As I start to consider what my ~official~ predictions are for this season, I was looking back at the past three seasons ... and there are two things I am fairly sure of going into this year:
1. Our results will not play out totally "as expected." This might be obvious (it's college sports, after all!), but the pattern with Bielema's Illini teams is pretty unmistakable.
2. There will not be a game where we simply lie down and get spanked, including vs. OSU at home. Oregon last year was the first game since Bielema's first year where we were just straight-up not competitive at any point, with the only one that year being the bizarre Homecoming beatdown vs. Wisconsin. Even in blowout losses like PSU in 2023, we were in a tight game into the second half. I don't see an Oregon debacle with this year's schedule ... fingers crossed.
So, here are the last three years' results:
2022
W0 - W 38-6 vs. Wyoming
W1 - L 20-23 at Indiana
W2 - W 24-3 vs. Virginia
W3 - BYE WEEK
W4 - W 31-0 vs. Chattanooga
W5 - W 34-10 at Wisconsin
W6 - W 9-6 vs. Iowa
W7 - W 26-14 vs. Minnesota (ILL #24)
W8 - BYE WEEK
W9 - W 26-19 at Nebraska (ILL #17)
W10 - L 15-23 vs. Michigan State (ILL #16)
W11 - L 24-31 vs. Purdue
W12 - L 17-19 at #3 Michigan
W13 - W 41-3 at Northwestern
BG - L 10-19 vs. #22 Mississippi State
2023
W1 - W 30-28 vs. Toledo
W2 - L 23-34 at Kansas
W3 - L 13-30 vs. #7 Penn State
W4 - W 23-17 vs. FAU
W5 - L 19-44 at Purdue
W6 - L 7-20 vs. Nebraska
W7 - W 27-24 at Maryland
W8 - L 21-25 vs. Wisconsin
W9 - BYE WEEK
W10 - W 27-26 at Minnesota
W11 - W 48-45 vs. Indiana (OT)
W12 - L 13-15 at #16 Iowa
W13 - L 43-45 vs. Northwestern
2024
W1 - W 45-0 vs. Eastern Illinois
W2 - W 23-17 vs. #19 Kansas
W3 - W 30-9 vs. Central Michigan
W4 - W 31-24 at #24 Nebraska (OT) (ILL #24)
W5 - L 7-21 at #9 Penn State (ILL #19)
W6 - BYE WEEK
W7 - W 50-49 vs. Purdue (OT) (ILL #23)
W8 - W 21-7 vs. #24 Michigan (ILL #22)
W9 - L 9-38 at #1 Oregon (ILL #20)
W10 - L 17-25 vs. Minnesota (ILL #24)
W11 - BYE WEEK
W12 - W 38-16 vs. Michigan State
W13 - W 38-31 at Rutgers (ILL #25)
W14 - W 38-28 vs. Northwestern at Wrigley (ILL #23)
BG - W 21-17 vs. #15 South Carolina (ILL #20)
And here is this year's schedule, using the preseason Coaches Poll:
2025
W1 - vs. Western Illinois
W2 - at Duke
W3 - vs. Western Michigan
W4 - at #19 Indiana
W5 - vs. USC
W6 - at Purdue
W7 - vs. #2 Ohio State
W8 - BYE WEEK
W9 - at Washington
W10 - vs. Rutgers
W11 - BYE WEEK
W12 - vs. Maryland
W13 - at Wisconsin
W14 - vs. Northwestern
So first, a couple things I noticed from the last three seasons:
- We are 5-0 coming off of a bye week. Chalk it up to coincidence or Bret's great coaching, but the pattern is that we win if we have that extra week to prepare. Let's hope this bodes well for a tough trip to Seattle in Week 9 this year!
- There does seem to be a bit of a "comedown" pattern after a seemingly huge, potentially season-changing win. I think our 2022 beatdown at Nebraska REALLY got folks believing even more than they were after the Minnesota/Iowa wins ... but we unfortunately followed it up with the MSU loss in front of a huge crowd at home. In 2023, the upset at Maryland seemed to be that "lightbulb moment" where the team finally might gain some momentum ... and we suffered a heart-breaking (if unfair) loss to Wisconsin on Homecoming. In 2024, both the statement win at Nebraska and the fairytale victory vs. Michigan were followed by losses, at Penn State and at Oregon, respectively. While I will be optimistic this won't happen with a more veteran team that has experienced winning, I wouldn't be surprised by a scenario where we sweep Indiana and Duke and drop a home game to USC or where we win at Washington but can't get out of Madison with a W.
- It also needs to be said that - regardless of injuries, refs or whatever other factors affected the outcome - there is almost always a HOME game between Week 6 and Week 10 where our effort and execution just looks totally off. Faked injuries or no, we did NOT bring it vs. MSU in 2022, period. Our 2023 home game vs. Nebraska (on the heels of Butkus' passing) was a huge opportunity in primetime to get a much needed win, and we gave a puke-worthy performance. Last year, when we could have really used a bounce-back victory after the Oregon loss, we instead dropped the ball vs. Minnesota at home. Again ... hoping this year's veteran squad avoids this!
- I'm decently confident that 2023 is the fluke here, and the patterns to notice (if there even are any, lol...) are in 2022 and 2024. We lost a ton of production from the 2022 squad, our home opener was vs. an abnormally good mid-major team, we had a very tough road test at KU early and you could just tell it took us a long time to get our footing. Even if we count super frustrating losses to Wisconsin, at Iowa and ESPECIALLY vs. Northwestern, the 2023 team pretty clearly was playing a lot better football after the Maryland win.
- Lastly, we always seem due for one game where we just bring our A+ effort and look great. Hell, you could even argue that this game for 2022 was a LOSS at Michigan, given how good that Michigan team was and the absolute bogus call that allowed them to win it. In 2024, I would argue these games were the Nebraska and Michigan games; from my novice POV, it just seemed like we looked like a legit, solid football team from start to finish in both.
TL;DR
Given some of the patterns from the last couple of years and while trying to take into account our experience and returning production, I think this is my final prediction for wins and losses this year ...well, "final" for now, anyway.
2025
W1 - W vs. Western Illinois ... Methodical, impressive beatdown to start the season. ILL 1-0.
W2 - at Duke ... I originally thought we might lose here, because this game is the exact type we lose all the time - a non-conference road test that could gain us momentum, lol. However, I really think we will come out dialed in, and I am not sure Duke is as good as I thought they were. However, I think it will be close going into the fourth quarter. ILL 2-0.
W3 - vs. Western Michigan ... Very similar to the CMU game last year, we might look slightly shaky/slow early, but we will eventually pull away for a comfortable win on paper. ILL 3-0.
W4 - at #19 Indiana ... 5-0 seems ambitious given the two road tests, but I literally think Bret will WILL us to victory over Cignetti if it costs him his life.
I also think our guys will understand the hype and importance of this one, with both teams at 3-0 records, ranked and effectively fighting for the title of the REAL "New Kid on the Block" in the Big Ten hierarchy. With that said, I could easily see a loss and I think we escape by the skin of our teeth ala Nebraska last year. ILL 4-0.
W5 - vs. USC ... I think this will KIND OF be our "WTF performance" this year, and we will trail for most of the game and just look like we are in a total funk and comedown from the emotional Indiana win. ILL 5-0.
W6 - at Purdue ... I think they will be that bad, plus I think our guys will be more than eager to lay a beatdown on the Boilers after the last few years. ILL 6-0.
W7 - L vs. #2 Ohio State ... Given our 6-0 record, the atmosphere at Memorial Stadium will be INSANE and unlike anything we have seen in decades. The buzz will actually get to OSU a bit and pump us up, and this one will be a nail biter. However, I think OSU makes some key plays to ice it in the fourth quarter, and the Illini get their first loss. ILL 6-1.
W8 - BYE WEEK
W9 - at Washington ... I know I said above we are great off of a bye week, but we are also generally TERRIBLE going to the Pacific Time Zone. Add that to Washington having the second longest home winning streak in the nation, and I think this is one we drop on the road. ILL 6-2.
W10 - vs. Rutgers ... A surprisingly shaky and scary win, ala Purdue last year but not quite as crazy as that one. I think we are trailing in the fourth quarter but end up winning by 10 due to a very late field goal. ILL 7-2.
W11 - BYE WEEK
W12 - vs. Maryland ... I was keeping this one as a possible "WTF loss," but I really don't think Maryland will be that good, they don't have the weird juju over us in football like they do in hoops and we will be coming off of a bye week. ILL 8-2.
W13 - at Wisconsin ... I went back and forth with this one, but I think after getting to our 8-2 record and knowing all that is on the line with a potential CFP berth in sight, Bret and the boys bring maximum effort and are able to put away a Wisconsin team that is possibly (and hopefully!) psychologically broken by this point in the season given their brutal schedule. I will also predict this as the game we FINALLY get to see #BPOTR. ILL 9-2.
W14 - vs. Northwestern ... Whether this game is for a spot in the CFP, a ticket to another premier bowl game or just simply for pride ... there is no way I think this squad drops a Senior Day game at home vs. the Kitty Cats. ILL 10-2.
I won't predict anything further other than we are PLAYOFF-BOUND, BABY! Big difference from last season some of the years before is that this team is able to survive its "off games" to hang on to an extra win or two.
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