Illini Football 2025

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#276      
the juiceman cometh
Optimism is good. We have every reason to feel optimistic right now.

That is very different from feeling like we are destined or entitled to what amounts to the best of possible outcomes, or that we have this in the bag. I'm seeing a lot of sentiment in this category the last few weeks. Rare to see in the football forum but has been known to appear preseason in the basketball forum. Where it leads is disappointment (even in the face of a reasonably good season), and recrimination (with some people even wanting a very successful coach to be replaced).

This might be "The Year." Or it might not be. No matter what happens though things are headed in a good direction. It would really bum me out if we went 7-5 or 8-4 and people started turning on the staff for not meeting these lofty new expectations.
 
#277      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
GoodePodzMelendez said:
This is a new day. We bring back the best OL in the conference, the best QB and we replenished the WR room. Our defense will be better than last year. I think we win can go undefeated. OSU is at home and possibly Washington on the road will be tough but not impossible to win. Indiana? Duke? USC, sorry, they do not stack up.
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2 of those 3 are on the road, and I'd say very likely 2 of those 3 are ranked when we play them, and all three are top 30-35 teams in the country. What are by percentage the chances we get through all of them with a W (in simpler terms, basically start 6-0)? Don't think there's anyway the answer to that question is >50%. To think we'll do it without even breaking a sweat is just deelu.
 
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#278      
Illinicpa14
IlliniFanTX said:
The 2024 Jayhawks are the EXACT reason I'm not on this "we're going 10-2" hype train lol we were a couple close games from 6-6 last year. Now I DO think Bielema is a difference in those close games and I'm hopeful we continue to win them. But looking back, we very nearly lost to Purdue, Rutgers and Nebraska last year. Totally different story if we don't win those.
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I’ve had this same feeling…but I’d also say that penn state game could have gone different, and we saw how they did vs a respected South Carolina team.

That tells me the team is legit to be able to hang and beat those types of programs.
 
#279      
RabidDawgClassic
Illinicpa14 said:
I’ve had this same feeling…but I’d also say that penn state game could have gone different, and we saw how they did vs a respected South Carolina team.

That tells me the team is legit to be able to hang and beat those types of programs.
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There are many reasons to be optimistic — the most of which is that we have a greatly experienced team with the confidence that it knows how to win close games. I’m more optimistic about Illinois football than I have been since the very early 90s.

But despite how experienced this team is, we’re not at the caliber where we can reasonably dismiss any major conference team. Can we beat anybody on our schedule? Sure… even Ohio State if we play focused and limit our mistakes. But we’re going to find ourselves in tight games all season, simply because Bielema prefers a tight, time-of-possession-controlled style of play that doesn’t lend itself to runaway blowouts.
 
#280      
phats22
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since 2021 (BB first season)
Kan- 22-28 (13 conf wins)
Neb- 19-30 (10 conf wins)
ILL- 28-22 (18 conf wins)

also, removing the best season (which for every team was w/n past 2 yrs)-

Kan- 13-24 (8 conf wins)
Neb- 12-24 (7 conf wins)
ILL- 18-19 (12 conf wins)

yes, i think its justifiable to be excited about the prospects for this season based on the programs trajectory, not just last seasons results. we have been significantly better during BB time here, not just a one hit wonder- like Kansas, Neb is still at bat.....
 
#281      
Fighter of the Nightman
IlliniFanTX said:
The 2024 Jayhawks are the EXACT reason I'm not on this "we're going 10-2" hype train lol we were a couple close games from 6-6 last year. Now I DO think Bielema is a difference in those close games and I'm hopeful we continue to win them. But looking back, we very nearly lost to Purdue, Rutgers and Nebraska last year. Totally different story if we don't win those.
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I've posted this before, but you could just as easily say things finally balanced out. This is very high-level and of course subjective, but I would consider the following games from Bielema's time here to all be games that could have realistically gone either way, with the winning team requiring anywhere from a little to a TON of luck to come out on top. This excludes CLOSE games where I felt the winning team simply grinded out the victory but didn't experience any especially lucky or game-changing breaks (e.g., us winning the Citrus Bowl or losing at Iowa in 2023). These are more my attempt at finding the games where there was a fluke or luck aspect that was especially noticeable:

2021
L 17-20 vs. Maryland
L 9-13 at Purdue
W 20-18 at #7 Penn State (9 OT)
L 14-20 vs. Rutgers

2022
L 20-23 at Indiana
W 9-6 vs. Iowa
L 15-23 vs. Michigan State
L 24-31 vs. Purdue
L 17-19 at #3 Michigan

2023
L 21-25 vs. Wisconsin
W 27-26 at Minnesota
W 48-45 vs. Indiana (OT)
L 43-45 vs. Northwestern

2024
W 50-49 vs. Purdue (OT)
W 38-31 at Rutgers

People can obviously argue about what I included, but I feel comfortable with this. Nothing more than my subjective and biased opinion, but we didn't "get lucky" in wins vs. Kansas and Nebraska last year like we (obviously) did at Rutgers. Additionally, a one-possession loss to Minnesota last year was not really "unlucky" ... they just beat us. So with that said, here is the trend:

2021: 1-3
2022: 1-4
---> 2-7 overall
2023: 2-2
---> 4-9 overall
2024: 2-0
---> 6-9 overall

It's pretty hard to deny we had some awful luck early on, and the more interesting development would be if we were still not experiencing any breaks our way! I still can't process how we managed to lose vs. Maryland in 2021, and our 2022 team got ESPECIALLY screwed multiple times, with the most egregious being vs. Indiana where we literally had a clear touchdown and field goal taken away from our points total and lost by three points! The alleged shenanigans in the MSU or Purdue or Michigan losses are more subjective, but we actually just got straight-up screwed vs. IU.

I suspect (and hope) this year is going to be our "most normal" one yet, with a bit less craziness. I think this team is built to take care of business right out of the gate, bring a more consistent effort and draw on its experience with close games in crunch time. Will we have highs and lows?? Of course. However, I simply do not see this forecasted "regression to the norm" because we won a lot of close games last season ... because I think it was winning those games that was the balancing out of our luck in the first place!
 
#282      
the juiceman cometh
phats22 said:
View attachment 42721View attachment 42722

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since 2021 (BB first season)
Kan- 22-28 (13 conf wins)
Neb- 19-30 (10 conf wins)
ILL- 28-22 (18 conf wins)

also, removing the best season (which for every team was w/n past 2 yrs)-

Kan- 13-24 (8 conf wins)
Neb- 12-24 (7 conf wins)
ILL- 18-19 (12 conf wins)

yes, i think its justifiable to be excited about the prospects for this season based on the programs trajectory, not just last seasons results. we have been significantly better during BB time here, not just a one hit wonder- like Kansas, Neb is still at bat.....
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I think you're kind of missing the point of the Kansas comparison. Kansas went 9-4 and then was ranked preseason the following season with a lot of key contributors returning. They had every reason to be optimistic as well, but instead they had a tough season. In an inverse of us last season, they lost a lot of close, tough games (including against us), particularly early on. They were actually a pretty good team and beat some good competition later in the season but a 1-5 start was just too much to overcome. For every team that has a lot go right in a given season (us last year) there's a team that has just as much go wrong.

And I don't think it's fair to call what Leipold has done at Kansas a "one-hit wonder." What you showed is steady improvement over his three seasons before last season. This is a program that had lost at least 9 games in 11 straight seasons before he took over.
 
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#283      
phats22
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I've posted this before, but you could just as easily say things finally balanced out. This is very high-level and of course subjective, but I would consider the following games from Bielema's time here to all be games that could have realistically gone either way, with the winning team requiring anywhere from a little to a TON of luck to come out on top. This excludes CLOSE games where I felt the winning team simply grinded out the victory but didn't experience any especially lucky or game-changing breaks (e.g., us winning the Citrus Bowl or losing at Iowa in 2023). These are more my attempt at finding the games where there was a fluke or luck aspect that was especially noticeable:

2021
L 17-20 vs. Maryland
L 9-13 at Purdue
W 20-18 at #7 Penn State (9 OT)
L 14-20 vs. Rutgers

2022
L 20-23 at Indiana
W 9-6 vs. Iowa
L 15-23 vs. Michigan State
L 24-31 vs. Purdue
L 17-19 at #3 Michigan

2023
L 21-25 vs. Wisconsin
W 27-26 at Minnesota
W 48-45 vs. Indiana (OT)
L 43-45 vs. Northwestern

2024
W 50-49 vs. Purdue (OT)
W 38-31 at Rutgers

People can obviously argue about what I included, but I feel comfortable with this. Nothing more than my subjective and biased opinion, but we didn't "get lucky" in wins vs. Kansas and Nebraska last year like we (obviously) did at Rutgers. Additionally, a one-possession loss to Minnesota last year was not really "unlucky" ... they just beat us. So with that said, here is the trend:

2021: 1-3
2022: 1-4
---> 2-7 overall
2023: 2-2
---> 4-9 overall
2024: 2-0
---> 6-9 overall

It's pretty hard to deny we had some awful luck early on, and the more interesting development would be if we were still not experiencing any breaks our way! I still can't process how we managed to lose vs. Maryland in 2021, and our 2022 team got ESPECIALLY screwed multiple times, with the most egregious being vs. Indiana where we literally had a clear touchdown and field goal taken away from our points total and lost by three points! The alleged shenanigans in the MSU or Purdue or Michigan losses are more subjective, but we actually just got straight-up screwed vs. IU.

I suspect (and hope) this year is going to be our "most normal" one yet, with a bit less craziness. I think this team is built to take care of business right out of the gate, bring a more consistent effort and draw on its experience with close games in crunch time. Will we have highs and lows?? Of course. However, I simply do not see this forecasted "regression to the norm" because we won a lot of close games last season ... because I think it was winning those games that was the balancing out of our luck in the first place!
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thanks for posting this! was thinking the same, we had much worse luck than we should have early, last year seemed to be regression to mean (close games win last year)
also, i do think good teams create their own luck so heartening to see that number improve
 
#284      
phats22
the juiceman cometh said:
I think you're kind of missing the point of the Kansas comparison. Kansas went 9-4 and then was ranked preseason the following season with a lot of key contributors returning. They had every reason to be optimistic as well, but instead they had a tough season. In an inverse of us last season, they lost a lot of close, tough games, particularly early on. They were actually a pretty good team and beat some good competition later in the season but a 1-5 start was just too much to overcome. For every team that has a lot go right in a given season (us last year) there's a team that has just as much go wrong.

And I don't think it's fair to call what Leipold has done at Kansas a "one-hit wonder." What you showed is steady improvement over his three seasons before last season. This is a program that had lost at least 9 games in 11 straight seasons before he took over.
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true (esp re: Leipold, thats not what i think about him though i do think conference record is interesting) but you'd agree Kansas fans were justified to be excited before their season, right?

my post was more in response to the commentary on preseason expectations. i get it, its summer, we're antsy. but we have more reason to have high expectations for this year than we've had for a very long time.
does that mean the season will go the way we want? no, but it doesnt mean its on to be optimistic at present
 
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#285      
IlliniFanTX
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I've posted this before, but you could just as easily say things finally balanced out. This is very high-level and of course subjective, but I would consider the following games from Bielema's time here to all be games that could have realistically gone either way, with the winning team requiring anywhere from a little to a TON of luck to come out on top. This excludes CLOSE games where I felt the winning team simply grinded out the victory but didn't experience any especially lucky or game-changing breaks (e.g., us winning the Citrus Bowl or losing at Iowa in 2023). These are more my attempt at finding the games where there was a fluke or luck aspect that was especially noticeable:

2021
L 17-20 vs. Maryland
L 9-13 at Purdue
W 20-18 at #7 Penn State (9 OT)
L 14-20 vs. Rutgers

2022
L 20-23 at Indiana
W 9-6 vs. Iowa
L 15-23 vs. Michigan State
L 24-31 vs. Purdue
L 17-19 at #3 Michigan

2023
L 21-25 vs. Wisconsin
W 27-26 at Minnesota
W 48-45 vs. Indiana (OT)
L 43-45 vs. Northwestern

2024
W 50-49 vs. Purdue (OT)
W 38-31 at Rutgers

People can obviously argue about what I included, but I feel comfortable with this. Nothing more than my subjective and biased opinion, but we didn't "get lucky" in wins vs. Kansas and Nebraska last year like we (obviously) did at Rutgers. Additionally, a one-possession loss to Minnesota last year was not really "unlucky" ... they just beat us. So with that said, here is the trend:

2021: 1-3
2022: 1-4
---> 2-7 overall
2023: 2-2
---> 4-9 overall
2024: 2-0
---> 6-9 overall

It's pretty hard to deny we had some awful luck early on, and the more interesting development would be if we were still not experiencing any breaks our way! I still can't process how we managed to lose vs. Maryland in 2021, and our 2022 team got ESPECIALLY screwed multiple times, with the most egregious being vs. Indiana where we literally had a clear touchdown and field goal taken away from our points total and lost by three points! The alleged shenanigans in the MSU or Purdue or Michigan losses are more subjective, but we actually just got straight-up screwed vs. IU.

I suspect (and hope) this year is going to be our "most normal" one yet, with a bit less craziness. I think this team is built to take care of business right out of the gate, bring a more consistent effort and draw on its experience with close games in crunch time. Will we have highs and lows?? Of course. However, I simply do not see this forecasted "regression to the norm" because we won a lot of close games last season ... because I think it was winning those games that was the balancing out of our luck in the first place!
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Always love and appreciate your responses, Fighter! I do have to say that Nebraska game... if they don't overturn that pick in the endzone in the first half, I don't see a road forward where we won that game. I was there, the Big Red fanbase had all the momentum and that pick completely deflated the stadium. Not saying it was a "lucky" win by any means, but we needed that call. Just like we needed the TD call in the Indiana game in 2022... (still angry about that one lol)
 
#286      
Ander1345
phats22 said:
true (esp re: Leipold, thats not what i think about him though i do think conference record is interesting) but you'd agree Kansas fans were justified to be excited before their season, right?

my post was more in response to the commentary on preseason expectations. i get it, its summer, we're antsy. but we have more reason to have high expectations for this year than we've had for a very long time.
does that mean the season will go the way we want? no, but it doesnt mean its on to be optimistic at present
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Big difference is everyone was just wondering at what point they would lose Daniels because of all the punishment he takes.

They had one of the best RB's in the country in Neal but Daniels was just in harms way too much.
 
#287      
GoodePodzMelendez
Fly Illini Fly! said:
2024 Nebraska would also qualify. They had it very penciled in they were starting the year 7-0 before a game vs OSU.

Comments like the bolded have been of such haunting I'm not even sure I have a wish to face them. And you'd have to be clueless if you think we're going to run through all three of those games without breaking a stride, like a walk in the park.
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Why can’t we? Shoot IU almost did it last year. You guys just are poisoned by the past.. I get that. I have confidence that we will be in the playoffs.
 
#290      
king dad runnerup
Fighter of the Nightman said:
2024
W 50-49 vs. Purdue (OT)
W 38-31 at Rutgers

People can obviously argue about what I included, but I feel comfortable with this. Nothing more than my subjective and biased opinion, but we didn't "get lucky" in wins vs. Kansas and Nebraska last year like we (obviously) did at Rutgers. Additionally, a one-possession loss to Minnesota last year was not really "unlucky" ... they just beat us.
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Fighter, I, too, read your well-researched posts with interest. I'd like to add "postgame win expectancy" numbers (Bill Connelly) from last year (wish I had them for 2022-23). The best takeaway from the table is that we dominated the last four opponents of the season, even though the games were close on the scoreboard.

Illinois PGWE.jpg


Surprisingly, Illinois "should" have won the Rutgers game. And they made the miracle play to do it. Our guys had an 83% chance of winning, because of the yards per play differential (7.0 to 4.8) and turnover advantage (the Illini fumbled twice but recovered both; Rutgers fumbled once and lost the ball).

As you say, Illinois was lucky to beat Purdue, who had a 74% probability of winning. And your call that Illinois didn't get lucky v Nebraska is backed up by the numbers. On the other hand, the data say that Kansas, Minnesota, and Michigan could reasonably have gone either way. Illinois won two of the three. In sum, the data say that Illinois "should" have won 8.2 games last year and were the 10th luckiest team in the country.
 
#292      
WyattEarp
the juiceman cometh said:
Optimism is good. We have every reason to feel optimistic right now.

That is very different from feeling like we are destined or entitled to what amounts to the best of possible outcomes, or that we have this in the bag. I'm seeing a lot of sentiment in this category the last few weeks. Rare to see in the football forum but has been known to appear preseason in the basketball forum. Where it leads is disappointment (even in the face of a reasonably good season), and recrimination (with some people even wanting a very successful coach to be replaced).

This might be "The Year." Or it might not be. No matter what happens though things are headed in a good direction. It would really bum me out if we went 7-5 or 8-4 and people started turning on the staff for not meeting these lofty new expectations.
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Harry Potter GIF
 
#293      
Fly Illini Fly!
Ander1345 said:
Big difference is everyone was just wondering at what point they would lose Daniels because of all the punishment he takes.

They had one of the best RB's in the country in Neal but Daniels was just in harms way too much.
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He's back this season. His highs are truly really high, his lows are also really low. One of the nation leaders in picks... he'll have games like IL, but will also have games like against Iowa State.
 
#299      
RJK01
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Obviously by SEC standards, depends how good everyone turns out, etc... but no way their schedule is "easy." I see 7-5
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On the other hand, they win 10 games and Drinkwitz leaves for another job. Though Walton money could influence him to stay.
 
#300      
Point-Illinois
Does the Walton money flow to Miznoz?

They are based in Bentonville, AR. (Wife worked in that town for awhile)

It’s like 20 minutes from Fayetteville, AR so I always assume the Waltons pumped their fortune in that direction. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
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