10 or 14. The pendulum of ranking. Haven't seen a battle like this since...
Illinois #14 in 2/12 AP Poll
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IlliniRunIn07
- Tampa, FL
Honestly would be more disappointed if we jumped to 9 instead of being back at 10 where we belong.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
I think we're only 11th 
sacraig
- The desert
I think we're only 11th
I’ll go 12th.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Losses by teams ahead of us this week:
4 Marquette
6 Kansas
7 North Carolina
11 South Carolina x2
13 Auburn
No chance we jump Marquette.
A typical one loss week drops a team ~4 spots (as we’ve seen over the past few weeks).
That would put 6 Kansas at 10 and 7 North Carolina at 11.
We 100% jump 11 South Carolina and likely jump 13 Auburn.
So I’ll say 12 too.
4 Marquette
6 Kansas
7 North Carolina
11 South Carolina x2
13 Auburn
No chance we jump Marquette.
A typical one loss week drops a team ~4 spots (as we’ve seen over the past few weeks).
That would put 6 Kansas at 10 and 7 North Carolina at 11.
We 100% jump 11 South Carolina and likely jump 13 Auburn.
So I’ll say 12 too.
Illini in Indiana
- Indiana
Add #2 Purdue loss too ! But Yes #11 or #12 seems fair.
With FAU losing and likely falling out of the top 25, we likely will not have a win yet over a team that is currently ranked in the top AP 25. We really need to beat Purdue to get a really good win over a highly ranked team. We may also see Michigan State be ranked soon. Not sure if Wisconsin will be ranked this week which could be another opportunity for us.
FAU is not our problem. We need to keep winning and focus on our team. There is nothing we can do about FAU. We aren't going to be judged by FAU. We beat them and that is all that matters.
I think this is the right spot to place this: can someone explain to me how BYU is ahead of The Beloved in the Net Rankings? Looks to me, Illinois is better in both Quad 1 and 2 categories. Other than Quads, I don't understand the system.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
I don’t know why they’re ahead of us, but I do know it doesn’t matter. Your direct NET ranking is not used in determining your seed - only the NET rankings of the teams you've played.
Thanks for your response. You are right--there are other factories that will determine where the Illini are placed. So, BYU may have played "stronger" opponents according to the NET rankings? That's how I interpret your post.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
No, not necessarily. Here‘s the equation for NET.
The formula below is how each team‘s net ranking is derived.
The NCAA selection committee then looks at the NET rankings for the teams you’ve played and looks at how you performed in those games based on the Quadrant each team is in. So your own team’s net ranking isn’t necessarily used in seeding you - more so the net rankings of the teams you’ve played and whether or not you won those games.
Got it--thanks!
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
A good example is Kansas. They’re 16 in NET. We‘re 12 in NET.
If the committee were to seed teams today though, Kansas would be the higher seed because they’re 11-5 in Quad 1/Quad 2 games and we’re just 8-6.
Your own NET ranking takes into account how you play in each game vs how well you were expected to play in each game based on your net ranking and the net ranking of your opponent, whereas the selection committee only takes into account whether you won or lose and who you won or loss to.
InDaAZ
- Eugene, Oregon
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Don’t understand the .475FT attempts in the eff. Calculation. Anyone explain the logic?
They are trying to derive trips down the court from basic stats. They are surely trying to do that because not every game is going to have a ready log of each play.
The 0.475 must be a rough estimate for change-of-possession fouls, affected by and-ones, made/missed front ends, etc.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Exactly right. There really aren't all that many situations:
- Shooting foul on a missed 2: 2 FTs, 1 possession
- Double bonus or 1&1 with made front end: 2 FTs, 1 possession
- And-1: 1 FT, 0 possessions (because the "possession" is already recorded as the made FG)
- 1&1, missed front end: 1 FT, 1 possession
- Technical/flagrant fouls - 1 or 2 FTs, 0 possessions (I think these would always be either a TO for the other team, or you'd retain possession)
Someone somewhere decided that that all averages out to about 0.475 possessions per FT - or in more intuitive terms, about 2.1 free throws per trip down the floor. I think And-1s are by and large the main contributing factor to why it isn't just 2.
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