Illinois #10 in NET Rankings

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#26      
ejam21
Get yourself a new map said:
Annual reminder that a team’s place in the NET can be largely irrelevant in the eyes of the committee, so long as that team shows it is competitive in games against teams that have high NET status. St Mary’s was 11th in the NET and earned a 5-seed in 2023.
Rutgers was 77th in the NET in 2022 and made the tourney; was 40th in 2023 and got left out.
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While this is true, the logic always is a headscratcher for me

Its like if you are the #10 net team, its not relevant and youre not really the 10th best.......but if a team beats you, on their resume they have a quad1A and a note that the beat the 10th best team if hte committee closely examines.

It's like which is it ha.
 
#28      
the juiceman cometh
ejam21 said:
While this is true, the logic always is a headscratcher for me

Its like if you are the #10 net team, its not relevant and youre not really the 10th best.......but if a team beats you, on their resume they have a quad1A and a note that the beat the 10th best team if hte committee closely examines.

It's like which is it ha.
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For better or worse, it seems to be a way to incorporate analytics into the analysis, without letting analytics be the entire analysis.
 
#30      
Get yourself a new map
ejam21 said:
While this is true, the logic always is a headscratcher for me

Its like if you are the #10 net team, its not relevant and youre not really the 10th best.......but if a team beats you, on their resume they have a quad1A and a note that the beat the 10th best team if hte committee closely examines.

It's like which is it ha.
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Haha very true it will put your brain into a blender if you think too long about it.
It’s like the analytics show you are very capable of beating anybody but also - do we trust you to not lay an egg in a big game?
Like it’s impressive to go into the kohl center and beat Wisconsin or to the skojt Hall and beat IU but let’s be real these guys aren’t gonna get it done on the big stage. So the system takes all of that into account. I don’t hate it.
 
#31      
EyeoftheIllini
I’m not putting too much credence into this early of NET rankings. Arkansas is 51 and Oregon State is 49. That tells me all I need to know, and I’m a Beaver.
 
#32      
Bbuck21
I guess, as a fan, you have to decide, are you concerned about season rankings, or are you hoping for positive season end results? When the tournament starts, the pollsters have no vote. Matchups become king. Did it really matter last year if we faced UConn in the Elite 8 or Final 4 or Chmapionship game? Only if that's what's important to you. Regardless, I know the Illini were good and fun to watch. As flawed as the "Quad" system is, it is an improvement over total arbitrary opinions of rankings by half-assed writers. If there were no polls until the beginning of the the spring semester (or end of January to cover all scenarios), they would look very different out of the shoot. Sorry for the rant. I don't know why I bother reading these threads.
 
#33      
thefalcon5
ugottabjoshinme said:
Illinois has quite the schedule the rest of the way.

As it stands now:
15 Q1 games remaining
6 Q2 games remaining
1 Q3 game remaining
2 Q4 games remaining
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You’ve seen similar distributions with teams like MSU in the past be extremely favorable come March. I personally think the team is doing a fantastic job of scheduling. Much better to go 20-10 (ish) with a ton of Q1 losses than 25-5 with some stinkers.
 
#34      
aaeismacgychel
Second place is 1st loser said:
To have a top 10 NET ranking when our strength of schedule, to date, isn't very strong ....it sure seems that how we win is potentially better than who we win against? We absolutely crushed the majority of our "weaker" opponents and it sure seems to have mattered.

It also seems like a coach, who has a great grasp of the system, can really manipulate their schedule to enhance the outcome. It's really just a matter of avoiding one terrible loss and sprinkling in some solid, but not necessarily elite, wins to the resume.

MY interpretation could be way off. That said, I'm sure that it was all "normalize" as schools get into conference play and losses start piling up and the SOS for each school starts to flatten out.
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No, your interpretation is correct. I've written about this at length before, but unlike a more advanced system like Kenpom or Sagarin that damp your efficiency ratings in blowouts, NET almost certainly does no such thing opting to keep "raw" or "true" efficiency. And because of how important efficiency is in their system, this is problematic because your blowout wins serve as outliers even against poor teams. So the way to "game the system" in NET is in non-con to schedule and absolutely throttle the worst teams in the NCAA and schedule Top 50 teams the rest of the way so you wind up with no bad losses and a bunch of giant blowout wins.

In NET, based on empirical evidence, beating a bad team by 50 at home>>>>>than beating a Top 5 team on the road by 3 when it comes to rating. Bret is very aware of this and it's why he schedules the way he does and why he leaves the starters out there in blowouts longer than he needs to as it's both about the overall NET rating and the Quad 1 and 2 wins.
 
#37      
Brosky
I just like the sound of #10. It's a nice round, complimentary number.
 
#39      
OrangeBlue98
ejam21 said:
While this is true, the logic always is a headscratcher for me

Its like if you are the #10 net team, its not relevant and youre not really the 10th best.......but if a team beats you, on their resume they have a quad1A and a note that the beat the 10th best team if hte committee closely examines.

It's like which is it ha.
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It's whatever makes the team making the claim look better. :)

America Obama GIF
 
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