Illinois #13 in 1/12 AP Poll

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#26      
Fighter of the Nightman
FloridaMan said:
Agree. Probably a direct result of the early results vs Alabama and UCONN. It takes a while to climb back to the top after a couple early losses. If we are able to continue to play as well/better than the last three weeks going forward it should resolve itself pretty soon.
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I actually think we are just falling victim to the "ladder nature" of the AP Poll (i.e., bump you up for a win and bump you down for a loss from week to week) and taking what now looks to be an exceptionally harsh penalty for losing on a buzzer beater to Nebraska. We dropped SEVEN spots for that loss, from #13 to #20. Since then, we have gone on a 5-game winning streak, winning two road games (one of which was vs. a top 20 team) and looking dominant in the non-road games. As a reminder we went from #13 to #20 after Nebraska, remained at #20 after Braggin' Rights, moved from #20 to #16 after the Southern and PSU wins and have now moved from #16 to #13 after the Rutgers and Iowa wins.

If the pollsters dropped us from #13 to #17 after losing to Nebraska, which I would have considered much more reasonable, this would be where we'd be ranked following the exact same bumps we actually have gotten each week:

Week 6: Illini are #13
- Lose at home to #23 Nebraska on a buzzer beater
---> Illini drop 4 spots to #17

Week 8: Illini are #17
- Demolish Missouri in a neutral site rivalry game
---> Illini remain at #17 (still wild this didn't move us up at all, lol...)

Week 9: Illini are #17
- Illini easily take care of Southern at home
- Illini win a semi-close road game at PSU but pretty much control the game from start to finish
---> Illini move up 4 spots to #13

Week 10: Illini are #13
- Illini demolish a bad Rutgers team at home
- Illini score a top 20 road win at rival Iowa where they never trail
---> Illini move up 3 spots to #10

Week 11: Illini are #10

And then we are here in Week 11 feeling like our #10 ranking is fair and matches most advanced metrics. So yeah, I really do think it might be as simple as the pollsters being way too harsh on us for the Nebraska loss by at least 3 spots, and we are now about 3 spots behind where we "should be" each week.
 
#27      
altgeld88
ChiefGritty said:
We absolutely could have and should have beaten Alabama and Nebraska but I'm a liiiiiiiiiiittle skeptical we're better than UConn.
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My post was partially tongue-in-cheek. Based on KenPom's figures, I don't believe there's a large delta presently between #4 and #12. Having sat through UConn v. Illinois in the Garden I believe that game today would be very tight on a neutral floor (i.e., not MSG.).
 
#28      
Piotyr
All 3 games Illinois lost, they were getting good offensive looks and running good offense. Against Bama, they missed too many FTs, against UConn, they missed too many open looks in the open floor (even Hurley after the game mentioned if they hit open shots at a normal rate, Illinois wins that game), and against Nebraska, the defensive effort was effectively non-existent outside of about 5 minutes of a flurry at the end of each half to tie the game up twice.

Normal effort, normal shot-making Illinois is a scary good team.
 
#29      
the juiceman cometh
ChiefGritty said:
We absolutely could have and should have beaten Alabama and Nebraska but I'm a liiiiiiiiiiittle skeptical we're better than UConn.
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Torvik still has them ahead of us, but one thing to consider is that it's also a matter of who is good when. Team quality is not static (which is why on the football end of things I thought Bama should not make the CFP as their loss in the SEC Championship game was much more indicative of team quality at the relevant time than their earlier win over UGA).

From the beginning of the season through 12/9, Torvik has UConn as the 3rd best team in the country and us at #11.

From 12/10 to present, it's exactly flipped, and Torvik has us at #3 and UConn at #11.

So for the last month, we have been a better team than UConn. At the time we played them, however, they were a better team than us.
 
#30      
jamarvelous31
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I actually think we are just falling victim to the "ladder nature" of the AP Poll (i.e., bump you up for a win and bump you down for a loss from week to week) and taking what now looks to be an exceptionally harsh penalty for losing on a buzzer beater to Nebraska. We dropped SEVEN spots for that loss, from #13 to #20. Since then, we have gone on a 5-game winning streak, winning two road games (one of which was vs. a top 20 team) and looking dominant in the non-road games. As a reminder we went from #13 to #20 after Nebraska, remained at #20 after Braggin' Rights, moved from #20 to #16 after the Southern and PSU wins and have now moved from #16 to #13 after the Rutgers and Iowa wins.

If the pollsters dropped us from #13 to #17 after losing to Nebraska, which I would have considered much more reasonable, this would be where we'd be ranked following the exact same bumps we actually have gotten each week:

Week 6: Illini are #13
- Lose at home to #23 Nebraska on a buzzer beater
---> Illini drop 4 spots to #17

Week 8: Illini are #17
- Demolish Missouri in a neutral site rivalry game
---> Illini remain at #17 (still wild this didn't move us up at all, lol...)

Week 9: Illini are #17
- Illini easily take care of Southern at home
- Illini win a semi-close road game at PSU but pretty much control the game from start to finish
---> Illini move up 4 spots to #13

Week 10: Illini are #13
- Illini demolish a bad Rutgers team at home
- Illini score a top 20 road win at rival Iowa where they never trail
---> Illini move up 3 spots to #10

Week 11: Illini are #10

And then we are here in Week 11 feeling like our #10 ranking is fair and matches most advanced metrics. So yeah, I really do think it might be as simple as the pollsters being way too harsh on us for the Nebraska loss by at least 3 spots, and we are now about 3 spots behind where we "should be" each week.
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Yeah, thankfully the week to week rankings have very little impact other than determining which network you end up on.
 
#31      
the juiceman cometh
altgeld88 said:
#13? Whatever. In KenPom and Torvik we trust.

View attachment 46445
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Kinda interesting that Men's and Women's teams are on the exact opposite ends of the Efficiency Metrics vs. AP Voters divide. While as you've shown the AP voters are undervaluing the Men's team quality in relation to efficiency-based metrics, they're doing the opposite in Women's, where Torvik has us at #35, but we did manage to sneak into the AP poll at #25.

I actually think this is not necessarily a bad thing. AP Voters are going to reward teams for winning games and punish them for losing. I think there's some value in that. We get dinged because we have 3 losses, but at the same time AP voters do recognize that we are better than that record indicates (we are the top ranked team with more than 2 losses, and only behind MSU in teams with more than 1 loss). And on the Women's side, sure the efficiency metrics don't like us, but we beat Maryland and that's gotta mean something right?
 
#32      
Calvin
Good to see that we're at a point in the season where 4 and even 5 loss teams are in the rankings. We've got 3, all against tournament teams, when we weren't playing as well, especially defensively. Not sure what the ceiling is, but I think it's very high.

Two comments on this team.
1. They're playing really cool and collected. I don't know stats on runs, but it seems like we go on runs, and opponents rarely do. This team is good at responding even when an opponent surges, or they're making consecutive mistakes.
2. Wagler. Just insane how efficient he is. Was looking at some O-ratings for Keaton, sr TSJ and jr Ayo on sports-reference & Torvik (conference only).

TSJ 129 / 125
Ayo 113 /111
KW 141 / 137

Ridiculous! I look at the composition of the team and I see guys who on any given night can be difference makers, plus some role players who excel... but to have a shot at a FF or beyond you need a stud or two that's NBA level. We have (at least) one. Hope they keep the train rolling, they're playing about as well as anyone.
 
#33      
FeelYourPaign
the juiceman cometh said:
Torvik still has them ahead of us, but one thing to consider is that it's also a matter of who is good when. Team quality is not static (which is why on the football end of things I thought Bama should not make the CFP as their loss in the SEC Championship game was much more indicative of team quality at the relevant time than their earlier win over UGA).

From the beginning of the season through 12/9, Torvik has UConn as the 3rd best team in the country and us at #11.

From 12/10 to present, it's exactly flipped, and Torvik has us at #3 and UConn at #11.

So for the last month, we have been a better team than UConn. At the time we played them, however, they were a better team than us.
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Very interesting insight into uconn
Thanks
 
#34      
Emerson Bigguns
We are the highest ranked 3 loss team. MSU is the only 2 loss team ranked ahead of us. Metrics are obviously helping us, but wins and losses are always going to be what moves voters more than anything. I think the committee values metrics more than the AP or Coaches. Many of whom have a similar attitude to the "metrics-schmetrics" guys who hang around here sometimes.
 
#35      
NarrowJ
FeelYourPaign said:
Very interesting insight into uconn
Thanks
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Absolutely, that was a great post that got me thinking

At the time, we were a team that was lacking in the cohesion department due to having a constant stream of injured players to open the season

Since that point in time, we've gotten more and more practice time while UConn has been working to integrate Mullins into their rotation and may be suffering from some of the same effects as Illinois was back in late November
 
#36      
pruman91
Dan said:
apnews.com

NCAA College Basketball Rankings: AP Top 25 Basketball Poll

The official page for the AP Top 25 men's college basketball poll. Keep up to date and view the latest NCAA men's basketball ranking updates each week for the 2025-26 season.
apnews.com apnews.com
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3 esecpn teams with 5 losses still being ranked is terrible and arkansas only going down 2 spots after a 22 point road loss is equally dumb.....................JMHO..........
 
#37      
Barfolomew
Here is this week’s BUR composite ranking.
AP poll still the outlier for the Illini, but of course less so than last week’s, which is below for reference.

IMG_3933.jpeg


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The Basket Under Review guys have started doing a weekly composite ranking. Always interesting to see the outliers between humans and computers.

IMG_3917.jpeg
 
#38      
Piotyr
That composite definitely has a Sesame Street-like "which one of these is not like the others, which one of these doesn't belong" vibe to it.

If you like composites, though, take a gander at Massey's composite, where he composites every ranking he can find across the internet: https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cb

That's 47 rankings of various sources and nebulous value. The biggest thing I don't like about this is it treats every source equally valid, regardless of actual merit. Some dude in his basement could rank teams based on who his favorite mascot is, and it would count equally, where in my mind it should count just a hair above the AP poll.
 
#39      
RollChief

I was going to say something about Parth Upadhyaya of The Daily Memphian being an AP-voting ball-not-knower for still giving St. John's their single-vote.... if St. John's can pull off a win against Villanova then they can go on a tear until they get UConn in the Garden... and they're still ranked 18th in KenPom, with 5 not terrible losses, and have won 4 of the last 5...

I will say something about Bruce Pascoe still giving USC a vote, they got smoked by a combined 59 points against scUM and MSU, and took Minnesota to OT at home... ball-not-knower point applied...

I will retract my criticism last week of Mr. Scott Richey, after some reflection, I can imagine that an AP voter definitely loses some credibility if you're putting your 3-loss Illinois team in the top 10... gotta play it cool... (with that said, UNC above Illinois is a little crazy, they got beat by a not great SMU team and won at home to Wake Forest by 3, and are 33rd in KP)...
 
#40      
MikeTisdale
RollChief said:

I was going to say something about Parth Upadhyaya of The Daily Memphian being an AP-voting ball-not-knower for still giving St. John's their single-vote.... if St. John's can pull off a win against Villanova then they can go on a tear until they get UConn in the Garden... and they're still ranked 18th in KenPom, with 5 not terrible losses, and have won 4 of the last 5...

I will say something about Bruce Pascoe still giving USC a vote, they got smoked by a combined 59 points against scUM and MSU, and took Minnesota to OT at home... ball-not-knower point applied...

I will retract my criticism last week of Mr. Scott Richey, after some reflection, I can imagine that an AP voter definitely loses some credibility if you're putting your 3-loss Illinois team in the top 10... gotta play it cool... (with that said, UNC above Illinois is a little crazy, they got beat by a not great SMU team and won at home to Wake Forest by 3, and are 33rd in KP)...
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I can't believe out of all these AP vote-having jokers, none of them just buck the system and just mirror KenPom or Torvik in their voting.

Like... these voters aren't watching even a quarter of these games. It's not like anyone could really blame Randy Heitz or his esteemed 107.7 The Franchise radio station for just voting with the underlying metrics rather than just trying guess what these other losers are gonna pick.

I'd consider it an honor to be at the bottom of this list (although the guy at the bottom, David Jablonski, seems like a real sicko based on how he's voting)
 
#41      
RollChief
MikeTisdale said:
I can't believe out of all these AP vote-having jokers, none of them just buck the system and just mirror KenPom or Torvik in their voting.
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Yeah I agree that it's surprising that none of them do it... with that said, if many tailed the NET, KP or Torvik, it would kind of take the fun out of it. I at least want some explanations! Why is Vandy so low? Their SOS is comparable or better than Iowa State, Gonzaga, Houston, Nebraska... What's dragging them below Nebraska for a lot of voters?

Honestly I think cases can be made for nearly every other team except for UNC... I suppose I can talk myself into being ranked but not sure how long wins to Kansas, Kentucky and Ohio State keep you in the top 15. We'll see what they can do against mild ACC California teams this week.
 
#42      
RollChief
RollChief said:
Yeah I agree that it's surprising that none of them do it... with that said, if many tailed the NET, KP or Torvik, it would kind of take the fun out of it. But I at least want some explanations! Why is Vandy so low? Their SOS is comparable or better than Iowa State, Gonzaga, Houston, Nebraska... What's dragging them below Nebraska for a lot of voters?

Honestly I think cases can be made for nearly every other team except for UNC... I suppose I can talk myself into being ranked but not sure how long wins to Kansas, Kentucky and Ohio State keep you in the top 15. We'll see what they can do against mild ACC California teams this week.
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Disregard/delete, accidentally responded to myself
 
#44      
Mobi
Calvin said:
Good to see that we're at a point in the season where 4 and even 5 loss teams are in the rankings. We've got 3, all against tournament teams, when we weren't playing as well, especially defensively. Not sure what the ceiling is, but I think it's very high.

Two comments on this team.
1. They're playing really cool and collected. I don't know stats on runs, but it seems like we go on runs, and opponents rarely do. This team is good at responding even when an opponent surges, or they're making consecutive mistakes.
2. Wagler. Just insane how efficient he is. Was looking at some O-ratings for Keaton, sr TSJ and jr Ayo on sports-reference & Torvik (conference only).

TSJ 129 / 125
Ayo 113 /111
KW 141 / 137

Ridiculous! I look at the composition of the team and I see guys who on any given night can be difference makers, plus some role players who excel... but to have a shot at a FF or beyond you need a stud or two that's NBA level. We have (at least) one. Hope they keep the train rolling, they're playing about as well as anyone.
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Keaton is probably more efficient due to his high 3pt% at 41%. In terms of taking the critical shots, he is still not at TSJ, Ayo level but perhaps getting there. I am most confident with Keaton on this team in terms of taking the last shot.
 
#45      
Calvin
Mobi said:
Keaton is probably more efficient due to his high 3pt% at 41%. In terms of taking the critical shots, he is still not at TSJ, Ayo level but perhaps getting there. I am most confident with Keaton on this team in terms of taking the last shot.
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Not sure who the last shot guy is on the team. Keaton is for sure a guy you could ask to do that, but my vague sense is that Kylan has had to take more tough shots late in the shot clock than anyone. AS is aggressive but not the finisher TSJ was, at least not yet. We also have a lot of guys with length who could take an outside shot. Jake has been very impressive when he's open. 42% on the season.
 
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