(I'm get the sense there is not much NIL for low-profile women. Maybe what there is, is comparable or above what is available at mid-majors. I really don't know.)
I imagine the decision comes down to environment and career benefits versus playing time and role.
Begin your career at a mid-major, break out and transfer up or stay and be a key player?
Begin at a high-major where you may have better facilities, support services, and competition in practices and games, and a flashier environment, travel, kit, and degree but won't play as much? Either work your way into a major role or transfer down after a year or two?
Which best fulfills the student-athlete's goals? If it's about developing into the best player they can be, arguments can be made for both. If it's overall experience, there are arguments for both as well.
Hayven Smith was here two years, probably didn't see a major role coming in year three and decided to transfer to a mid-major. Irene is entering year two at Illinois--one more year to challenge herself to attain a larger role... or maybe it's the money or other benefits that outweigh playing time.
I would guess that Ona Riopedre comes seeking an elite training environment and a challenge. Her frosh year stat averages were pretty good at the juco level, though her shot percentages were pedestrian. She didn't look like a sensation in the juco game footage that's available online. She's coming off injury. Were she a bigger deal she would have been signed earlier with a host of suitors after her. Clearly she wants a big-time environment. She takes a big step up and will be another capable body at practices, like Gisela Segura (who completed her eligibility) and Mia Zenere. If we're lucky, she'll grow into a contributor in games.
My assumption is that Lana Brenjo is in a similar place as Riopedre. A fitting replacement for Hayven, she may--a year or two from now--be in the position of Irene and Hayven. She's coming from being one of the younger players in a lower-profile European women's league where she was a starter with moderate stats. I expect that she's looking at an Irene Catoira / Hayven Smith role, which includes matching up with the bigs in practice and having opportunity there and in low-intensity and emergency minutes to prove mettle and earn a role in the rotation. Perhaps there is a little money for her, to match what she'd get from her club in Serbia; but there are other benefits to trading the Serbian women's league for the training ground of high-major US women's college basketball that includes a pathway to a free degree from Illinois and post-graduation career opportunities. Again, if we're lucky, she's got some big moves in her bag and up her sleeve.
I know that if I were back at age 18, I would appreciate the challenge and experience of a high-major year to test myself, challenge myself, and learn from the environment. On top of the prestige of the degree, I might even find value in preparing for a career in high-major coaching by attaching myself to a coach with a track record and a program with elite resources. Of course in that case, there is also value in learning to do it where resources are more limited.
