I was thinking today about how the "shape" of a season can really change how we feel about it. For example, there was no "high" for the 2024 season that ever approached how we all felt sitting at 7-1 and just having demolished Nebraska in Lincoln in 2022 ... but we didn't finish that season how we all would have wanted. Flipping to basketball for a second, let's use our 2002 and 2004 teams as an example. Here is an "on-paper" comparison:
--- Quick Basketball-Related Break ---
Category: 2002 ... 2004
Record: 26-9 (11-5) ... 26-7 (13-3)
Final AP Rank: #13 ... #13
Big Ten Standings: Big Ten Champions (tied) ... Big Ten Champions (outright)
Big Ten Tournament: Lost in BTT Semifinals ... Lost in BTT Championship
NCAAT Seed: #4 Seed ... #5 Seed
NCAAT Result: Sweet Sixteen ... Sweet Sixteen
Very, very similar overall. 2004 might have had a better record and won the Big Ten outright, but 2002 played a harder schedule and got a higher seed, etc. While I am sure fans would have fond memories of both, my hunch is that the 2004 team might be remembered a tad more fondly by a slim majority. Why?
For one, the 2002 team was preseason #2 while the 2004 team was preseason #12, but I think it's not really about expectations. The 2002 team sort of "felt the same" all year, even through some losing streaks and winning streaks. I think a lot of fans felt the same about our March Madness chances in mid-January when we were 13-4 and ranked #11 as they did when we were 23-7 on March 3 and ranked #15.
Conversely, the 2004 team took its lumps early and even fell out of the top 25 for a streak that lasted until February 25! But they responded to that midseason adversity by winning 12 straight games heading into the BTT Championship vs. Wisconsin (which we lost), and I think fans were feeling like they were part of some wild ride. Then our road to the Sweet Sixteen that year involved absolutely demolishing a highly-hyped #4 seed Cincinnati team (that had talked plenty of smack publicly!) before putting up a fight we just couldn't win vs. a #1 seed Duke ... and we then had everyone coming back for what we knew would be a special year in 2005.
--- Back to My Football Point ---
What if this season's exact results had occurred in a different order, simply due to the schedule? Imagine this path to 8-4 instead ... for simplicity's sake, I just used whatever our opponents' rankings ended up being on the new date we played them if it was switched.
Aug. 29 - W 52-3 vs. Western Illinois
Sept. 6 - W 45-19 at Duke
Sept. 13 - W 38-0 vs. Western Michigan
Sept. 20 - L 25-42 at Washington
Sept. 27 W 24-6 vs. Maryland
Oct. 4 - L 10-27 at Wisconsin
Oct. 11 - L 16-34 vs. #1 Ohio State
Oct. 18 - BYE WEEK
Oct. 25 - W 35-13 vs. Rutgers
Nov. 1 - L 10-63 at #2 Indiana
Nov. 8 - BYE WEEK
Nov. 15 - W 43-27 at Purdue
Nov. 22 - W 34-32 vs. #15 USC
Nov. 29 - W 20-13 vs. Northwestern
All of a sudden, it's easy to spin this positive narrative...
1) We started off "taking care of business" to get to 3-0, but we lost our first road game of the season on the West Coast. We didn't look great doing it, but it's not that big of a deal ... then we returned home and handily beat Maryland, only giving up 6 points and seemingly addressing our defensive issues.
2) We have a TOTAL dud performance at Wisconsin to fall to 3-2, but we turn around and give the OSU defense its biggest challenge to-date, even though we lost. While everyone is sad we dropped to 3-3, the fan base sees a long slate of winnable games besides at Indiana.
3) After a bye week, we handle Rutgers at home and look good doing it. We get demolished at now-#2 Indiana, but people take it more how they took the Oregon loss last year - an expected butt whoopin' vs. a top 2 team, not a shock to the system. After looking good vs. RU, we attribute the loss in Bloomington less to us and more to Indiana just being really, really good.
4) After spending a bye week recovering from the Indiana loss, we rattle off three straight victories, including a relatively easy road win in West Lafayette and finally our "signature win" vs. a top 15 USC squad. With the season ending on a 3-game winning streak and winning 4 of our last 5 and the lone loss being at #2 Indiana, we are being recognized as one of the "hotter teams in the country" heading into our bowl game.
I'm not excusing any of the issues this year, and I got as frustrated as anyone at times ... but it is food for thought.
