Illinois #12 in 2/19 AP Poll

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#26      

Noblesville Illini

Nappanee, IN
Has to be one of the quickest top 6 to out of the rankings in recent memory.
tom petty GIF

Free Fallin’
 
#31      
This may be a silly question, but this is one heck of a free fall, which I do believe has a smattering of a Michigan and a Minnesota L. How far away are they from closing in on the bubble?
Not at all, Illinois and Wisconsin are basically equal at this point. They have the two best wins but they have 3 not great losses compared to Illinois with 1 (but Illinois has the worst loss). Their record is worse but their SOS is better. Illinois has better efficiency metrics. It's very close. Higher seed could easily go to who wins @ Wisconsin on 3/2.
 
#33      

altgeld88

Arlington, Virginia
I still like their resume better than ours to be totally honest.

A bit inflammatory I guess, but Marquette, N-Virginia and @MSU are three wins better than our best.

Kinda goes back to my point from the other day, KenPom, seeding, AP rankings, these are different kinds of questions. Never in a million years would I fill out an AP ballot with Wisconsin above us, if I were a bookmaker in Vegas I probably wouldn't make Wisconsin a favorite on a neutral floor, but the resume is not "what have you done for me lately".
I ask this with genuine interest and am not playing devil's advocate: should those Marquette and N-UVa wins be discounted substantially because of Wisc's current slide or should we view those wins as the product of the same team (physically and psychologically) on the floor today?

Last season at this time of February our UCLA and Texas wins back in December gave me little comfort about our seeding and March prospects given the way we we'd just played at Penn State and Indiana. After the way we played at Ohio State a week later I felt those two wins might just as well have occurred when Ayo was in uniform two seasons earlier.

So, acknowledging that the resume indeed is not a "what have you done for me lately" document... shouldn't it be? Am curious what everyone thinks of that.
 
#34      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
I ask this with genuine interest and am not playing devil's advocate: should those Marquette and N-UVa wins be discounted substantially because of Wisc's current slide or should we view those wins as the product of the same team (physically and psychologically) on the floor today?

Last season at this time of February our UCLA and Texas wins back in December gave me little comfort about our seeding and March prospects given the way we we'd just played at Penn State and Indiana. After the way we played at Ohio State a week later I felt those two wins might just as well have occurred when Ayo was in uniform two seasons earlier.

So, acknowledging that the resume indeed is not a "what have you done for me lately" document... shouldn't it be? Am curious what everyone thinks of that.
Yeah, reasonable people can disagree on this stuff.

If I were on the NCAA tournament committee I would be hold very firmly to "who have you beaten" taking precedence over anything else, timing, record, bad losses, even home/road/neutral, within reason.

The NCAA tournament is where good teams play, if you want in, show me you've beaten good teams.

And while there is still more complexity to that, I'm happy that the actual process is closer to my preferred view of it today than it ever has been.

(A subtle question-within-a-question: should making the bracket and seeding within the bracket be handled differently? I say no and I think the committee more or less says no but theoretically there could be a distinction there)
 
#35      
I still like their resume better than ours to be totally honest.

A bit inflammatory I guess, but Marquette, N-Virginia and @MSU are three wins better than our best.

Kinda goes back to my point from the other day, KenPom, seeding, AP rankings, these are different kinds of questions. Never in a million years would I fill out an AP ballot with Wisconsin above us, if I were a bookmaker in Vegas I probably wouldn't make Wisconsin a favorite on a neutral floor, but the resume is not "what have you done for me lately".
Its not just about having better wins. They have way worse losses than us.
 
#36      
Not at all, Illinois and Wisconsin are basically equal at this point. They have the two best wins but they have 3 not great losses compared to Illinois with 1 (but Illinois has the worst loss). Their record is worse but their SOS is better. Illinois has better efficiency metrics. It's very close. Higher seed could easily go to who wins @ Wisconsin on 3/2.
We don't have a loss worse than Michigan, Rutgers and Penn St.
 
#38      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
@ Michigan and home against Maryland are fairly comparable.

@ Rutgers and @ Penn State are "less bad" losses on a team sheet. Those are high-end Quad 2 games.
This is where I start to get cranky about the quad system.

Penn State and especially Michigan are garbage teams, Maryland is something short of that.

The three worst losses in the Big Ten are the three teams that let Michigan get them, I don't care where the game was played.
 
#39      
@ Michigan and home against Maryland are fairly comparable.
No. Michigan is the worst team in the conference this year.

@ Rutgers and @ Penn State are "less bad" losses on a team sheet. Those are high-end Quad 2 games.
I get it but we don't have a loss worse than any of those 3 teams based off of Net rankings which is what you said.
 
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#45      
7 new teams in the Top 25........hmmmm........I have no idea what that means as far as upcoming tourney.......parity , for sure.......

Interestingly , bucky's fall from grace is delicious and heart warming........It really really is...........
Hungry Watching Tv GIF by Gogglebox Australia
 
#46      
Not at all, Illinois and Wisconsin are basically equal at this point. They have the two best wins but they have 3 not great losses compared to Illinois with 1 (but Illinois has the worst loss). Their record is worse but their SOS is better. Illinois has better efficiency metrics. It's very close. Higher seed could easily go to who wins @ Wisconsin on 3/2.
Huh? The Illinois worst loss is at home against Maryland(Kenpom #52). Their other losses are road losses against Tenn(5), Purdue(3), NU(47), and MSU(15) and home loss to Marquette(14).

Wisconsin lost at Providence(57), Arizona(4), Penn State(93), Nebraska(40), Michigan(104), Rutgers(83), Iowa(57) and home to Tennessee(5), and Purdue(3).

They don't have a bad home loss but I'd argue the Michigan and Penn State losses are worse then the Maryland loss even if it was at home(also minus TSJ). Realistically that 22 point loss to Rutgers is also probably worse then any Illini loss.
 
#47      

lstewart53x3

Scottsdale, Arizona
Huh? The Illinois worst loss is at home against Maryland(Kenpom #52). Their other losses are road losses against Tenn(5), Purdue(3), NU(47), and MSU(15) and home loss to Marquette(14).

Wisconsin lost at Providence(57), Arizona(4), Penn State(93), Nebraska(40), Michigan(104), Rutgers(83), Iowa(57) and home to Tennessee(5), and Purdue(3).

They don't have a bad home loss but I'd argue the Michigan and Penn State losses are worse then the Maryland loss even if it was at home(also minus TSJ). Realistically that 22 point loss to Rutgers is also probably worse then any Illini loss.
Neither team has a Q3 or Q4 loss, so neither team has a bad loss in the eyes of the committee.
 
#49      
Home/Away makes a big difference in resumes.
Not in this case. They lost to the worst team in the conference. I don't care if it was played on Mars. And as I and another has said their 3 worst losses are worse than our worst. What was originally stated is that we have the worst loss out of the two teams is incorrect.
 
#50      
Not in this case. They lost to the worst team in the conference. I don't care if it was played on Mars. And as I and another has said their 3 worst losses are worse than our worst. What was originally stated is that we have the worst loss out of the two teams is incorrect.
They're all quad 2 losses.

Where a loss happen does make a difference, from a resume perspective.
 
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