG for a come-from-behind victory vs. Boise State or for being up 3 vs. FCS Idaho late into the 4th quarter. And nobody SHOULD judge Oregon like that ... but they also shouldn't judge us too harshly based on just Purdue.
Our opponents are currently averaging 18.1 PPG vs. our defense (which BTW is not all that far behind Oregon's 16.6...), which obviously includes Purdue scoring 49 on us. Purdue scored 46 of those points in the second half and OT. Outside of that horrid half of football, we have an average points allowed of 11.6 PPG ... so if we assume Purdue got 6 more points in the second half to correspond to that average, opponents would be averaging 12.4 PPG vs. the Illini defense. That would have us tied as the 6th best defense in the nation, ahead of the likes of Penn State (14.5), Oregon (16.6) and Georgia (16.9).
TL;DR
I'm not saying it's fair to ignore the second half of the Purdue game. However, I am pretty confidently declaring it a fluke (see stats above for proof). We have a good defense, and we have an offense that - while sometimes methodical and not scoring a ton of points - is capable of moving the ball and generally takes care of the ball, too. We very well might lose handily at Oregon tomorrow, but it will be because Oregon is damn good and that is a difficult place to play ... not because everyone saw the "real Illini" vs. Purdue. Because they absolutely did not.
Noblesville Illini
- Nappanee, IN
Someone tell me when we are gonna start seeing the typical BB O lines. We are too undersized. Praying this year’s recruiting class beefs up that line. D Line too. Less obvious on that side of the ball though.
Schedule setup nice this year then. 2 teams above kford ratings, rest even or below.
Besides kruetz we are not undersized
JC Davis 6’5 320lbs
Henderson 6’5 335lb
Crisler 6’6 335lb
Wigenton 6’5 330lb
Gesky 6’5 325lb
Whitenack 6’7 340lb
The linemen who haven’t played this year are just as big.
NoblesvilleIllini is 7'11" 499lb.
If anything our guys on the d line are a little undersized but they are also very young.
size is important , but so is attitude , strength & quickness
Besides for Kruetz our starters are the bigger than the Bears starting OL. Technique, blocking schemes, leverage..etc
Jacas and Johnny both played with great leverage and extension. That’s why they would constantly rag doll players that were much bigger. A lot of times bigger players have poor bend and balance.
Technically, Illinois has not defeated a ranked team either, and will likely have zero wins against ranked teams at season end. BUT, I do agree that if Illinois wins out they advance over Indiana on strength of losing to PSU and ORE who will likely also be in the playoff.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Never in a trillion years would that be the logic if we were talking about Tennessee and LSU or something.
We aren't in Indiana's league. Good for them, not our problem.
I called it earlier in the week that the pressure was on Lunney to manufacture 5 TDs to win which he obviously didn't do.
So, I did a quick analysis to see what our baseline expectations should be on offense. Lunney joined the team in 2022 so I focused on P5 vs P5 games since the start of the 2022 season (this year is P4).
The conclusion is that we lose games because of our offense, not our defense. My assertion is that anyone who wants to blame our defense for losses needs to recalibrate their expectations for the modern college game.
Since the start of the 2022 season there have been 707 games played when both teams were a member of a Power 5 conference (Power 4 this year). Note this is not counting today's games.
Of those 707 games the winning team scores a median 34 points. Illinois has scored 34 points or more only 4 times since Lunney took the realm. I want to emphasize this is in P5 vs P5 games.
Focusing on Illinois 13 losses heading into today the offense has scored an average of 17.8 points with a median of 17 points. Since 2022 teams that score less than 18 points have a 7% chance of winning a P5 matchup.
Looking at the defense in those same losses, the defense has given up an average of 26.8 points with a median of 33 points. Since 2022 teams that give up 27 points or less win 68% of the time. Teams that give up 33 points or less win 51% of the time.
Its clear to me that despite some struggles the defense has significantly and drastically outplayed the offense since Lunney arrived, and the offense is to blame for our losses.
Edit: Over same timeframe a Defense that gives up 38 points would've still won 28% of the time.
So, I did a quick analysis to see what our baseline expectations should be on offense. Lunney joined the team in 2022 so I focused on P5 vs P5 games since the start of the 2022 season (this year is P4).
The conclusion is that we lose games because of our offense, not our defense. My assertion is that anyone who wants to blame our defense for losses needs to recalibrate their expectations for the modern college game.
Since the start of the 2022 season there have been 707 games played when both teams were a member of a Power 5 conference (Power 4 this year). Note this is not counting today's games.
Of those 707 games the winning team scores a median 34 points. Illinois has scored 34 points or more only 4 times since Lunney took the realm. I want to emphasize this is in P5 vs P5 games.
Focusing on Illinois 13 losses heading into today the offense has scored an average of 17.8 points with a median of 17 points. Since 2022 teams that score less than 18 points have a 7% chance of winning a P5 matchup.
Looking at the defense in those same losses, the defense has given up an average of 26.8 points with a median of 33 points. Since 2022 teams that give up 27 points or less win 68% of the time. Teams that give up 33 points or less win 51% of the time.
Its clear to me that despite some struggles the defense has significantly and drastically outplayed the offense since Lunney arrived, and the offense is to blame for our losses.
Edit: Over same timeframe a Defense that gives up 38 points would've still won 28% of the time.
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Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Agreed for both teams. If IU gets blown out at Ohio State, an 11-1 IU might still get passed over. They have had a very easy schedule, with 8 home games and only 1 road game against a ranked foe. They have taken advantage of their schedule, but it is still difficult to assess how good they are.
I will laugh so hard if Purdue knocks them out of the CFP.
You realize we have a head coach that wants a ball control offense
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
My issue with yesterday is I felt we had a game plan to lose from the get go against a team we knew was going to score regardless of how the defense played.
We win the toss and deferred - normally I get that’s the right play but also opened up to what happened, which is early on they scored quickly, crowd got into it, and our philosophy was off schedule after 2 drives that we couldn’t play these ultra long drives.
A lot of conservatism on the opening offensive drives. I get your unlikely to convert that first 3rd and 15 but at the same time, running a draw just ended the possession in a game where you had a down to let your top WRs try to make a play. In any version that we upset them, we were going to have to make a few very low percentage plays.
This was a game to take risks on both sides to try to have splash plays to keep us in. Instead we ran the Penn state playbook against a team that wasn’t gonna beat itself, miss open throws, or have 100 yards in penalties with a 6 year QB at the helm.
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