Illini Football 2025

Status
Not open for further replies.
#102      
CaptainCrutch
I know it’s a common opinion that if we get to 10-2 we’re a lock to get in. I’m really high in this team but I just don’t see it as a sure thing. If we go 10-2 I can still see voters saying “OSU came into town and Illinois couldn’t handle the moment in a perfect environment. IU pantsed them. Why give them a spot when we know they’re not take contenders?”

I would say we deserve the berth at 10-2. Absolutely. But I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion. If we’re 10-2 and Nebraska is 11-1 the brand gets them in. I think USC gets in over us at 11-1, and they might get in at 11-2 if the other loss is Oregon or ND. Michigan at 10-2, capitalized with a win over OSU, might just have the momentum to receive an (undeserved) bid. I think you have to win out and you’ve gotta have some style points too.
 
#103      
STLini25
CaptainCrutch said:
I know it’s a common opinion that if we get to 10-2 we’re a lock to get in. I’m really high in this team but I just don’t see it as a sure thing. If we go 10-2 I can still see voters saying “OSU came into town and Illinois couldn’t handle the moment in a perfect environment. IU pantsed them. Why give them a spot when we know they’re not take contenders?”

I would say we deserve the berth at 10-2. Absolutely. But I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion. If we’re 10-2 and Nebraska is 11-1 the brand gets them in. I think USC gets in over us at 11-1, and they might get in at 11-2 if the other loss is Oregon or ND. Michigan at 10-2, capitalized with a win over OSU, might just have the momentum to receive an (undeserved) bid. I think you have to win out and you’ve gotta have some style points too.
Click to expand...
You named 3 scenarios that aren’t going to happen.

No shot Nebraska is going 11-1. No shot USC is going 11-1. No shot Michigan is going 10-2.
 
#106      
CaptainCrutch
STLini25 said:
You named 3 scenarios that aren’t going to happen.

No shot Nebraska is going 11-1. No shot USC is going 11-1. No shot Michigan is going 10-2.
Click to expand...

See, the problem here is that you’re thinking I’m saying it is “likely” that Illinois would miss the CFP at 10-2, when I’m not.

I’m disagreeing with people saying Illinois is “a lock” or “guaranteed” to get in at 10-2. I listed out several possible (and maybe equally-likely) scenarios that would give the CFP a non-laughable argument to put another B1G team in over them.

Are those scenarios likely to happen? No, I wouldn’t say so. But I wouldn’t say that us running the table is a likely scenario either. I think 8-4 should be the floor. 9-3 is pretty likely. 10-2 can happen, but a five-game win streak in this conference is tough no matter how you split it.
 
#108      
Fighter of the Nightman
Illini Football's average TV viewers per game game jumped from 1.8 million to over 2.4 million thanks to the OSU game! I know some don't care about this, but I really think this stuff matters in the current climate of college sports. It would have been relatively easy (if incorrect, IMO) to claim that Illinois was a small-time drag on the Big Ten just five years ago ... that is becoming an untenable claim today, even for our haters.

Here are our TV ratings so far in thousands. Our Peacock ratings vs. Western Illinois are not public.

2,007 for #11 Illinois at Duke (11:00 am on ESPN)
330 for Western Michigan at #9 Illinois (6:00 pm on FS1)
2,261 for #9 Illinois at #19 Indiana (6:30 pm on NBC)
4,116 for #21 USC at #23 Illinois (11:00 am on FOX)
512 for #22 Illinois at Purdue (11:00 am on BTN)
5,276 for #1 Ohio State at #17 Illinois (11:00 am on FOX)

It's worth noting that our Big Noon spot with OSU was competing with Alabama/Mizzou on ABC (drew almost 7 million!) and Pitt/FSU on ESPN (drew 2 million), so I feel that is a pretty good rating; it was Big Noon's highest rating of the year besides its massive Week One for Texas/Ohio State. Our Indiana game on NBC also faced some really stiff competition that week, including Florida/Miami on ABC (6.5 million), South Carolina/Missouri on ESPN (1.8 million) and Washington/WSU on CBS (1.7 million) all at the same time.

The point is, though, a game like USC/Illinois - even with the hype! - would not have had many eyeballs on BTN or FS1. For example, Oregon's "Civil War" rivalry game only drew 585k viewers in Week Four because it was on BTN, and even massive brand draws like Michigan have only drawn about 750k on BTN. It's absolutely a chicken-and-the-egg thing, but you only get these big ratings by being on the big-time channels, and you only get on those channels if your program is in a good spot. This is a huge change from when Bret got here, and it's been awesome!!

For fun, here are the average viewers per game for Big Ten teams so far. Keep in mind it's not a HUGE sample size, but it's still interesting. Another reminder that Peacock, CBS Sports Network, SEC Network, etc. do not have publicly available ratings and are thus not included in the averages ... they would NO DOUBT drag down the average for every team that has played a game on these channels so far (9 / 18 Big Ten teams to-date).

Numbers once again in thousands:

Ohio State - 6,531
Michigan - 4,461
Oregon - 3,236
Penn State - 2,714
Illinois - 2,417
Wisconsin - 2,177
Nebraska - 2,095
USC - 2,089
Iowa - 1,908
Indiana - 1,736
Washington - 1,377
Michigan State - 1,168
Minnesota - 1,134
UCLA - 1,114
Purdue - 1,095
Rutgers - 971
Maryland - 748
Northwestern - 674
 
#110      
Pikeillinifan
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Illini Football's average TV viewers per game game jumped from 1.8 million to over 2.4 million thanks to the OSU game! I know some don't care about this, but I really think this stuff matters in the current climate of college sports. It would have been relatively easy (if incorrect, IMO) to claim that Illinois was a small-time drag on the Big Ten just five years ago ... that is becoming an untenable claim today, even for our haters.

Here are our TV ratings so far in thousands. Our Peacock ratings vs. Western Illinois are not public.

2,007 for #11 Illinois at Duke (11:00 am on ESPN)
330 for Western Michigan at #9 Illinois (6:00 pm on FS1)
2,261 for #9 Illinois at #19 Indiana (6:30 pm on NBC)
4,116 for #21 USC at #23 Illinois (11:00 am on FOX)
512 for #22 Illinois at Purdue (11:00 am on BTN)
5,276 for #1 Ohio State at #17 Illinois (11:00 am on FOX)

It's worth noting that our Big Noon spot with OSU was competing with Alabama/Mizzou on ABC (drew almost 7 million!) and Pitt/FSU on ESPN (drew 2 million), so I feel that is a pretty good rating; it was Big Noon's highest rating of the year besides its massive Week One for Texas/Ohio State. Our Indiana game on NBC also faced some really stiff competition that week, including Florida/Miami on ABC (6.5 million), South Carolina/Missouri on ESPN (1.8 million) and Washington/WSU on CBS (1.7 million) all at the same time.

The point is, though, a game like USC/Illinois - even with the hype! - would not have had many eyeballs on BTN or FS1. For example, Oregon's "Civil War" rivalry game only drew 585k viewers in Week Four because it was on BTN, and even massive brand draws like Michigan have only drawn about 750k on BTN. It's absolutely a chicken-and-the-egg thing, but you only get these big ratings by being on the big-time channels, and you only get on those channels if your program is in a good spot. This is a huge change from when Bret got here, and it's been awesome!!

For fun, here are the average viewers per game for Big Ten teams so far. Keep in mind it's not a HUGE sample size, but it's still interesting. Another reminder that Peacock, CBS Sports Network, SEC Network, etc. do not have publicly available ratings and are thus not included in the averages ... they would NO DOUBT drag down the average for every team that has played a game on these channels so far (9 / 18 Big Ten teams to-date).

Numbers once again in thousands:

Ohio State - 6,531
Michigan - 4,461
Oregon - 3,236
Penn State - 2,714
Illinois - 2,417
Wisconsin - 2,177
Nebraska - 2,095
USC - 2,089
Iowa - 1,908
Indiana - 1,736
Washington - 1,377
Michigan State - 1,168
Minnesota - 1,134
UCLA - 1,114
Purdue - 1,095
Rutgers - 971
Maryland - 748
Northwestern - 674
Click to expand...
I know it's not something many worry about, but this is critical to understand in this environment. The better our eyeballs/ratings are, the more value we add to the B1G, and the more leverage we have when it comes to rev share and the PC opportunity.

The more we improve and the better we draw on TV (and streaming), the more potential we have to drive revenue for the athletic department. And if the B1G ever makes the mistake of going to unequal rev share, this will help keep us closer to the top of the pile.

Thanks for putting this together.
 
#111      
Fighter of the Nightman
Pikeillinifan said:
I know it's not something many worry about, but this is critical to understand in this environment. The better our eyeballs/ratings are, the more value we add to the B1G, and the more leverage we have when it comes to rev share and the PC opportunity.

The more we improve and the better we draw on TV (and streaming), the more potential we have to drive revenue for the athletic department. And if the B1G ever makes the mistake of going to unequal rev share, this will help keep us closer to the top of the pile.

Thanks for putting this together.
Click to expand...
Exactly! Using last week as an example, we are an incredibly valuable school for the Big Ten. Let's focus just on football and not basketball (which is less irrelevant than some here like to think, IMO, at least as a sort of "tie breaker") or academics (which I DO think still matter, even if just for a monetary reason!). OSU is one of the classic potential culprits to ask for uneven sharing, right? Well, last week they got to continue their march to an undefeated National Championship season by...

1. Being featured on FOX's national pregame show and hyped up in front of the full nation.
2. Playing in just their second top 25 matchup of the season and potentially their last one of the regular season if Michigan doesn't get it together.
3. Playing in front of a national audience of over 5 million viewers.
4. Being showcased getting a dominant win on the road in an electric environment vs. a top 25 team ... and getting all of that "credit" while knowing the odds of us ever beating them were probably below 10%.

Everyone acts like there will be this "super league," but WHY?? Lol, I can see why Ohio State would get annoyed by a school like, say, Rutgers or Maryland allegedly "free loading" now that media markets are not as essential ... but a school like Illinois (or Iowa, Nebraska, Washington, etc.) that will pull its weight when it comes to revenue/ratings/adding to conference prestige/etc. but that OSU can still beat 9 times out of 10? That is literally Ohio State's dream partner in a conference, haha.
 
#112      
mhuml32
Northwestern is looking better than expected. I wanted to look up the Illinois v. Northwestern rivalry. Still TBD if NW makes a bowl, and I understand that NW was really bad in the 70's and 80's, but I still startled by this: The last two times that Illinois beat a Northwestern team that finished the season above .500 was 2010 (NW played way over their hands that season) and 1971! Therefore Illinois has only beaten two winning Northwestern teams over the past 54 years.
 
#113      
STLini25
mhuml32 said:
Northwestern is looking better than expected. I wanted to look up the Illinois v. Northwestern rivalry. Still TBD if NW makes a bowl, and I understand that NW was really bad in the 70's and 80's, but I still startled by this: The last two times that Illinois beat a Northwestern team that finished the season above .500 was 2010 (NW played way over their hands that season) and 1971! Therefore Illinois has only beaten two winning Northwestern teams over the past 54 years.
Click to expand...
Or once in the last 53 years 😂
 
#114      
Bucktown
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Illini Football's average TV viewers per game game jumped from 1.8 million to over 2.4 million thanks to the OSU game! I know some don't care about this, but I really think this stuff matters in the current climate of college sports. It would have been relatively easy (if incorrect, IMO) to claim that Illinois was a small-time drag on the Big Ten just five years ago ... that is becoming an untenable claim today, even for our haters.

Here are our TV ratings so far in thousands. Our Peacock ratings vs. Western Illinois are not public.

2,007 for #11 Illinois at Duke (11:00 am on ESPN)
330 for Western Michigan at #9 Illinois (6:00 pm on FS1)
2,261 for #9 Illinois at #19 Indiana (6:30 pm on NBC)
4,116 for #21 USC at #23 Illinois (11:00 am on FOX)
512 for #22 Illinois at Purdue (11:00 am on BTN)
5,276 for #1 Ohio State at #17 Illinois (11:00 am on FOX)

It's worth noting that our Big Noon spot with OSU was competing with Alabama/Mizzou on ABC (drew almost 7 million!) and Pitt/FSU on ESPN (drew 2 million), so I feel that is a pretty good rating; it was Big Noon's highest rating of the year besides its massive Week One for Texas/Ohio State. Our Indiana game on NBC also faced some really stiff competition that week, including Florida/Miami on ABC (6.5 million), South Carolina/Missouri on ESPN (1.8 million) and Washington/WSU on CBS (1.7 million) all at the same time.

The point is, though, a game like USC/Illinois - even with the hype! - would not have had many eyeballs on BTN or FS1. For example, Oregon's "Civil War" rivalry game only drew 585k viewers in Week Four because it was on BTN, and even massive brand draws like Michigan have only drawn about 750k on BTN. It's absolutely a chicken-and-the-egg thing, but you only get these big ratings by being on the big-time channels, and you only get on those channels if your program is in a good spot. This is a huge change from when Bret got here, and it's been awesome!!

For fun, here are the average viewers per game for Big Ten teams so far. Keep in mind it's not a HUGE sample size, but it's still interesting. Another reminder that Peacock, CBS Sports Network, SEC Network, etc. do not have publicly available ratings and are thus not included in the averages ... they would NO DOUBT drag down the average for every team that has played a game on these channels so far (9 / 18 Big Ten teams to-date).

Numbers once again in thousands:

Ohio State - 6,531
Michigan - 4,461
Oregon - 3,236
Penn State - 2,714
Illinois - 2,417
Wisconsin - 2,177
Nebraska - 2,095
USC - 2,089
Iowa - 1,908
Indiana - 1,736
Washington - 1,377
Michigan State - 1,168
Minnesota - 1,134
UCLA - 1,114
Purdue - 1,095
Rutgers - 971
Maryland - 748
Northwestern - 674
Click to expand...
ESPN/ABC do a better job and incorporating crowd noise into their broadcasts then just about any of the Big Ten broadcasters. I am sure SEC games are generally loader, but there is a big dropoff when flipping between networks. The crowd noise makes it seem more exciting and a viewer is more likely to stay on the channel.
 
#115      
Fighter of the Nightman
mhuml32 said:
Northwestern is looking better than expected. I wanted to look up the Illinois v. Northwestern rivalry. Still TBD if NW makes a bowl, and I understand that NW was really bad in the 70's and 80's, but I still startled by this: The last two times that Illinois beat a Northwestern team that finished the season above .500 was 2010 (NW played way over their hands that season) and 1971! Therefore Illinois has only beaten two winning Northwestern teams over the past 54 years.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I think there are two main reasons the Illinois/Northwestern rivalry has never gained any real "juice" or whatever over the years.

1. The dynamics of the fan bases are fundamentally different. Whereas instate rivalries like Iowa/Iowa State, Kansas/KSU, Arizona/ASU, Michigan/MSU, etc. are the types where you might be able to sell "House Divided" flags and it feels like both fan bases are made up of similar folks, Illinois/Northwestern has much more in common with Tennessee/Vanderbilt and Georgia/Georgia Tech than any of those. Rivalries where a massive state flagship school (whose fan base often directs its hate toward out-of-state teams...) is paired with a smaller, more academically elite private school (yes, I know GT is public) that is in a major metro but is less popular in that metro than said state flagship school? It just doesn't make for a "battle for the state" feel, and it never will.

2. More importantly and related to your post, it seems the Illini and Northwestern have never been good at the same times ... the games are rarely, if ever, that meaningful. Below is a list since 1980 of each team's total wins in that season.

2024: ILL 10, NU 4
2023: NU 8, ILL 5
2022: ILL 8, NU 1
2021: ILL 5, NU 3
2020: NU 7, ILL 2
2019: ILL 6, NU 3
2018: NU 9, ILL 4
2017: NU 10, ILL 2
2016: NU 7, ILL 3
2015: NU 10, ILL 5
2014: ILL 6, NU 5
2013: NU 5, ILL 4
2012: NU 10, ILL 2
2011: ILL 7, NU 6
2010: ILL 7, NU 7
2009: NU 8, ILL 3
2008: NU 9, ILL 5
2007: ILL 9, NU 6
2006: NU 4, ILL 2
2005: NU 7, ILL 2
2004: NU 6, ILL 3
2003: NU 6, ILL 1
2002: ILL 5, NU 3
2001: ILL 10, NU 4
2000: NU 8, ILL 5
1999: ILL 8, NU 3
1998: ILL 3, NU 3
1997: NU 5, ILL 0
1996: NU 9, ILL 2
1995: NU 10, ILL 5
1994: ILL 7, NU 3
1993: ILL 5, NU 2
1992: ILL 6, NU 3
1991: ILL 6, NU 3
1990: ILL 8, NU 2
1989: ILL 10, NU 0
1988: ILL 6, NU 2
1987: ILL 3, NU 2
1986: ILL 4, NU 4
1985: ILL 6, NU 3
1984: ILL 7, NU 2
1983: ILL 10, NU 2
1982: ILL 7, NU 3
1981: ILL 7, NU 0
1980: ILL 3, NU 0


So we have both won more than 6 games in the same season exactly once (2010, maybe not by coincidence the year of the first Wrigley game!) in 45 years, lol. To illustrate this another way, look at the four most memorable seasons for each program in that time period and how their forced instate rival looked at the time, haha.

ILLINOIS
1983: 10-2 record, Big Ten champions and a Rose Bowl appearance ... Northwestern is 2-9 and had won 6 games TOTAL in the previous 6 SEASONS.
2001: 10-2 record, Big Ten champions and a Sugar Bowl appearance ... Northwestern is 3-8 and still has 4 total bowl appearances EVER at this point.
2007: 9-4 record, historic upset of #1 OSU and a Rose Bowl appearance ... Northwestern is 6-6 (after being 4-8 the previous year) and not selected for a bowl.
2024: 10-3 record, finally feeling TRUE momentum and Citrus Bowl champions ... Northwestern is 4-8 and fired its coach recently.

NORTHWESTERN
1995: 10-2 record, Big Ten champions and a Rose Bowl appearance ... Illinois is 5-7 and trending downward fast (with the 0-win 1997 season fast approaching).
2012: 10-3 record and Gator Bowl champions ... Illinois is 2-10 in Tim Beckman's first year, lol.
2018: 9-5 record, Big Ten Championship Game appearance and Holiday Bowl champions ... Illinois is 4-8 and in its third straight season missing a bowl under Lovie.
2020: 7-2 record in a shortened season, Big Ten Championship Game appearance and Citrus Bowl champions ... Illinois is a 2-win team that hasn't had a winning regular season in over a decade and just fired its coach.
 
#116      
Fighter of the Nightman
Bucktown said:
ESPN/ABC do a better job and incorporating crowd noise into their broadcasts then just about any of the Big Ten broadcasters. I am sure SEC games are generally loader, but there is a big dropoff when flipping between networks. The crowd noise makes it seem more exciting and a viewer is more likely to stay on the channel.
Click to expand...
I agree completely when it comes to FOX at least, and I would need to revisit NBC. However, I think CBS actually does by far the best job all around of any of the Big Ten networks, and the crowd usually sounds good!
 
#117      
lstewart53x3
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Yeah, I think there are two main reasons the Illinois/Northwestern rivalry has never gained any real "juice" or whatever over the years.

1. The dynamics of the fan bases are fundamentally different. Whereas instate rivalries like Iowa/Iowa State, Kansas/KSU, Arizona/ASU, Michigan/MSU, etc. are the types where you might be able to sell "House Divided" flags and it feels like both fan bases are made up of similar folks, Illinois/Northwestern has much more in common with Tennessee/Vanderbilt and Georgia/Georgia Tech than any of those. Rivalries where a massive state flagship school (whose fan base often directs its hate toward out-of-state teams...) is paired with a smaller, more academically elite private school (yes, I know GT is public) that is in a major metro but is less popular in that metro than said state flagship school? It just doesn't make for a "battle for the state" feel, and it never will.

2. More importantly and related to your post, it seems the Illini and Northwestern have never been good at the same times ... the games are rarely, if ever, that meaningful. Below is a list since 1980 of each team's total wins in that season.

2024: ILL 10, NU 4
2023: NU 8, ILL 5
2022: ILL 8, NU 1
2021: ILL 5, NU 3
2020: NU 7, ILL 2
2019: ILL 6, NU 3
2018: NU 9, ILL 4
2017: NU 10, ILL 2
2016: NU 7, ILL 3
2015: NU 10, ILL 5
2014: ILL 6, NU 5
2013: NU 5, ILL 4
2012: NU 10, ILL 2
2011: ILL 7, NU 6
2010: ILL 7, NU 7
2009: NU 8, ILL 3
2008: NU 9, ILL 5
2007: ILL 9, NU 6
2006: NU 4, ILL 2
2005: NU 7, ILL 2
2004: NU 6, ILL 3
2003: NU 6, ILL 1
2002: ILL 5, NU 3
2001: ILL 10, NU 4
2000: NU 8, ILL 5
1999: ILL 8, NU 3
1998: ILL 3, NU 3
1997: NU 5, ILL 0
1996: NU 9, ILL 2
1995: NU 10, ILL 5
1994: ILL 7, NU 3
1993: ILL 5, NU 2
1992: ILL 6, NU 3
1991: ILL 6, NU 3
1990: ILL 8, NU 2
1989: ILL 10, NU 0
1988: ILL 6, NU 2
1987: ILL 3, NU 2
1986: ILL 4, NU 4
1985: ILL 6, NU 3
1984: ILL 7, NU 2
1983: ILL 10, NU 2
1982: ILL 7, NU 3
1981: ILL 7, NU 0
1980: ILL 3, NU 0


So we have both won more than 6 games in the same season exactly once (2010, maybe not by coincidence the year of the first Wrigley game!) in 45 years, lol. To illustrate this another way, look at the four most memorable seasons for each program in that time period and how their forced instate rival looked at the time, haha.

ILLINOIS
1983: 10-2 record, Big Ten champions and a Rose Bowl appearance ... Northwestern is 2-9 and had won 6 games TOTAL in the previous 6 SEASONS.
2001: 10-2 record, Big Ten champions and a Sugar Bowl appearance ... Northwestern is 3-8 and still has 4 total bowl appearances EVER at this point.
2007: 9-4 record, historic upset of #1 OSU and a Rose Bowl appearance ... Northwestern is 6-6 (after being 4-8 the previous year) and not selected for a bowl.
2024: 10-3 record, finally feeling TRUE momentum and Citrus Bowl champions ... Northwestern is 4-8 and fired its coach recently.

NORTHWESTERN
1995: 10-2 record, Big Ten champions and a Rose Bowl appearance ... Illinois is 5-7 and trending downward fast (with the 0-win 1997 season fast approaching).
2012: 10-3 record and Gator Bowl champions ... Illinois is 2-10 in Tim Beckman's first year, lol.
2018: 9-5 record, Big Ten Championship Game appearance and Holiday Bowl champions ... Illinois is 4-8 and in its third straight season missing a bowl under Lovie.
2020: 7-2 record in a shortened season, Big Ten Championship Game appearance and Citrus Bowl champions ... Illinois is a 2-win team that hasn't had a winning regular season in over a decade and just fired its coach.
Click to expand...
All I took away from that is:

Since 2000, Northwestern has had 18 seasons where they won 6 or more games.

Illinois in the same timespan has had just 8 seasons where they won 6 or more games.

I’ll repeat:

Northwestern: 18
Illinois: 8

How in the world does Northwestern have a football program that’s *that* much better than ours?

And there are Illini fans who will be mildly (or majorly) disappointed with *only* winning 8 or 9 games this year.
 
#118      
Fighter of the Nightman
lstewart53x3 said:
All I took away from that is:

Since 2000, Northwestern has had 18 seasons where they won 6 or more games.

Illinois in the same timespan has had just 8 seasons where they won 6 or more games.

I’ll repeat:

Northwestern: 18
Illinois: 8

How in the world does Northwestern have a football program that’s *that* much better than ours?

And there are Illini fans who will be mildly (or majorly) disappointed with *only* winning 8 or 9 games this year.
Click to expand...
They don’t anymore. 😎 But I take your point, lol.
 
#119      
GatorMcKlusky
I'd like to know more about the "Memorial Stadium Society". Did this "Society" exist before the Gies donation? What work have they done on behalf of Memorial Stadium? And what does "loosely organized" mean? "French is part of the Memorial Stadium Society, a loosely organized group of concerned individuals that has also sent letters to several newspapers, radio stations and broadcasters throughout the state and the country. They’ve also taken out ads on the subject." https://www.news-gazette.com/news/l...cle_3abdba34-6cad-4395-a2cf-75f5c3761e86.html
 
Last edited:
#120      
blackdog
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back