Yes, and Vegas set the under on 7.5 at -160, making the under the favorite.
ESPN’s FPI, which certainly isn’t perfect, but is a data point, gives us a projected win total of 6.7 games and these odds of each record total:
- 12 - 0: 0.01% chance
- 11 - 1: 0.25% chance
- 10 - 2: 2.24% chance
- 9 - 3: 8.93% chance
- 8 - 4: 19.66% chance
- 7 - 5: 26.55% chance
- 6 - 6: 23.12% chance
- 5 - 7: 13.17% chance
- 4 - 8: 4.84% chance
- 3 - 9: 1.09% chance
- 2 - 10: 0.14% chance
- 1 - 11: 0.01% chance
- 0 - 12: 0.00% chance
According to this, 7-5 is the most likely outcome of any individual record. But if you add up the percentages, there’s a 42.37% chance we go 6-6 or worse and just a 31.09% chance we go 8-4 or better.
Maybe my comment of 7-5 being the ceiling is a big exaggerated but if there’s a 40% chance of 6-6 or below, 7-5 certainly isn’t the floor.
