Its never lupus
Illinois 108, Sam Houston 86 Postgame
I actually like the fast paced offense, IF we can keep the turnover rate down (about which, I've already expressed my share of concern, in previous posts).
Reason why:
Objectively, we'll be the "better" team in most games we play. When you play faster, you increase the quantity of possessions in the game. This means that the opponent -- who we are better than (most nights) -- has to match our efficiency for that many more possessions than if we played slower.
To beat us last year, a less talented team -- such as UCLA / Wisconsin / Nebraska -- only needed to exceed our level of play for 60-65 possessions.
This year, they'll have to do it for 75-80 possessions.
Thus, if we're not shooting ourselves with mental errors / turnovers, it'll be very difficult to beat this team (especially once Mirk is back).
.....
The offense was very good today: 1.374 points per possession. Adjusted rating of 131.8. Only 7.6% turnover rate. (per Torvik)
Reason why:
Objectively, we'll be the "better" team in most games we play. When you play faster, you increase the quantity of possessions in the game. This means that the opponent -- who we are better than (most nights) -- has to match our efficiency for that many more possessions than if we played slower.
To beat us last year, a less talented team -- such as UCLA / Wisconsin / Nebraska -- only needed to exceed our level of play for 60-65 possessions.
This year, they'll have to do it for 75-80 possessions.
Thus, if we're not shooting ourselves with mental errors / turnovers, it'll be very difficult to beat this team (especially once Mirk is back).
.....
The offense was very good today: 1.374 points per possession. Adjusted rating of 131.8. Only 7.6% turnover rate. (per Torvik)
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Sam Houston State at home. They’re a fringe top 100 team worse than 80% of the Big 10. I’m sort of tired of analytics that don’t factor strength of opponent.
Our defense and rebounding at the moment make us a fringe top 25 team. Mirk doesn’t single-handedly solve all this.
Understatement to say the defensive and offensive rebounding as well as our rim protection is AWFUL despite being the tallest team in the country. The # of times we have a 7 footer and a primary defender trapping a 6’ guard against the baseline and they still snake their way to a layup is astounding.
I get that we like to not foul. But it’s crazy how many layups we’re giving up to opposition guards.
Shot chart from this game:
....
Illinois has taken only 3 mid-range shots all year (mid-range = 2 point shot outside the paint).
All 3 were in the Texas Tech game, and we went 2/3.
....
Illinois has taken only 3 mid-range shots all year (mid-range = 2 point shot outside the paint).
All 3 were in the Texas Tech game, and we went 2/3.
We are nowhere close to a finished product yet. Just try to enjoy the ride and watch the growth once we have our full lineup and get our feet under us. At Duke will likely not be great . But that’s ok. Let’s see how we look in Feb/March (hopefully April!)
I wodner if rim protection problem might be overstated bc we are top 20 in the country at 2pt fg%, with the premise being if we were giving up layups all day we'd have a worse defensive 2pt %.
Currently sitting at 38.9%.......for some reference last year we gave up 45%, in 2021 we had a top 10 defense that gave up 45%. These will likely sneak up as compition increases. Last years top team gave 45%. Against texas tech we actually did decent on 2 pt defense giving up 17/38 (44.7%), which over a season wouldve been #5 in the country last year.
Gotta stop giving up the 2nd chance attempts and TOs that lead to easy buckets
Illinois is 21st in the country in 2 point percentage allowed.
So is that a good thing or bad?
We’ve played one high major team. Let’s wait on quoting general stats till we have actual high major data?
I think we’re all watching a team that spent a summer building around a 1st team All American who looked all set to play limited minutes vs. FDU / Penn and rock it starting TTU.
Plans changed.
I saw our defensive rating vs. Sam Houston puts us in the 200s.
Needs to play more. Going to need a great game from him to beat Duke.
The rim protection debate is interesting.
Let’s look at our two most recent games: Sam Houston and Texas Tech
….
Last season, only 25.8% of Illinois’s opponents shot attempts came at the rim (inside 4.5 feet). That was 92nd percentile.
Last two games:
33.9% of Texas Tech’s shots came at the rim. 39.7% of Sam Houston’s shots came at the rim.
So, we allowed more attempts at the rim.
….
BUT….
Texas Tech only shot 54.5% on their shots at the rim.
Sam Houston only shot 51.7% on their shots at the rim.
Last year, opponents shot 59.2% on shots at the rim against Illinois.
….
So, we allowed more shots at the rim, but teams aren’t really making them.
To solve for this, I decided to calculate # of made shots at the rim / total # of field goal attempts.
Last year, Illinois’s opponents made 356 shots at the rim, over 2,300 field goal attempts. 356 / 2300 = 15.5%
Texas Tech made 12 shots at the rim over 65 field goal attempts, which is 18.5%.
Sam Houston made 15 shots at the rim over 73 field goal attempts, which is 20.5%.
….
Obviously this could all be paralysis by analysis, and we could just use 2 point percentage.
Last year, Illinois was 38th in 2 point percentage allowed at 47.7%.
Texas Tech’s 2 point percentage was 44.7%.
Sam Houston’s 2 point percentage was 42.5%.
Thru 4 games, our 2 point percentage allowed is 38.9% which is 21st in the country.
….
My final verdict would be that adding a 6”9, 250 pounder in Mirkovic, is going to enhance our rim protection to some extent, regardless of how things look right now.
pruman91
- interviewing new NL's daily....I really really am
The team definitely felt the same way, thus the leadership issue.
Defense is 100% about effort, grit and communication. It's not the most enjoyable part of basketball, but it's the necessary one and the great players/teams embrace shutting you down. There's pride in that. Usually, when coaches talk about game shape, they're addressing that side of the floor. Getting in a good defensive stance, moving your feet, focus, communication, shot contest, finally find a man, box out and be the guy who is hungriest to get the ball, then get our in transition and play the fun part of the game.
Think about the times we say "they're gassed". It's always in the defensive end and it comes with getting back, finding a man, doing everything about and ........rebounding.
That's what's driving Brad nuts. He has an effort problem on one side of the ball. In HS, these kids are used to putting up 40, being THE offense and being so much better than everyone else that they dominate on both ends. This is a whole different ordeal.
The teams is starting to find their rotation. Some guys will be pissed. That's where culture kicks in.
We'll be fine.
Likewise, folks are getting tired of analysis that doesn't factor in missing 2 starters.
Someone mentioned we're 21st in the country in 2 pt percentage allowed. Since you don't like analytics that don't factor strength of opponent, lets use only the Tech game: they were 17-38 (44.7%) from 2 point range.
Coaching will hopefully correct some of the rebounding, but it might sort of be what it is for the moment with Lincoln replacing David and Ethan replacing Jake in the starting lineup.
Editing to add hopefully some of the defensive stuff can be corrected too, and I think it can, if a lot of it is just lack of communication from newcomers/freshmen.
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I agree wih this post 100%. Regardless of Mirks physical fitness, he is never going to be fast, helping at rim he is a plus addition. Someone please explain to me why we sent 4 to rim to Rebound last year. I don't see it this year. Is it because we are expecting less players to rebound and run for fast breaks? Didn't we send 4 to rim all of last year? We out rebounded almost every opponent, Last Season. Same players. Teams will miss a bunch of shots because of our Height. We cannot give them 3 shots every possession. We have several players that are flat out horrible on Defense.
against Tech and even times last night, it seemed we were gassed getting back on defense in transition - which makes sense down 2 guys.
Also monitoring the fts - we’re 92nd in fouls, which isn’t catastrophic, but it’s a lot more than last year through (just) 4 games.
Love the coach, and maybe the answer is just rebound, don’t foul, and don’t turn over the ball and you don’t say a lick about pace. But admittedly, as much as Brad loves to adjust year to year, sometimes I wish we just stuck to an identity and made some minor tweaks
Also monitoring the fts - we’re 92nd in fouls, which isn’t catastrophic, but it’s a lot more than last year through (just) 4 games.
Love the coach, and maybe the answer is just rebound, don’t foul, and don’t turn over the ball and you don’t say a lick about pace. But admittedly, as much as Brad loves to adjust year to year, sometimes I wish we just stuck to an identity and made some minor tweaks
Torvik DOES factor in strength of opponent.
For the Sam Houston game:
our Adjusted Offense was 131.8 — which is REALLY good, and would rank 2nd in the country last year.
our Adjusted Defense was 113.8 — which is not good, and would rank between 275-280 last year.
I feel like the people who don’t like analytics, don’t even understand it. And honestly, we’ve played 1 really good opponent, and 3 cupcakes. All other teams have played cupcakes too — many haven’t even played a single high major game.
Just to show I understand Adjusted Off/Def Efficiency, I'll say it should just be called Opponent Adjusted Off/Def Efficiency instead.
Though that leaves out two other adjustments: Location & Recency (because those are factored in as well).
But, maybe Opponent Location and Recency Adjusted Off/Def Efficiency is too wordy.
In any case, our Opponent Location and Recency Adjusted Off/Def Efficiency is moving in the wrong direction:
FDU: 73.0
Penn: 86.7
Tech: 101.8
SH: 113.8
Hopefully we can shore up these communication issues rather quickly.
Though that leaves out two other adjustments: Location & Recency (because those are factored in as well).
But, maybe Opponent Location and Recency Adjusted Off/Def Efficiency is too wordy.
In any case, our Opponent Location and Recency Adjusted Off/Def Efficiency is moving in the wrong direction:
FDU: 73.0
Penn: 86.7
Tech: 101.8
SH: 113.8
Hopefully we can shore up these communication issues rather quickly.
I just hope we’re 100% healthy at some point. Preferibly early April
Mirk is missed most on the boards. Cannot sub a 6’6” frosh for 6’9” 250# all American and not expect a decrease in defense or rebounding. Would have been less of a problem last year with Ben to take up the slack but that position was not filled.