Illini Football 2025

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#152      
skyIdub
Ok, I know it’s war and it’s terrible, and full disclosure…I have beach front reservations in hell….but I cant stop laughing 🤣🤣🤣

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41K likes, 288 comments - thecollegefootballu on June 13, 2025: "CFB fans are talking about College Football in Iran’s replies😭 “How mad you think Iran is that they’re trying to establish themselves as a true power and people are arguing about Kirby Smart in the replies.” 😂😂😂 CFB fans are just...
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#154      
Fly Illini Fly!
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:
Will 10-2 get us in or not?
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This is simply one of those questions where the optimists answer yes and the pessimists answer no... and the truth is there's no absolute answer other than somewhere in between.

You can very obviously draw up a scenario where we won't get in, and can just as easily draw up a scenario where we will. Truth be told - if we didn't lose to Minnesota and went 10-2 last year, we would not have gotten in, but every year is different.

I think in most likelihood it simply comes down to how the committee weighs 10-2 Big Ten vs 9-3 SEC (or if things go completely BONKERS, 9-3 Big Ten vs 8-4 SEC). Basically does losing one more game as an SEC team still get you the nod over a Big Ten team. But that too is extremely situational based on the schedules - if it's 9-3 Tennessee, there's virtually no way I see them being rated above 10-2 Illinois... but if it's 9-3 Florida, that could get interesting.

If I had to bet I'd say 10-2 with our schedule will get you in more times than not but it can definitely go the other way based on schedule, committee bias, how many teams overperform, etc.
 
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#155      
GrayGhost77
Fly Illini Fly! said:
This is simply one of those questions where the optimists answer yes and the pessimists answer no... and the truth is there's no absolute answer other than somewhere in between.

You can very obviously draw up a scenario where we won't get in, and can just as easily draw up a scenario where we will. Truth be told - if we didn't lose to Minnesota and went 10-2 last year, we would not have gotten in, but every year is different.

I think in most likelihood it simply comes down to how the committee weighs 10-2 Big Ten vs 9-3 SEC (or if things go completely BONKERS, 9-3 Big Ten vs 8-4 SEC). Basically does losing one more game as an SEC team still get you the nod over a Big Ten team. But that too is extremely situational based on the schedules - if it's 9-3 Tennessee, there's virtually no way I see them being rated above 10-2 Illinois... but if it's 9-3 Florida, that could get interesting.

If I had to bet I'd say 10-2 with our schedule will get you in more times than not but it can definitely go the other way based on schedule, committee bias, how many teams overperform, etc.
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It also depends on who you lose to and who you beat, as well as how you look doing it. If we lost to tOSU on a last second field goal and USC in five OTs as our two losses, and crushed everyone else, Id say that's a pretty compelling case to get in. Barely squeak out a bunch of wins but get crushed by tOSU and Indiana and it would depend a lot more on other scenarios.
 
#156      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
Fly Illini Fly! said:
This is simply one of those questions where the optimists answer yes and the pessimists answer no... and the truth is there's no absolute answer other than somewhere in between.

You can very obviously draw up a scenario where we won't get in, and can just as easily draw up a scenario where we will. Truth be told - if we didn't lose to Minnesota and went 10-2 last year, we would not have gotten in, but every year is different.

I think in most likelihood it simply comes down to how the committee weighs 10-2 Big Ten vs 9-3 SEC (or if things go completely BONKERS, 9-3 Big Ten vs 8-4 SEC). Basically does losing one more game as an SEC team still get you the nod over a Big Ten team. But that too is extremely situational based on the schedules - if it's 9-3 Tennessee, there's virtually no way I see them being rated above 10-2 Illinois... but if it's 9-3 Florida, that could get interesting.

If I had to bet I'd say 10-2 with our schedule will get you in more times than not but it can definitely go the other way based on schedule, committee bias, how many teams overperform, etc.
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maybe this is just my ignorance (and if it is call me out), i don't think I ever remember seeing through twelve games in the CFP rankings era that there's been a 10-2 big ten team rated below a 9-3 sec team, or 9-3 big ten rated below a 8-4 sec. now obviously the sec is stronger than ever and there's more chance of that happening, but i really don't recall seeing that and my guess would be it's a rare cause.

for me i think it's how many Indianas and SMUs there are. the more there are of those teams in addition to the superpowers (texas, georgia, bama, clemson, etc) then it becomes much less likely.
GrayGhost77 said:
It also depends on who you lose to and who you beat, as well as how you look doing it. If we lost to tOSU on a last second field goal and USC in five OTs as our two losses, and crushed everyone else, Id say that's a pretty compelling case to get in. Barely squeak out a bunch of wins but get crushed by tOSU and Indiana and it would depend a lot more on other scenarios.
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this is mostly true, however my main pushback would be that due to the constant half-witted media narratives (ESPN, etc) the talk will always be "how many did you play out Oregon/Ohio State/Penn State" (we only play one). they won't look at the overall picture (including your "good" deeds, like margin of victory) nearly as much as they'll spend time trying to tear apart your resume for made up, irrelevant reasons that will never apply to the top-tiered Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Clemson (same as it was with Indiana last year; now obviously not playing those close games significantly helps you). when you are that dark-horse, non big-name program, you're immedeatly put at a disadvantage because of it. Different topic, but it's why I think "running up the score" should be much more relevant now when you are that type of team trying to make a college football playoff.
 
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#157      
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?
GrayGhost77 said:
It also depends on who you lose to and who you beat, as well as how you look doing it. If we lost to tOSU on a last second field goal and USC in five OTs as our two losses, and crushed everyone else, Id say that's a pretty compelling case to get in. Barely squeak out a bunch of wins but get crushed by tOSU and Indiana and it would depend a lot more on other scenarios.
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i agree it helps, but SMU would have had 3 losses if Duke could make a 30 yard FG among many other close games and still got in over Bama, South Carolina, Ole Miss, etc.
 
#161      
Mr. Tibbs
BretMyBeachHouse said:
I'm pretty skeptical that we'll have a 10-2 year.

That said, I think last year took a lot of shine off the SEC and I can imagine some carry over. OSU's win plus ours after people debating whether SC deserved to get in really put the. In their place.
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10-2 is really only possible if we get a little lucky like last year AND we don’t have injuries to important players .

is it likely we go 10-2 ?
no . but certainly possible .
 
#164      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
i don't think we lose any game outside of Ohio State/Washington/Duke/IU/USC. if we book OSU a loss for the sake of common sense, i think 2-2 is the most reasonable outcome in the other 4 games. that would put you at 9-3 and a very good season.
 
#166      
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
i don't think we lose any game outside of Ohio State/Washington/Duke/IU/USC. if we book OSU a loss for the sake of common sense, i think 2-2 is the most reasonable outcome in the other 4 games. that would put you at 9-3 and a very good season.
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i think anything between 8-4 and 10-2 I'd sign up for. Anything below that - while it still is a good season by Illinois standards - it's a step back and I wonder whether it qualifies as maintaining the status built up throughout last year (and into this offseason with all the retention/accumulation of talent).
 
#167      
SoCal Illini
Mr. Tibbs said:
it comes down to a few things
good line play ,good quarterback , but most importantly it’s doing the fundamentals properly .

for once , we are strong in doing the basic things really well . that’s why we won about 2 games last year we normally wouldn’t .

luck played a part in 2 w’s . but doing the important little things really well is why we were 10-3. it’s why we should win 9+ this year
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Totally agree. On all levels the fundamentals are often overlooked in favor of fancy schemes (which is great, but usually contingent on things like being able to block/basics). Coaches often get bored and/or expect the players to already know them, which is a mistake. Glad Illini coaches seem to take the time. As others have said, that’s often the difference in close games.

I was watching an interview with a Delta Force guy. At the start of their training, regardless of previous experience, they start with the most basic fundamentals and repeat them over and over. Philosophy is if you don’t have a good foundation, you won’t be able to do the fancy things well. Not a novel concept but if the best military unit in the world does it, there must be some validity. Stakes are a bit higher if they screw up though
 
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#168      
the juiceman cometh
MajorNathanMaxwellJanice said:
https://www.espn.com/college-footba...-college-football-sp+-rankings-every-fbs-team
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#19. All part of ESPN's conspiracy to underrate us in some rankings and rank us appropriately in others.

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#169      
GatorMcKlusky
Mr. Tibbs said:
10-2 is really only possible if we get a little lucky like last year AND we don’t have injuries to important players .

is it likely we go 10-2 ?
no . but certainly possible .
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I still think the one position that we really improved ourselves in the offseason is the backup QB. I know Leary was well-liked by coaches and fans, but he didn't beat ND in South Bend last year.
 
#170      
the Castle on Daniel
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:
i think anything between 8-4 and 10-2 I'd sign up for. Anything below that - while it still is a good season by Illinois standards - it's a step back and I wonder whether it qualifies as maintaining the status built up throughout last year (and into this offseason with all the retention/accumulation of talent).
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We have no reason to be disappointed in 8-4, but this is probably our best shot for the foreseeable future at getting the CFP on our resume. Even if we lose in the first round, it will elevate our profile considerably on the recruiting trail and in the portal. The program could take a humungous step forward if we go 11-1 or 10-2, even if 10-2 doesn't get us into the CFP.

After this year, Missouri is on the schedule most years until 2035. I'd love for us to keep that game indefinitely, but that puts us at 11 "real" games next year because we also play Duke. Our 2026 conference schedule is interesting. We get Iowa, Nebraska, Oregon, and Purdue at home and play @ Maryland, MSU, NW, OSU, and UCLA, but we'll lose a lot of production. I think 6-6 or 7-5 is very likely and since we don't have a legacy of sustained success, that may adversely impact recruiting and retention.

I know this isn't the realignment thread, but if the league expands to 20 and reimplements divisions, we may end up with a somewhat favorable path to a division title game and conference championship game. Assuming #19 is ND (B1G assumption), we'd likely be in a division with ND, Purdue, Indiana, and maybe Maryland? I think Northwestern could get grouped with Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska unless #20 is an ACC team.
 
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#171      
the juiceman cometh
the Castle on Daniel said:
We have no reason to be disappointed in 8-4, but this is probably our best shot for the foreseeable future at getting the CFP on our resume. Even if we lose in the first round, it will elevate our profile considerably on the recruiting trail and in the portal. The program could take a humungous step forward if we go 11-1 or 10-2, even if 10-2 doesn't get us into the CFP.

After this year, Missouri is on the schedule most years until 2035. I'd love for us to keep that game indefinitely, but that puts us at 11 "real" games next year because we also play Duke. Our 2026 conference schedule is interesting. We get Iowa, Nebraska, Oregon, and Purdue at home and play @ Maryland, MSU, NW, OSU, and UCLA, but we'll lose a lot of production. I think 6-6 or 7-5 is very likely and since we don't have a legacy of sustained success, that may adversely impact recruiting and retention.

I know this isn't the realignment thread, but if the league expands to 20 and reimplements divisions, we may end up with a somewhat favorable path to a division title game and conference championship game. Assuming #19 is ND (B1G assumption), we'd likely be in a division with ND, Purdue, Indiana, and maybe Maryland? I think Northwestern could get grouped with Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska unless #20 is an ACC team.
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See, I don't think this is true. Our 2026 recruiting class is looking like our best in many many years, and that's before we've even put together back to back winning seasons, which this program still hasn't done since the Zook era. If we can get to 8 wins it'll be the first time we've won at least 8 games in consecutive seasons in over 35 years. With the playoff likely expanding to 16 teams in the near future, I think we are certainly finally putting ourselves in a position where we will have opportunities to get in, potentially even better opportunities than this season. I get your concern about 2026 but keep in mind the transfer portal exists, and we'd hopefully be coming off a 2nd successful year in a row.
 
#172      
BretMyBeachHouse
the juiceman cometh said:
See, I don't think this is true. Our 2026 recruiting class is looking like our best in many many years, and that's before we've even put together back to back winning seasons, which this program still hasn't done since the Zook era. If we can get to 8 wins it'll be the first time we've won at least 8 games in consecutive seasons in over 35 years. With the playoff likely expanding to 16 teams in the near future, I think we are certainly finally putting ourselves in a position where we will have opportunities to get in, potentially even better opportunities than this season. I get your concern about 2026 but keep in mind the transfer portal exists, and we'd hopefully be coming off a 2nd successful year in a row.
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I imagine people think this is our best chance for the foreseeable future are focusing on Luke. The QB spot is so critical to high level success. I think we've got another top flight QB in the offing. But you never know how any of these guys pan out.

I'm of the opinion that with the portal and our recruiting, we'll be able to fill the QB hole at a high level in the future. Look at the other offensive pieces we're putting together and we're very likely a great destination for a great transfer QB in the event the recruits don't pan out.
 
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