Illini Football 2025

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#26      
Genesis
Being ranked high at the beginning of the season will be a huge boost for us because we'll likely stay high after each win. Our finish to 2024 gives us an opportunity to be ranked high when we get to the OSU game so that, even with a loss there, we should be able to stay high enough for CFP conversations. If we were starting the year out of the rankings, we'd likely never get high enough even with all the wins we're expecting. Thank you 2024 Illini.
 
#28      
BrimfieldBomber
lstewart53x3 said:
This graph says it all:

View attachment 39577

We were 4-1 in one score/overtime games and USC was 3-5. Flip the win percentages and that gives us 2 less wins and USC 3 more wins.

We then go 8-5 and USC goes 10-3.

USC was quite a bit better than their record indicated, and we were slightly worse.

That said—give me the overperfoming team every time.
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This also shows why Duke was not appropriate for that bowl game vs Ole Miss. Yes the ACC is/was bad, but it also showed how much they lucked themselves into that record.
 
#29      
OrangeBlue98
chibar said:
interesting Friday night game discussion. Selfishly I have not cared as I do not watch high school football. But now I'm thinking that if the HS students you are recruiting are playing, that means they are missing the games and when they tune in on Saturday they don't see Illinois on tv
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I also think Fridays should be reserved for high school sports. However, unfortunately TV money rules everything now.

I do really like the idea of that first game being on a Thursday, however. It's the Thursday prior to Labor Day weekend, so you may get a lot of people taking Friday off to start a four-day weekend anyway. Perhaps you see people with high-school aged kids and an interest in the university saying they'll make a two-day trip out of things where they watch the game Thursday night, stay over Friday, and then do some campus touring on Friday (I did this many years ago on a Friday campus visit followed by a Saturday football game). As I mentioned earlier, playing the game on Thursday gives the team a couple of extra days to iron out anything from the first game before their road trip to Duke.

The drawback would be that if you're anticipating, say, 55,000 for a Saturday and then maybe 50,000 or 45,000 for the first game on a Thursday, you might lose some fans for that game. But I personally feel like the buzz around the team is really high and you'll have a great Thursday night crowd - particularly if the weather and sunset looked like it did for the 2024 opener.
 
#31      
BalloonsTheElephant
lstewart53x3 said:
This graph says it all:

View attachment 39577

We were 4-1 in one score/overtime games and USC was 3-5. Flip the win percentages and that gives us 2 less wins and USC 3 more wins.

We then go 8-5 and USC goes 10-3.

USC was quite a bit better than their record indicated, and we were slightly worse.

That said—give me the overperfoming team every time.
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I'm pretty sure our strategy is to play close games and just execute better down the stretch. It's a feature of our coaching strategy, and a reason my blood pressure is always high.

To his credit, Bret has become more aggressive in a lot of situations. Sometimes when we are up, it still gets dialed back too much. But overall he's been much better.
 
#32      
mhuml32
Dkayak said:
So they ranked us 38th at the end of our 10-3 season. Then how did we even get into the Citrus Bowl, much less win it? What sort of algorithm gets us to 38th at the end of last season? How many weeks were we ranked vs weeks ranked for USC? Are the polls that terribly wrong? Or is KFord’s methodology?
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The short response: Power rankings =/ resume rankings.

Illinois football finished around the 15th best resume in CFB last year, but that doesn't mean Illinois would be favored against the 16th or 20th ranked team, because spreads are focused on power rankings (predictive performance).
 
#33      
Fighter of the Nightman
Genesis said:
Being ranked high at the beginning of the season will be a huge boost for us because we'll likely stay high after each win. Our finish to 2024 gives us an opportunity to be ranked high when we get to the OSU game so that, even with a loss there, we should be able to stay high enough for CFP conversations. If we were starting the year out of the rankings, we'd likely never get high enough even with all the wins we're expecting. Thank you 2024 Illini.
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Yep. Let's say we enter at #13, as ESPN has us in their way too early top 25. This is how I would imagine our ranking changing if we kept winning.

Western Illinois at #13 Illinois ... Assume a W and move up a spot.
#12 Illinois at Duke ... Assume a W and a jump into the top 10.
vs. Western Michigan at #9 Illinois ... Assume a W and move up a spot.
---> Indiana is preseason #17 and VERY likely to be 3-0 before we come to town, so let's say they're up to #13 or so.
#8 Illinois at #13 Indiana ... this would be a SERIOUSLY hyped game! This would one be tough, but it's not unwinnable! Win, and we could even be top 5 with help from other upsets. Lose, and we likely remain in the top 12 or so.

So, obviously this is a scenario that assumes we can win at Duke and be 3-0 going into the Indiana game, but you are talking a ranking range of #5 to #15 heading into the USC home game. That would create SERIOUS hype around this program for the second straight year and really help to continue to build out our fan base and improve recruiting momentum. Then you have a winnable-if-tough home game vs. USC and a road trip to what is hopefully a fairly bad Purdue team. If we are 4-2 or better heading into the Ohio State game on October 11th, that game will be seriously hyped up by the networks ... if we are 5-1 or better, it will almost certainly be the first choice by the networks (other Big Ten matchups that weekend are meh), and we would have an excellent chance at getting College Gameday or at least Big Noon Kickoff.

Point is you are 100% correct. Whereas last year's team had to start 3-0 and beat a top 20 opponent to sneak into the top 25 at #24 and our 2022 team had to get to 6-1 just to get that same #24 ranking, this year's team will START with the respect/hype and will need to actively lose it. That's a good place to be in the age of NIL and conference expansion, etc.
 
#34      
Battle89
lstewart53x3 said:
This graph says it all:

View attachment 39577

We were 4-1 in one score/overtime games and USC was 3-5. Flip the win percentages and that gives us 2 less wins and USC 3 more wins.

We then go 8-5 and USC goes 10-3.

USC was quite a bit better than their record indicated, and we were slightly worse.

That said—give me the overperfoming team every time.
Click to expand...
Non-Block I or non-Block-M logos need not apply!

1739303593166.png
 
#35      
Dkayak
mhuml32 said:
The short response: Power rankings =/ resume rankings.

Illinois football finished around the 15th best resume in CFB last year, but that doesn't mean Illinois would be favored against the 16th or 20th ranked team, because spreads are focused on power rankings (predictive performance).
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That’s my interpretation. It ignores coaching and conditioning, as well as mental/motivational factors.
 
#42      
Iamgroot
redwingillini11 said:
Didn't he leave us off the end of season top 25? I appreciate any hype for the program, but this guy kind of seems like a bit of a media clown.
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Yea he did and I completely agree with you.i think it's part of the reason he said what he said that and also the odds in my opinion were way lower from 10-3 team that is bringing back like 18 or more starters back to win the big ten
 
#43      
ptgrd23
In this age of NIL and transfer portal we have our QB returning, most of our offense and defense returning.

Key losses - WR Bryant, WR Franklin, LB Seth Coleman

Assuming we don't lose anybody key to portal in spring we should be a very good team next year. Yes we won all the close ones last year but so did KC Chiefs and everybody expects them to be back in Super Bowl next year.
 
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