Illinois #13 in 1/6 AP Poll

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#31      
Old Farm Illini
UConn shouldn’t have gone up in the rankings that much if at all. Houston is a nightmare for trying to objectively rank a team. All in all, pretty solid rankings from AP besides giving Utah State a little too much credit.
 
#33      
the juiceman cometh
Illinijoe said:
This is why the credibility of the AP poll is lost. There are no checks and balances and no accountability. Thankfully the committee uses real metrics.
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The check/balance is supposed to be aggregation. This guy only has one vote, and where his vote is an outlier its impact is minimal.

Any subjective ranking/rating system has the same problem. It's no better or worse than All-Star/Pro-Bowl selection, Rotten Tomatoes, Michelin Star, year-end "Best-of" lists, or most hiring decisions.
 
#34      
Illinijoe
the juiceman cometh said:
The check/balance is supposed to be aggregation. This guy only has one vote, and where his vote is an outlier its impact is minimal.

Any subjective ranking/rating system has the same problem. It's no better or worse than All-Star/Pro-Bowl selection, Rotten Tomatoes, Michelin Star, year-end "Best-of" lists, or most hiring decisions.
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Yeah agree - in the end the aggregation does help and most get it right. Things like college pool trackers make it easy to call it out.
 
#35      
RabidDawgClassic
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#36      
ejam21
Doesnt really matter but why are we behind teams like houston? 7 of their 10 wins are q3/q4 and theyve lost all their quad 1 games. Granted two of those are bama/auburn, but they also lost on a neutral floor to San diego st (35 net) in a quad 1 opportunity
 
#37      
Bert2022
Illinois:

NET Ranking = 7
KenPom = 11
Torvik = 8

Somehwhat interesting that all 3 of those ranking services has Auburn #1, yet AP and coaches keep TN at #1. TN highest ranking based on those 3 is #3.
 
#38      
IlliniFan42
Bert2022 said:
Illinois:

NET Ranking = 7
KenPom = 11
Torvik = 8

Somehwhat interesting that all 3 of those ranking services has Auburn #1, yet AP and coaches keep TN at #1. TN highest ranking based on those 3 is #3.
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I get it though, Auburn has lost and it's not like Tennessee is ducking real teams so their undefeated record has real value. Wait to see who TN loses to and compare that to the Duke loss Auburn sustained.
 
#39      
the juiceman cometh
ejam21 said:
Doesnt really matter but why are we behind teams like houston? 7 of their 10 wins are q3/q4 and theyve lost all their quad 1 games. Granted two of those are bama/auburn, but they also lost on a neutral floor to San diego st (35 net) in a quad 1 opportunity
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Funny thing is, compared to advanced metrics, Houston is actually very underrated by AP. Kenpom has Houston at #3, Torvik at #2, and NET at #4.

Their wins have all been by pretty comfortable margins, and their losses have been by 5 to Auburn, by 5 to Bama, and by 3 to SDSU. To an efficiency based metric, the difference between that kind of loss, and a 1 point win, is pretty minimal.

Edit to add, this is why tournament seeding and rankings diverge sometimes. The selection committee awards good wins, whereas efficiency-based rankings don't actually care about wins and losses. And AP voters are people attacking this question from all angles, each with a different way of looking at it (which is probably the best argument in favor of the AP poll - that it brings in voters who have different methods of evaluating the teams).
 
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#40      
ejam21
the juiceman cometh said:
Funny thing is, compared to advanced metrics, Houston is actually very underrated by AP. Kenpom has Houston at #3, Torvik at #2, and NET at #4.

Their wins have all been by pretty comfortable margins, and their losses have been by 5 to Auburn, by 5 to Bama, and by 3 to SDSU. To an efficiency based metric, the difference between that kind of loss, and a 1 point win, is pretty minimal.

Edit to add, this is why tournament seeding and rankings diverge sometimes. The selection committee awards good wins, whereas efficiency-based rankings don't actually care about wins and losses. And AP voters are people attacking this question from all angles, each with a different way of looking at it (which is probably the best argument in favor of the AP poll - that it brings in voters who have different methods of evaluating the teams).
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thats great context....thanks

I tend to overrate the "who have you beat" side of things ha
 
#41      
the juiceman cometh
ejam21 said:
thats great context....thanks

I tend to overrate the "who have you beat" side of things ha
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Wins are important too! I think there's a place for both. I think it's good that rankings like Kenpom don't punish Houston for losses that were so close they could have easily gone the other way (same with us and our loss to Tenn). At the same time, theoretically a team could have a high Kenpom rating along with a losing record (if all their wins were blowouts and all their losses by one possession). I wouldn't rank that team if I were a voter. Which is why I'm actually ok with AP voters not giving Houston a top 5 ranking, and I haven't stressed about the fact that our AP ranking has been below our Kenpom ranking for pretty much this entire season.
 
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#42      
Fighter of the Nightman
green_bay_energy said:
Highest ranked BIG10 team 😎
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I was looking at some of the Big Ten teams that were either near the bottom of the top 25 or the top of the receiving votes category, and there could be some pretty significant movement for next week's polls:

#22 UCLA: Home game vs. #24 Michigan is a great chance to stop the bleeding for the Bruins on Tuesday. They then travel to College Park for a Friday night showdown with a Maryland team that will be VERY desperate for a big win. I could see just about anything happening with UCLA's ranking this week, haha.

#24 Michigan: As seen above, Michigan travels to #22 UCLA on Tuesday. A win there and a home win vs. Washington on Sunday could really vault them up into the teens, depending on what happens above them.

RV #27 Nebraska: Away game at Iowa and away game at #20 Purdue. I have a feeling Nebraska goes 0-2 this week with a bit of a comedown, though. Iowa is desperate and due for a home game where they are just raining threes on their opponent, and I don't see the Huskers winning at Mackey. 2-0 obviously gets Nebraska ranked, and I think a win Iowa City plus a close loss to Purdue just might do the trick, too.

RV #30 Wisconsin: Away game at Rutgers and home game vs. Minnesota. Depending on who loses in front of them, a 2-0 week could very well have the Badgers ranked again.

As for #13 Illinois, protecting home court and going 2-0 this week almost certainly gets us back into the top 10! FWIW, here are some games played by some of the teams just ahead of us to maybe keep an eye on...

Tuesday 1/7
#1 Tennessee at #8 Florida: It obviously serves us to have the Vols keep winning, but I also think a home loss (even to #1) likely knocks Florida down past us, especially if they go down at Arkansas on Saturday.

Wednesday 1/8
#9 UConn at Villanova: Villanova has been improving quite a bit as the season has gone on, and they have won 7 of 8. Ya never know!

#10 Texas A&M at #17 Oklahoma: Maybe an OU win is enough for us to pass A&M but not get passed by Oklahoma?? Oklahoma then plays at 12-2 Georgia, and A&M hosts #5 Alabama, both on Saturday night.

Saturday 1/11
#11 Kansas at Cincinnati: Bo Bearcats!
 
#43      
Piotyr
the juiceman cometh said:
Wins are important too! I think there's a place for both. I think it's good that rankings like Kenpom don't punish Houston for losses that were so close they could have easily gone the other way (same with us and our loss to Tenn). At the same time, theoretically a team could have a high Kenpom rating along with a losing record (if all their wins were blowouts and all their losses by one possession). I wouldn't rank that team if I were a voter. Which is why I'm actually ok with AP voters not giving Houston a top 5 ranking, and I haven't stressed about the fact that our AP ranking has been below our AP ranking for pretty much this entire season.
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Efficiency metrics are good for evaluating the overall quality of a team, and there are resume metrics that are a good measure of quality wins like WAB (Wins above bubble) and SOR (strength of record). Someone with a high EM and middling SOR would be an example of a team that's performed well in the games they've played but their schedule hasn't shown that off fully. Houston is #2 in KP/BT and #51 in SOR.

Going the other way, a team with high SOR but low EM is a team that has a lot of good wins but doesn't ever look overly impressive. The prime example for that right now is Oklahoma, #3 in SOR and #54 in BT.

Press me to pick which is more impressive and who I'd take in a neutral floor matchup, though, and I pick Houston 10 times out of 10.
 
#46      
Piotyr
Speaking of efficiency margin, here's the updated B1G efficiency through 1/5 games:

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Things are still early, but the best teams are starting to push towards the top and the worst teams are falling to the bottom. Iowa and Oregon are going to take a while to stabilize after the blowouts they took early. Here's how I'd rank the B1G teams as of today:

Tier 1 - National contenders
1. Illinois - Overall best team by efficiency metrics, with a solid non-con that should keep them as a top 4 seed in the NCAA.
2. Michigan - 2 road wins like Illinois, but no losses yet. Second best team by efficiency metrics and viable for a top 4 seed.

Tier 2 - Solid NCAA tournament teams, could challenge for conference title
3. Michigan State - If the only games that counted were conference games, they'd be #1. If they can keep up this level of play throughout conference, they can win.
4. UCLA - Overall solid, good non-con wins, good road win at Oregon, aren't really blowing anyone out.
5. Purdue - Sketchy non-conference performance overall, but got the good Alabama win and blew out Minnesota on the road and NW at home to climb into contention.
6. Oregon - Two early home losses will hurt their ambitions for conference championship, but one of the best non-con resumes in the country. Can still contend, but dug themselves a hole.

Tier 3 - NCAA tournament teams, but a step behind the rest
7. Wisconsin - Good week to re-establish themselves as an upper-half B1G team.
8. Maryland - Rough week out west, paper thin non-conference resume, need to pick up some wins to solidify their spot as a potential top-8 tournament seed.
9. Nebraska - Good win over UCLA, solid resume overall, going to take a bit to overcome that MSU clobbering.

Tier 4 - NCAA tournament bubble
10. Indiana - They've played by far the easiest schedule so far in the B1G, but hey, they have won their games against Rutgers, PSU and Minnesota. Still probably one of the most talented teams in the country, they just have no idea how to play basketball as a unit effectively.
11. Penn State - Right on the edge of the bubble now, really could have used that home win against Indiana. Fortunately they've got a sure thing Q1-A win opportunity coming up this week to solidify their spot.
12. Ohio State - Some good non-con wins to keep them in the conversation but boy, they've really thrown out some clunkers this season.
13. Northwestern - Rough opening conference schedule with some unfortunate close calls. The win over Illinois keeps them in the conversation for the NCAAs but they do have to start putting up some wins here soon.
14. Iowa - A buzzer beater at home away from being winless in conference. Completely run off the court by Wisconsin. Neutral non-con wins over Washington State and Utah, who aren't great but count as Q2 wins to help the resume.

Tier 5 - B1G tournament bubble
15. USC - Two home losses and a road win in conference so far. Paper-thin non-conference schedule where they lost the only games of relevance (St Mary's, New Mexico, Cal). Still, road win counts in this group.
16. Rutgers - They've yet to get a really good win this season. They have two great players, but lost at home to Princeton and were non-competitive against two bubble teams in road games in the B1G. Probably a better team than USC but they have to actually show something.
17. Washington - Hey, they won a game in conference! That in itself is enough to separate themselves from Minnesota for the time being, where they're not automatically not making the B1G tournament.

Tier 6 - Better luck next year
18. Minnesota - Just so bad. Dawson Garcia is good, nothing else is good, and have somehow separated themselves as the worst team in an 18-team conference.
 
#47      
HereSoIDontGetFined
I think that rank is about right. Even as we had a "bad" game shooting it, we still put up 81. Offensively, we're just on another level.

On the other end, I had a good laugh at the fact that we gave up the exact same number of points to Oregon as we did Washington. In fact, we've given up 77 points exactly to four teams this year and we've won all four of those games.
 
#49      
EyeoftheIllini
IlliniFan42 said:
I get it though, Auburn has lost and it's not like Tennessee is ducking real teams so their undefeated record has real value. Wait to see who TN loses to and compare that to the Duke loss Auburn sustained.
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Right. Object of the game is still to win, not have a better KenPom ranking. And polls are primarily based upon what has happened, not predictive in nature.
 
#50      
Emerson Bigguns
ejam21 said:
thats great context....thanks

I tend to overrate the "who have you beat" side of things ha
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I'm not sure you can over-rate "who have you beat". The metrics are a great tool, but they don't tell the whole story. Great teams find ways to win close games. As previously stated, the metrics don't care if you win or lose. Consistently winning or losing close games can become part of a team's identity. They don't hang banners for being #1 in KenPom. You're going to have to walk into a gym and beat good teams.

That's why the win yesterday was huge for us. If we blow that lead and start adding that narrative (along with the breakdown @ NW) it could become something that sticks to a young team.
 
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