We were #25 in the Preaseason poll.
Illinois #16 in 12/11 AP Poll
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After looking back at the preseason poll, 17/25 teams are still ranked. #4 MSU, #14 Arkansas, #15 Texas A&M, #17 SDSU, #21 USC, #22 Villanova, #23 St. Mary's, #24 Alabama all unranked.
Baylor (+14), Arizona(+12), , UNC(+10), Illinois (+9) are the biggest overperformers from the preaseason group...
Miami, Duke.. biggest fallers still in the poll.
Teams who received 0 preaseason votes but are in the top 25: Northwestern, James Madison, BYU, Colorado State, Clemson, Oklahoma.
Baylor (+14), Arizona(+12), , UNC(+10), Illinois (+9) are the biggest overperformers from the preaseason group...
Miami, Duke.. biggest fallers still in the poll.
Teams who received 0 preaseason votes but are in the top 25: Northwestern, James Madison, BYU, Colorado State, Clemson, Oklahoma.
Chad Fleck
- Eureka, IL
Interesting discussion topic on the "Eye on College Basketball" podcast today.
Apparently, for 20 years, the AP Top 25 poll has correctly "predicted" the national champion. Well, as in, one of the TOP 12 teams in that poll for the WEEK 6 AP POLL. No other poll is this true of through the season.
I believe this may have something to do with the non-conference schedule being mostly done. This, before the conference foes get to beating each other up.
Is this interesting data, or no?
Apparently, for 20 years, the AP Top 25 poll has correctly "predicted" the national champion. Well, as in, one of the TOP 12 teams in that poll for the WEEK 6 AP POLL. No other poll is this true of through the season.
I believe this may have something to do with the non-conference schedule being mostly done. This, before the conference foes get to beating each other up.
Is this interesting data, or no?
The week 6 AP poll has the eventual champion in the top 12 for the last 20 years?
That is interesting.
So what your saying is no National Championship for us this year?
Goillinikobd
- Southeastern US
So FAU drops 4 places and we gain 4 places. Nice symmetry. Remember that last week, they were 9 ? Places ahead of us, so it sort of makes sense that we are almost ahead of them.
Tennessee gets a lot of respect, with a 6-3 record, moving up 5 spaces, now that’s hard to do.
Goillinikobd
- Southeastern US
NW is in a tight game with Chicago State tied with with 2
1/2 min left in first half. CS is shooting lights out from 3
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
NW falls out after tonight's (likely) loss to Chicago St! Very entertaining 1st half!!!!!
We will look at this in a month and have a full shuffle. We just need to keep playing hard and building confidence in Brad's culture. This team has a chance to go to the Elite Eight or beyond. All depends on Coleman. ILL!
This year's Eastern Illinois beats Iowa. Chicago State was 335 in kenpom and 24.5 point underdog
And we might make it in week 7So what your saying is no National Championship for us this year?
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
For fun, here was the top 12 in the AP Poll for week six of the 2004-05 season and where those teams ended up:
1. ILLINOIS (50) - National Championship Game (preseason #5)
2. Kansas (15) - First Round (preseason #1)
3. Oklahoma State (5) - Sweet Sixteen (preseason #7)
4. North Carolina - National Champion (preseason #4)
5. Wake Forest - Second Round (preseason #2)
6. Duke - Sweet Sixteen (preseason #11)
7. Syracuse - First Round (preseason #6)
8. Kentucky - Elite Eight (preseason #9)
9. Georgia Tech - Second Round (preseason #3)
10. Pitt - First Round (preseason #17)
11. UConn - Second Round (preseason #8)
12. Washington - Sweet Sixteen (preseason #22)
Elite Eight teams that weren't in this top 12 included...
14. Arizona - Elite Eight (preseason #10)
18. Louisville - Final Four (preseason (preseason #14)
23. Michigan State - Final Four (preseason #13)
RV: Wisconsin - Elite Eight (preseason #21)
RV: West Virginia - Elite Eight (preseason NR)
While that is an interesting stat, I think there is one clearer point to take away from everything. There will ALWAYS be Cinderella runs, and there will ALWAYS be top seeds that flop early ... that's what makes it March Madness. However, the data over time is VERY clear that you give yourself the best chance at a deep NCAAT run if you get a top 3 seed or so , and being ranked in the top 12 is a pretty good measuring stick of where the "college basketball world" sees you ... and that group includes the NCAAT Committee.
1. ILLINOIS (50) - National Championship Game (preseason #5)
2. Kansas (15) - First Round (preseason #1)
3. Oklahoma State (5) - Sweet Sixteen (preseason #7)
4. North Carolina - National Champion (preseason #4)
5. Wake Forest - Second Round (preseason #2)
6. Duke - Sweet Sixteen (preseason #11)
7. Syracuse - First Round (preseason #6)
8. Kentucky - Elite Eight (preseason #9)
9. Georgia Tech - Second Round (preseason #3)
10. Pitt - First Round (preseason #17)
11. UConn - Second Round (preseason #8)
12. Washington - Sweet Sixteen (preseason #22)
Elite Eight teams that weren't in this top 12 included...
14. Arizona - Elite Eight (preseason #10)
18. Louisville - Final Four (preseason (preseason #14)
23. Michigan State - Final Four (preseason #13)
RV: Wisconsin - Elite Eight (preseason #21)
RV: West Virginia - Elite Eight (preseason NR)
While that is an interesting stat, I think there is one clearer point to take away from everything. There will ALWAYS be Cinderella runs, and there will ALWAYS be top seeds that flop early ... that's what makes it March Madness. However, the data over time is VERY clear that you give yourself the best chance at a deep NCAAT run if you get a top 3 seed or so , and being ranked in the top 12 is a pretty good measuring stick of where the "college basketball world" sees you ... and that group includes the NCAAT Committee.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Slow day ... I thought I would also post the total weeks in the AP Poll since Underwood kind of brought Illinois "back" with the 2019-20 season that was cancelled early due to COVID. That was really the first year we climbed out of the Groce Era hole:
1. Gonzaga (81)
2. Kansas (80)
2. Baylor (80)
4. Houston (70)
5. Duke (65)
6. Tennessee (63)
7. Texas (61)
8. Villanova (60)
9. Kentucky (57)
10. Arizona (55)
11. Virginia (52)
11. Auburn (52)
13. Ohio State (51)
14. Illinois (50)
15. Purdue (48)
16. Texas Tech (46)
17. Alabama (45)
18. Michigan State (42)
18. UCLA (42)
20. UConn (41)
21. Wisconsin (40)
21. Creighton (40)
23. San Diego State (37)
24. Iowa (33)
25. Florida State (32)
...
(Other Notables Teams)
27. Michigan (30)
31. Maryland (27)
45. Indiana (16)
47. Missouri (15)
72. Northwestern (3)
While it is very impressive that Illinois has been in over 60% of the polls during this timeframe, what makes it even more impressive is that it took us until week 11 of 2019-20 to enter the top 25 for the first time, as we were facing an uphill battle as far as program perception went. So, really since conference play started almost four years ago, we have probably been in closer to 70% of the polls. Even more impressive/surprising, is that (largely thankful to 2020-21) our average ranking is about 15.7 - rounded to our current #16 ranking today!
1. Gonzaga (81)
2. Kansas (80)
2. Baylor (80)
4. Houston (70)
5. Duke (65)
6. Tennessee (63)
7. Texas (61)
8. Villanova (60)
9. Kentucky (57)
10. Arizona (55)
11. Virginia (52)
11. Auburn (52)
13. Ohio State (51)
14. Illinois (50)
15. Purdue (48)
16. Texas Tech (46)
17. Alabama (45)
18. Michigan State (42)
18. UCLA (42)
20. UConn (41)
21. Wisconsin (40)
21. Creighton (40)
23. San Diego State (37)
24. Iowa (33)
25. Florida State (32)
...
(Other Notables Teams)
27. Michigan (30)
31. Maryland (27)
45. Indiana (16)
47. Missouri (15)
72. Northwestern (3)
While it is very impressive that Illinois has been in over 60% of the polls during this timeframe, what makes it even more impressive is that it took us until week 11 of 2019-20 to enter the top 25 for the first time, as we were facing an uphill battle as far as program perception went. So, really since conference play started almost four years ago, we have probably been in closer to 70% of the polls. Even more impressive/surprising, is that (largely thankful to 2020-21) our average ranking is about 15.7 - rounded to our current #16 ranking today!
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Nice analysis! Feels about right. In essence, we've been a Sweet Sixteen team, on average, over that entire time-frame. We now need a couple of Sweet Sixteen births the next 2-3 years to substantiate the ranking, validate the confidence of the media, and reward the fan base!
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
With a win over Colgate, we’ll 100% jump Gonzaga. No ranked wins. Two ranked losses + a loss to unranked Washington.
We‘ll likely jump an extra spot or two too with other teams losing. I could see us as high as ~13 next week.
We‘ll likely jump an extra spot or two too with other teams losing. I could see us as high as ~13 next week.
I could see us jumping as high as 12 if Creighton loses again, Clemson loses & Kentucky loses… maybe even to 11 if Baylor loses to a 4-5 MSU.
Parish at CBS' 25 and 1 has the Illini ranked 8th this week, FWIW.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
I predict 12 in the AP
I’ll go with 13.
6, 8,9, 10 and 13 lost in front of the Illini. Also FAU is ahead of Illinois. I could see a high as 11 and as low as 15 if they only bump Clemson behind us. I'll go with 13
Goodman has us at #9
Davis has us at #10
Fanta has us at #11
I know it doesn't matter but wouldn't it be cool to be in the top 10 again?
Davis has us at #10
Fanta has us at #11
I know it doesn't matter but wouldn't it be cool to be in the top 10 again?
drsmitty74
- Rochester
Pretty sure Goodman was at the game tonight.
Yup, he and his daughter were at both games.
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