Illinois #12 in Preseason Coaches Poll

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#51      
Fighter of the Nightman
Ander1345 said:
After Iowa 2018 I never thought we'd ever be where we are. I' not sure if we're actually 12th, but I'll take another winning season!!!!
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As someone who drove from Iowa City WITH Iowa friends to watch that travesty, I actually think I had a somewhat different reaction. I very honestly thought to myself, “Well, this is honestly rock bottom. Only up from here!”

Other than the hiccup that was Lovie’s funeral procession in 2020, that turned out to be the case! We put together an AT LEAST somewhat competitive 2019 campaign, we hired Bielema, we immediately saw such an improvement in 2021, got a breakout year in 2022 (including a desperately needed W vs. Iowa!!) and the years since have cemented the Bielema turnaround as not just another fluke success to be followed by 2-win seasons!
 
#52      
Illiniguy13
skyIdub said:
Illinois Football fans seeing Tennessee, Florida, and scUM below them in pre season rankings…


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Back in 2021 I was talking sports with some new friends in Knoxville during the pandemic. They weren't very knowledgable about football and asked if Illinois was better than Tennessee. I vividly remember saying, "Illinois will never, ever be better than Tennessee at football." HA!
 
#55      
Battle89
Ander1345 said:
Bill Cubit did what he could taking over a week before the season. You can file the 2016 fiasco under Beckman.
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Not a bad way to look at it but he is forever a symbol of our worst times to me, given the situation surrounding the issuance of the quote I was alluding to.
 
#56      
GForce
Fighter of the Nightman said:
As someone who drove from Iowa City WITH Iowa friends to watch that travesty, I actually think I had a somewhat different reaction. I very honestly thought to myself, “Well, this is honestly rock bottom. Only up from here!”

Other than the hiccup that was Lovie’s funeral procession in 2020, that turned out to be the case! We put together an AT LEAST somewhat competitive 2019 campaign, we hired Bielema, we immediately saw such an improvement in 2021, got a breakout year in 2022 (including a desperately needed W vs. Iowa!!) and the years since have cemented the Bielema turnaround as not just another fluke success to be followed by 2-win seasons!
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I like this version of events.
Also "Lovie’s funeral procession in 2020" is an apt description for the dead-man napping.
 
#57      
Illini2010-11
lstewart53x3 said:
Sure. Let’s use a longer timeframe. From 1985 to 2024, we went 200-268. So over the span of 40 years, covering 3 years of Mike White, along with the entire tenures of John Mackovic, Lou Tepper, Ron Turner, Ron Zook, Tim Beckman, Bill Cubit, and Lovie Smith, and Bret Bielema, we averaged 5-7. So yeah, I’ll take 7-5.
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While it is true that it has been 35 years since the Illini have recorded back-to-back winning regular seasons and getting to 7-5 would be good from a time-series narrative, there is no way of sugar coating how much of an underachievement 7-5 would be for this team (and likely the loss of motivation in the fan base). There is no doubt in my mind that last year's team overachieved to get to 10 wins, and a lot of the talent is still around this season. This season, the team is built to win, and the schedule is about as favorable as you can hope for. IMO, the only way 7 wins looks good would be if there were major injuries to key players early (or late) in the season.

Maybe a Loyalty poll is warranted for the fan base to determine what they would consider a good season. My gut feelings for regular season:

- 10+ wins (CFP bound): Outstanding and continuing to build on the success Coach B has put together (that would be 3 out of 4 seasons of 8+ wins)
- 9 wins (likely outside CFP): Very good (but slightly disappointed in missing out of CFP). Arrow still pointing up
- 8 wins: Acceptable but disappointing in missing out on opportunities -> Slight underachievement (Vegas has Illini pegged at 8.5 wins)
- 7 wins: Historically acceptable, but disappointing and underachieving expectations
- 6 wins: Very apathetic about bowl game given pre-season expectations
- <6 wins: Complete disappointment
 
#58      
TX Illiniwek
lstewart53x3 said:
Sure. Let’s use a longer timeframe. From 1985 to 2024, we went 200-268. So over the span of 40 years, covering 3 years of Mike White, along with the entire tenures of John Mackovic, Lou Tepper, Ron Turner, Ron Zook, Tim Beckman, Bill Cubit, and Lovie Smith, and Bret Bielema, we averaged 5-7. So yeah, I’ll take 7-5.
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My first Illini game was 1971...Northwestern. So, I'll throw in the Blackmon and Moeller years. Illini are 269-350-10 which roughly equates to a 5-7 record on a 12 game schedule. So the same basic trend for over 50 years. In that span we've had four 10 win seasons, one 9 win season and three 8 win seasons (disclaimer...12 game seasons didn't become the norm until the 2000's.) BB's tenure obviously accounts for two of those 8 noted seasons at 10 wins and 8 wins. While historically speaking and as a long suffering Illini fan, I would certainly "take" a 7-5 season. But, given the momentum and feeling that this program has right now I would consider 7-5 a significant step backward especially when it comes to recruiting. If we want to hit on more 4 stars and the 5 stars...see Sutter and Anderson...and continue the upward trajectory of Illinois football, we can't revert back to mediocre. We have to continue with 9, 10 and get to 11 win seasons, compete in major bowls, put players in the pros. We all know that Bret has this program in a better spot than its been since the Mike White era (everyone knew Illinois was just a stop-over for Mackovic)...arguably in the best spot its EVER been. And I'd bet a paycheck that if Bret and anyone on the staff is completely honest, they will tell you that a 7-5 season would be a huge disappointment, as well...especially with the schedule we have. We've been conditioned to expect the worst over the years...I can't express how excited I am to have confidence that we can produce the type of season consistently like we did last year. I literally feel like a kid waiting for Christmas in anticipation of this season! Let's friggin' go get it!!! I - L - L ..... !!!!!!
 
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#59      
lstewart53x3
Illini2010-11 said:
While it is true that it has been 35 years since the Illini have recorded back-to-back winning regular seasons and getting to 7-5 would be good from a time-series narrative, there is no way of sugar coating how much of an underachievement 7-5 would be for this team (and likely the loss of motivation in the fan base). There is no doubt in my mind that last year's team overachieved to get to 10 wins, and a lot of the talent is still around this season. This season, the team is built to win, and the schedule is about as favorable as you can hope for. IMO, the only way 7 wins looks good would be if there were major injuries to key players early (or late) in the season.

Maybe a Loyalty poll is warranted for the fan base to determine what they would consider a good season. My gut feelings for regular season:

- 10+ wins (CFP bound): Outstanding and continuing to build on the success Coach B has put together (that would be 3 out of 4 seasons of 8+ wins)
- 9 wins (likely outside CFP): Very good (but slightly disappointed in missing out of CFP). Arrow still pointing up
- 8 wins: Acceptable but disappointing in missing out on opportunities -> Slight underachievement (Vegas has Illini pegged at 8.5 wins)
- 7 wins: Historically acceptable, but disappointing and underachieving expectations
- 6 wins: Very apathetic about bowl game given pre-season expectations
- <6 wins: Complete disappointment
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For sure. 7-5 isn’t the best possible scenario for this team. The ceiling is much higher. But seasons like 7-5 / 8-4 (even 6-6) happen for this caliber of team every year.

Were ranked #30 in KFord’s preseason ratings. Here were some pre-bowl records for a few teams ranked above #30 to end last season:

#15 LSU: 8-4
#17 USC: 6-6
#18 Texas A&M: 8-4
#19 Florida: 7-5
#23 Iowa: 8-4
#26 Michigan: 7-5
#27 Kansas St: 8-4
#28 Minnesota: 7-5
#29 Oklahoma: 6-6

9 of the top 30 finished 8-4 or worse. 6 of the top 30 finished 7-5 or worse. And 2 finished at 6-6.
 
#60      
Fighter of the Nightman
Illini2010-11 said:
While it is true that it has been 35 years since the Illini have recorded back-to-back winning regular seasons and getting to 7-5 would be good from a time-series narrative, there is no way of sugar coating how much of an underachievement 7-5 would be for this team (and likely the loss of motivation in the fan base). There is no doubt in my mind that last year's team overachieved to get to 10 wins, and a lot of the talent is still around this season. This season, the team is built to win, and the schedule is about as favorable as you can hope for. IMO, the only way 7 wins looks good would be if there were major injuries to key players early (or late) in the season.

Maybe a Loyalty poll is warranted for the fan base to determine what they would consider a good season. My gut feelings for regular season:

- 10+ wins (CFP bound): Outstanding and continuing to build on the success Coach B has put together (that would be 3 out of 4 seasons of 8+ wins)
- 9 wins (likely outside CFP): Very good (but slightly disappointed in missing out of CFP). Arrow still pointing up
- 8 wins: Acceptable but disappointing in missing out on opportunities -> Slight underachievement (Vegas has Illini pegged at 8.5 wins)
- 7 wins: Historically acceptable, but disappointing and underachieving expectations
- 6 wins: Very apathetic about bowl game given pre-season expectations
- <6 wins: Complete disappointment
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Exactly ... I don't understand why this is so controversial, and I don't think anyone has the right to act like someone is being (A) unrealistic or (B) ignorant of our history if he/she is a bit disappointed with 5 losses! That likely means we lose to Duke, Indiana, OSU, Washington and one of USC/Wisconsin ... so we lose every single opportunity at a statement win and also drop one game we should have won. How awful we have been historically is useful for giving context to how exciting this turnaround has been and what an amazing job Bret and his staff have done. It is NOT some ever-present prevention against ever wanting us to live up to our expectations within a given season.

The fact is, we are preseason top 15 for a reason. We proved ourselves last year, and now we have the chance to take a massive step forward. Wanting us to at least keep the momentum going and not take a clear step back isn't some unrealistic dream, lol. Let's play this same game with 5 wins! Would anyone be disappointed with 5 regular season wins next year? After all, since 2000 we have only won more than 5 regular season games in 8 of the previous 25 years, and our average is 4.72 wins per year ... 5 wins would be over our average for this millennium!! The reason no one would think that this is a "success" is because we have won at least 5 games for the past 4 seasons in a row, and our average wins per season since Bret got here is 6.75.

Expectations evolve with success and to reasonably match the context of a given season ... and they should.
 
#61      
SampsonRelpenk
Battle89 said:
Not a bad way to look at it but he is forever a symbol of our worst times to me, given the situation surrounding the issuance of the quote I was alluding to.
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I mean he did loot the athletic department of hundreds of thousands of dollars to install his son as OC, who last we heard is now hawking medical supplies. That's enough for me to hope he's not still on the Christmas card list.
 
#62      
Illini2010-11
lstewart53x3 said:
For sure. 7-5 isn’t the best possible scenario for this team. The ceiling is much higher. But seasons like 7-5 / 8-4 (even 6-6) happen for this caliber of team every year.

Were ranked #30 in KFord’s preseason ratings. Here were some pre-bowl records for a few teams ranked above #30 to end last season:

#15 LSU: 8-4
#17 USC: 6-6
#18 Texas A&M: 8-4
#19 Florida: 7-5
#23 Iowa: 8-4
#26 Michigan: 7-5
#27 Kansas St: 8-4
#28 Minnesota: 7-5
#29 Oklahoma: 6-6

9 of the top 30 finished 8-4 or worse. 6 of the top 30 finished 7-5 or worse. And 2 finished at 6-6.
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I can't speak to the preseason model that KFord uses, but I think #30 is highly undervaluing Illinois. Also, it is not a good apples-to-apples comparison to use Illinois pre-season ranking and look at the end of season power rankings from last season. It is very well possible that the Illini would need 8 wins to remain at #30 in their model for final rankings (especially if they ultimately value the Illini schedule as very weak, which it appears that it very well may).

The coaches around the country clearly see Illinois as a CFP potential team, hence the pre-season ranking of #12. I really cannot think of many fans of a team that would be happy with a 7-5 regular season record after starting with extreme hype. Virtually every fan will say the season was a disappointment. Yes, historically 7 wins would be considered a good year for Illinois, but we are in near unchartered territory with a #12 ranking entering the season. The season after the Illini lost in the Rose Bowl to USC, the Illini were ranked #20 pre-season, so they were hyped but nowhere near the extent of the team this year. It seems like you are preemptively preparing for an underachieving season by rationalizing a 7 win season still being good.

Coach B has raised the expectations of the program, so it is very logical to be disappointed with a 7 win season, especially given the team is built to win this season. I guarantee that the staff and team would also be highly disappointed if that is the final result. Expectations going into 2026 season will be very different, given the team will be much younger, so 7 wins might very well be a good season. However, we are talking about 2025. 7 wins would be a huge disappointment, and 1.5 games fewer than the over/under set by betting markets.
 
#63      
JKR
TX Illiniwek said:
My first Illini game was 1971...Northwestern. So, I'll throw in the Blackmon and Moeller years. Illini are 269-350-10 which roughly equates to a 5-7 record on a 12 game schedule. So the same basic trend for over 50 years. In that span we've had four 10 win seasons, one 9 win season and three 8 win seasons (disclaimer...12 game seasons didn't become the norm until the 2000's.) BB's tenure obviously accounts for two of those 8 noted seasons at 10 wins and 8 wins. While historically speaking and as a long suffering Illini fan, I would certainly "take" a 7-5 season. But, given the momentum and feeling that this program has right now I would consider 7-5 a significant step backward especially when it comes to recruiting. If we want to hit on more 4 stars and the 5 stars...see Sutter and Anderson...and continue the upward trajectory of Illinois football, we can't revert back to mediocre. We have to continue with 9, 10 and get to 11 win seasons, compete in major bowls, put players in the pros. We all know that Bret has this program in a better spot than its been since the Mike White era (everyone knew Illinois was just a stop-over for Mackovic)...arguably in the best spot its EVER been. And I'd bet a paycheck that if Bret and anyone on the staff is completely honest, they will tell you that a 7-5 season would be a huge disappointment, as well...especially with the schedule we have. We've been conditioned to expect the worst over the years...I can't express how excited I am to have confidence that we can produce the type of season consistently like we did last year. I literally feel like a kid waiting for Christmas in anticipation of this season! Let's friggin' go get it!!! I - L - L ..... !!!!!!
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Be thankful that you missed the Valek years. Made Blackman look like Vince Lombardi.
 
#64      
Old.Edgy
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Okay, lol. At some point how bad Beckman and Lovie were should stop dominating our perspective 24/7, though. 🤷🏼‍♂️
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True .... 'should be'... but at some point you have to realize that Valek and Moeller along with Lovie, Beckman, Zook, Turner, Tepper and all the 'interims' are a much broader and bigger history that really needs to stop dominating the perspective of some 'older' fans... Although I am hopeful ! ! !
 
#65      
FloridaMan
Illini2010-11 said:
I can't speak to the preseason model that KFord uses, but I think #30 is highly undervaluing Illinois. Also, it is not a good apples-to-apples comparison to use Illinois pre-season ranking and look at the end of season power rankings from last season. It is very well possible that the Illini would need 8 wins to remain at #30 in their model for final rankings (especially if they ultimately value the Illini schedule as very weak, which it appears that it very well may).

The coaches around the country clearly see Illinois as a CFP potential team, hence the pre-season ranking of #12. I really cannot think of many fans of a team that would be happy with a 7-5 regular season record after starting with extreme hype. Virtually every fan will say the season was a disappointment. Yes, historically 7 wins would be considered a good year for Illinois, but we are in near unchartered territory with a #12 ranking entering the season. The season after the Illini lost in the Rose Bowl to USC, the Illini were ranked #20 pre-season, so they were hyped but nowhere near the extent of the team this year. It seems like you are preemptively preparing for an underachieving season by rationalizing a 7 win season still being good.

Coach B has raised the expectations of the program, so it is very logical to be disappointed with a 7 win season, especially given the team is built to win this season. I guarantee that the staff and team would also be highly disappointed if that is the final result. Expectations going into 2026 season will be very different, given the team will be much younger, so 7 wins might very well be a good season. However, we are talking about 2025. 7 wins would be a huge disappointment, and 1.5 games fewer than the over/under set by betting markets.
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Notre Dame certainly comes to mind (there are others, although none as fun to clown on). Many years there were more than 5 losses even give the extreme hype they are given annually. And I'm not saying they are necessarily highly overrated this season, but they regularly are. I'm hopeful we will not fall into this trap and have confidence our coaches will not allow our guys to let it go to their heads.
 
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#68      
pvaughn8
lstewart53x3 said:
For sure. 7-5 isn’t the best possible scenario for this team. The ceiling is much higher. But seasons like 7-5 / 8-4 (even 6-6) happen for this caliber of team every year.

Were ranked #30 in KFord’s preseason ratings. Here were some pre-bowl records for a few teams ranked above #30 to end last season:

#15 LSU: 8-4
#17 USC: 6-6
#18 Texas A&M: 8-4
#19 Florida: 7-5
#23 Iowa: 8-4
#26 Michigan: 7-5
#27 Kansas St: 8-4
#28 Minnesota: 7-5
#29 Oklahoma: 6-6

9 of the top 30 finished 8-4 or worse. 6 of the top 30 finished 7-5 or worse. And 2 finished at 6-6.
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Most of these teams are self-perpetuating and can afford to have an off year every now and then. We don't have that luxury. The door is cracking open for us and we need to bust in. I won't be calling for Bielema's head if we lose 5 games but it could be a major hit to our near and long term ceiling.
 
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#69      
BretMyBeachHouse
Illini2010-11 said:
I can't speak to the preseason model that KFord uses, but I think #30 is highly undervaluing Illinois. Also, it is not a good apples-to-apples comparison to use Illinois pre-season ranking and look at the end of season power rankings from last season. It is very well possible that the Illini would need 8 wins to remain at #30 in their model for final rankings (especially if they ultimately value the Illini schedule as very weak, which it appears that it very well may).

The coaches around the country clearly see Illinois as a CFP potential team, hence the pre-season ranking of #12. I really cannot think of many fans of a team that would be happy with a 7-5 regular season record after starting with extreme hype. Virtually every fan will say the season was a disappointment. Yes, historically 7 wins would be considered a good year for Illinois, but we are in near unchartered territory with a #12 ranking entering the season. The season after the Illini lost in the Rose Bowl to USC, the Illini were ranked #20 pre-season, so they were hyped but nowhere near the extent of the team this year. It seems like you are preemptively preparing for an underachieving season by rationalizing a 7 win season still being good.

Coach B has raised the expectations of the program, so it is very logical to be disappointed with a 7 win season, especially given the team is built to win this season. I guarantee that the staff and team would also be highly disappointed if that is the final result. Expectations going into 2026 season will be very different, given the team will be much younger, so 7 wins might very well be a good season. However, we are talking about 2025. 7 wins would be a huge disappointment, and 1.5 games fewer than the over/under set by betting markets.
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Unless the season has some sort of embarrassing 60-0 loss I'd be happy with 7 wins. Of course disappointment as well, but it keeps the program moving forward.

I think many people don't realize how little distinction there is between 5 and 9 win teams.

Hopefully we truly are as good as our reviews. But in college football it's really hard to evaluate teams.
 
#70      
lstewart53x3
pvaughn8 said:
Most of these teams are self-perpetuating and can afford to have an off year every now and then. We don't have that luxury. The door is cracking open for us and we need to bust in. I won't be calling for Bielema's head if we lose 5 games but it could be a major hit to our near and long term ceiling.
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This is absurd.

In Kirk Ferentz’s 4th, 5th, and 6th seasons, he went 11-2, 10-3, 10-2 (after going a combined 12-24 his first 3 years).

In the following 3 seasons he went 7-5, 6-7, 6-6. Then he built it back up the next 2 years to 9-4 and 11-2.

A 7-5 season has no impact on the long term ceiling of this program under Josh Whitman and Bret Bielema.

I’m not scared of a 7-5 season because as long as those two are leading this program, we’re gonna compete.
 
#72      
Bbuck21
GForce said:
I like this version of events.
Also "Lovie’s funeral procession in 2020" is an apt description for the dead-man napping.
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Somehow I missed all that. Not sure what your talking about?
 
#73      
Grandpa
One huge difference between the bad-ol' days and now. We can legally pay players now. Before only certain teams were allowed that luxury.
 
#74      
lstewart53x3
Robert explained my thoughts way better than I ever could (free article, worth the read):

The practices are crisp. The players know what they're doing. There's just as much player instruction ("don't put your hands outside, keep them inside") as there is coaching instruction. This is the fifth year of this defense (third year with this coordinator) and the fourth year of this offense with this coordinator. If training camp in 2017 was mostly confusion, training camp in 2025 is mostly clarity.

Look, wins aren't guaranteed. The football is still oblong, it bounces funny, and 99-yard fumble returns turn 34-21 wins into 28-27 losses with one single play. We've never experienced this before, but every year, there are those teams that get the breaks and go 11-1 or get the bad breaks and go 8-4. It's been happening up at the top of the college football universe for decades. We've just never visited there. Here.

Which is why these first three practices have felt like such an arrival to me. Not only am I finally feeling the Camp Rantoul vibes, I'm finally seeing what a top-25 practice should have looked like all along. I've watched so many teams go through practices where 5-7 was the ceiling that I wasn't sure if I'd know how to handle a practice where 5-7 was the floor.

Yes, I'll pause to address it. For some of you, that scares you. "Oh God, what if injuries decimate us and we tumble to 5-7? What if this is Kansas 2024 part II?"

For me? Honestly? I'm enjoying the hell out of that being the floor. I spent a week-plus at Camp Rantoul in 2013 when the absolute ceiling was 5 wins. I spent a week-plus at Camp Urbana in 2017 when the ceiling was 4 wins. I've written hundreds of thousands of words about teams that had zero chance to win even six games.

So "what if absolutely everything goes wrong and we go 5-7", at least in that sense, doesn't scare me. Because "what if we never?" is gone. "What if this never happens and I'm just covering 4-8 teams the rest of my life?" is completely put to bed now. I can focus on other things.
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www.illiniboard.com

Camp Champaign

(free post) I had a routine for Camp Rantoul. I would always stay at the Super 8 out by the interstate in Rantoul. I would always get a room with two beds. I would always use one bed for sleeping and one bed for clothing. And going to (and returning
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