Generally, I have too many concerns on both lines to be over the Vegas line on the season. I'm also dubious about this defensive scheme being a success, especially in year one. Overall, it's a re-tooling year and going 7-5 a year after pushing all of their chips in would be incredible. I'm sure there would be fan disappointment if this season unfolds like I'm predicting blow and Illinois starts 6-2 and limps to 7-5.
UAB (home) - Win (38-10) 1-0
Duke (home) - Win (31-20) 2-0
SIU (home) - Win (52-3) 3-0
Ohio State (away) - Loss (38-14) 3-1
Purdue (home) - Win (28-23) 4-1
MSU (away) - Win (30-28) 5-1
BYE
Oregon (home) - Loss (41-17) 5-2
Maryland (away) - Win (33-13) 6-2
Nebraska (home) - Loss (34-24) 6-3
UCLA (away) - Loss (24-20) 6-4
Iowa (home) - Loss (19-18) 6-5
Northwestern (away) - Win (32-20) 7-5
The Maryland-Nebraska-UCLA-Iowa-Northwestern stretch to end the season is going to be tough. Maryland should be a bad football team but they have a front-loaded schedule and they have the bye week right before the Illinois game. I would say it's fairly likely that Maryland fires Locks after the Ohio State or Rutgers game and then gives their interim a week to install new schemes before they play Illinois. Then Nebraska has a rest advantage. Then Illinois has a short-week and travels to UCLA. Illinois then has a rest advantage against Iowa but the Hawkeyes will be the best team remaining on Illinois' schedule. Finally, I think Northwestern is better than last year and will be playing in their new home stadium to close out the season. The Wildcats have a really hard schedule, and their bye is week 2! They'll likely need that game to make a bowl.
I'm worried about all of the non-Ohio State road games being very winnable for a program that hasn't gone 4-1 or 3-1 on the B1G road in a long time.
