Illinois #11 in 1/19 AP Poll

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#52      
bavanga3
NarrowJ said:
Phil Hartman Yes GIF


I think you're both looking at it wrong then... just seemed like an arbitrary cutoff to purposely leave out one of our best wins

The main thing I guess is voters can do whatever they want and is why I prefer to lean on more unbiased measurements like NET and other statistical-based sources
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Lmao I agree thats not the way to look at it. He set the boundaries like that to make his point and I decided to play along.
 
#53      
RollChief
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Exactly. Consider last year when we shot up to #13 after throttling #9 Oregon on the road. Right around that same time, Wisconsin was ranked #24. So, at that snapshot in time, Illinois was very easy to rank that far ahead of Wisconsin given what both teams had done so far.

However, starting with the USC loss (when we were #13), we would go 3-5 in our next 8 games, losing to FOUR unranked teams, including two at home ... and we literally remained ranked the entire time until after the very last loss, lol. The pollsters were slowly deciding whether or not the incredibly impressive Oregon win was somewhat of a fluke or if it was the "real Illinois," and we were just in a mini slump.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin would win 8 of its next 10 games, including a double-digit victory at #7 Purdue and capping this streak off with a demolishing of our Illini in Madison. And it took the Badgers several games to pass us in the rankings, pretty much because they didn't have a weeks-old version of an Oregon win.

As you said, Iowa State is still a very good team, and the comparison to the 2025 Illini is only partial. However, I think they're getting a BIT too much longevity out of the Purdue win. Was it their version of our Oregon win, where everything clicked? Could the #2 ranking have been a bit too high, and they're settling into the #10-15 ranking that is more true to the team's prospects? My (our) point is that at a CERTAIN point, Iowa State's results since the Purdue game have to be an equal part of the picture as their win at Purdue ... just as our squad's continued up-and-down nature last year eventually overrode the Oregon win in the perceptions of the voters. I would argue Iowa State is at least somewhere on that trajectory right now, and putting an Illini team on a 6-game winning streak over them in this week's poll would have been totally reasonable.
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As always, very well said.
 
#54      
RollChief
NarrowJ said:
Phil Hartman Yes GIF


I think you're both looking at it wrong then... just seemed like an arbitrary cutoff to purposely leave out one of our best wins

The main thing I guess is voters can do whatever they want and is why I prefer to lean on more unbiased measurements like NET and other statistical-based sources
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The 2 months is my fault not @bavanga3 's and arbitrary haha I did it so I could say #2 and #7 without addressing the loss to a #17. Probably wasn't honest reporting on my part
 
#55      
kmunt09
I’m okay with having to earn our ranking the hard way. Scratching and clawing our way there brings more satisfaction once you arrive.

Contrast this with how the Football Team immediately jumped to #9 based on pre-season rankings and the Duke win.

I personally think one path feels more rewarding than the other.
 
#56      
bavanga3
All good. I'm more curious how Ty's knee is healing up vs the AP poll. It would be interesting if hes able to come back and maintain his redshirt status how he would fit in with the way this team is playing.
 
#58      
jamarvelous31
So you created an arbitrary date to support a silly argument. The team is obviously not as good because the win was 2 months and ~8 days ago.

In the last 31 days IL is 7-0 and ISU is 5-2, including losing to a bad Cincy team. So based on my arbitrary date, you're wrong.
 
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#60      
IlliniFan42
IlliniFanTX said:
huh? They're 18-1 with the one loss to the #1 team. If you are saying compared to NET or Kenpom, sure I guess. But historically if you win 18 games and lose 1 game to the undefeated #1 team, you have a strong case to be #2...
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Also they weren't full-strength in that loss to Arizona, I'm fully okay with them being #2 in the poll. I think at this point the issue for them isn't lack of talent, it's staying focused facing a horrible conference.
 
#62      
RollChief

I think the funniest single vote for this week goes out to Randy Heitz of 107.7 The Franchise (OK) for giving NC State their single #25 rank vote. The Monday after getting upset at home by Georgia Tech on Saturday, which very well may be a Q4 loss at the end of the season.

Just a full "Alright, I'm on number 25, my wife is telling me to get the kids in the car for church, I need to toss someone in there, NC State is a safe bet, right? Didn't they hire Will Wade?"
 
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#63      
EmpoweredIllini
IlliniFan42 said:
I'm not opposed to our spot in the Poll. We're the highest ranked 3-loss team and results have to mean something. My guess is they're waiting for Nebraska to lose and you'll see them fall behind us despite beating us.
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right but not all wins & losses are created equal

a 3 loss team, depending on who they lost to, may very well be a better team than a team that's played a worse schedule or has worse losses (and/or not as good of wins) that has 2 losses

Gonzaga has 1 loss but look at the conference they play in. Illinois has more Q1 wins. Gonzaga has played 11 Q3/Q4 teams, Illinois has only gotten the benefit of playing 8 such teams... just one example
 
#64      
ejam21
EmpoweredIllini said:
right but not all wins & losses are created equal

a 3 loss team, depending on who they lost to, may very well be a better team than a team that's played a worse schedule or has worse losses (and/or not as good of wins) that has 2 losses

Gonzaga has 1 loss but look at the conference they play in. Illinois has more Q1 wins. Gonzaga has played 11 Q3/Q4 teams, Illinois has only gotten the benefit of playing 8 such teams... just one example
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Good point.

For instance if instead of playing UConn and bama we played 2 cupcakes or 1 of those games and 1 cupcake , we’d be sitting at 17-1 or 16-2 with 4 quad 1 wins. Bet we’d be ranked in the top 10, maybe 5. But we wouldn’t really be a lick better than we are now
 
#65      
Piotyr
RollChief said:

I think the funniest single vote for this week goes out to Randy Heitz of 107.7 The Franchise (OK) for giving NC State their single #25 rank vote. The Monday after getting upset at home by Georgia Tech on Saturday, which very well may be a Q4 loss at the end of the season.

Just a full "Alright, I'm on number 25, my wife is telling me to get the kids in the car for church, I need to toss someone in there, NC State is a safe bet, right? Didn't they hire Will Wade?"
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The general feeling about the 25 spot from the AP voters is they use it to give a shout out to a team that they think deserves more attention.

Why that team had to be NC State for that voter, well, I don't follow that.
 
#66      
RollChief
Piotyr said:
The general feeling about the 25 spot from the AP voters is they use it to give a shout out to a team that they think deserves more attention.

Why that team had to be NC State for that voter, well, I don't follow that.
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Yeah I get that with George Mason, Saint Louis, Miami (OH) and Utah St... buts its fun going out and finding the "I can't begin to rationalize that one" votes....

It feels like one of either "let me safely make a statement" or "I need to get this list rounded out"...
 
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#67      
kmunt09
Wisconsin 64 votes. The current king of the “mid” tier of the B1G.

Not sure what to think of them quite yet.
 
#68      
Hessel Blvd
Looking forward to a 3rd week in a row where someone needs to remind the room we are the highest ranked team in the nation with 3 losses.
 
#69      
Sedino
Do people not know what the words "in the last two months" mean?
 
#70      
EmeraldCityIllini
kmunt09 said:
Wisconsin 64 votes. The current king of the “mid” tier of the B1G.

Not sure what to think of them quite yet.
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I think highly of them actually. Boyd and Blackwell is really good, and Winter is a solid big man.

Too small to have a high ceiling defensively, and that’s really the only three guys. But those two guards are good enough to beat literally anybody on any given night. Glad we get them only at home.

Also. Check out their schedule… VERY manageable down the stretch
 
#71      
IlliniFan42
EmpoweredIllini said:
right but not all wins & losses are created equal

a 3 loss team, depending on who they lost to, may very well be a better team than a team that's played a worse schedule or has worse losses (and/or not as good of wins) that has 2 losses

Gonzaga has 1 loss but look at the conference they play in. Illinois has more Q1 wins. Gonzaga has played 11 Q3/Q4 teams, Illinois has only gotten the benefit of playing 8 such teams... just one example
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While it's a good point, the view is that while we've had more Q1 opportunities than Gonzaga, we mostly squandered them. We went 4-3 while Gonzaga went 3-1, which translates to we had 3 more chances than them and went 1-2. The voters are essentially betting that if Gonzaga had our chances, they'd go at least 2-1. And it's hard to argue when we lost to Bama, Gonzaga beat Bama, and Gonzaga's only loss is Michigan.
 
#72      
Fly Illini Fly!
EmeraldCityIllini said:
I think highly of them actually. Boyd and Blackwell is really good, and Winter is a solid big man.

Too small to have a high ceiling defensively, and that’s really the only three guys. But those two guards are good enough to beat literally anybody on any given night. Glad we get them only at home.

Also. Check out their schedule… VERY manageable down the stretch
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Really got call.

If they get passed Feb 13 against MSU with only 4 conf losses, they could firmly be in the BIG title hunt. The game @Purdue could have championship implications.
 
#74      
NarrowJ
IlliniFan42 said:
While it's a good point, the view is that while we've had more Q1 opportunities than Gonzaga, we mostly squandered them. We went 4-3 while Gonzaga went 3-1, which translates to we had 3 more chances than them and went 1-2. The voters are essentially betting that if Gonzaga had our chances, they'd go at least 2-1. And it's hard to argue when we lost to Bama, Gonzaga beat Bama, and Gonzaga's only loss is Michigan.
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I don’t think a winning record is “mostly squandering them”, that’s actually “mostly converting on them”

I do agree with the overall point that Gonzaga has a higher winning percentage in Q1 and that could be important.

It’ll be interesting to see how things change if Gonzaga drops a conf game or two. They’ve lost one game to Michigan, but it was a 40 point loss which also matters.
 
#75      
ejam21
IlliniFan42 said:
While it's a good point, the view is that while we've had more Q1 opportunities than Gonzaga, we mostly squandered them. We went 4-3 while Gonzaga went 3-1, which translates to we had 3 more chances than them and went 1-2. The voters are essentially betting that if Gonzaga had our chances, they'd go at least 2-1. And it's hard to argue when we lost to Bama, Gonzaga beat Bama, and Gonzaga's only loss is Michigan.
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Yeah but not all chances are equal either

We have losses to 6 and 8 in there. Do we think Gonzaga is beating UConn and Nebraska?

And that loss is quite brutal. Lost by about the same margin as Rutgers. Losing by 40 is insane. Remember what this board was like after Duke last year even with a injury riddled and sick team?

Also watched Gonzaga barely escape Seattle U

We also have two quad 1 road wins while they don’t even have any on schedules yet and are doing things like squeaking out 6 point wins against teams like San Diego with a 200+ net
 
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