Illinois #17 in Preseason AP Poll

OB positive said:

I will just be happy if Wagler can come in and spell Petrovic and Boswell without much of a drop-off. That would be a great weapon to have coming off the bench.

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Guest said:

I was going to post something along these lines as well. I wonder if the reason that KW may start the exhibition game, and according to one of the insiders, the Nov. 3rd game, is because MP was the last to join the team and may still be learning the ropes, so to speak. Also, MP still has not been cleared. Now, this doesn’t matter for the exhibition game, but if he is still not cleared by Nov. 3rd, he won’t be playing. So, it kind of makes sense that KW starts the ISU game if it looks as if he will also be starting the Nov. 3rd game because MP has not been cleared in order to give KW some experience running the point. As I mentioned in an earlier (long, long) post, I figured, as you also state, KW will spell both MP and KB during the season, maybe starting occasionally. Again, there are reasons to look at KW starting warily. First, he is a freshman, and no matter how good he is, freshmen make freshman mistakes. Second, he is favorably compared to Will Riley, but WR did not start until later in the season. Third, BU has described MP as a jet in glowing terms, more or less, and I think having someone play like a jet is something BU will like and will probably start MP. Fourth, and this is really pure speculation, it seems as if KW is getting all the press because he has turned out to be much better than anyone thought. And MP has merely met expectations. But those expectations were very good. And lastly, and probably least, wasn’t it a kind of truism that BU does not like to start freshmen? Or maybe he has changed his mind about that. On the other hand, I think KW will play starter minutes if he turns out to be as good as people have said. Also, who knows (except BU, of course)?

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LvilleILL1 said:

Wagler is really good. I think he has a chance to be a top 3 freshman in the conference this year.

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STLflyinIllini said:

I would for this to be true. I am not allowing myself to have any expectations for him though. Brad has cried wolf way too many times about "elite summer workouts."
I'll be happy if he gives us 5-10 solid minutes per game.

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STLflyinIllini said:

I would for this to be true. I am not allowing myself to have any expectations for him though. Brad has cried wolf way too many times about "elite summer workouts."
I'll be happy if he gives us 5-10 solid minutes per game.

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21ChampaignSt said:

So, how accurate are KenPom's preseason rankings?

Over the last 3 seasons, 16 of the 30 preseason top 10 teams ended the season in the top 10.

23 out of 30 ended in the top 15.

So, based on that sample, we have about a 75% chance of being a top 15, top 4 seed type of team.

Will be a fun year with a chance to be special.

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LvilleILL1 said:

Wagler is really good. I think he has a chance to be a top 3 freshman in the conference this year.

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jamarvelous31 said:

Curious to know what to expect. Is Cam Christie a decent comp?

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Fighter of the Nightman said:

Slow, gloomy Tuesday afternoon over here ... so here are the all-time appearances in the preseason top 25 for Big Ten programs, with the most recent year in parentheses.

UCLA - 49 total (2025-26)
Indiana - 32 total (2024-25)
Michigan - 31 total (2025-26)
Michigan State - 28 total (2025-26)
Purdue - 25 total (2025-26)
Maryland - 22 total (2021-22)
Ohio State - 22 total (2021-22)
Illinois - 21 total (2025-26)
Wisconsin - 15 total (2025-26)
Iowa - 15 total (2020-21)
USC - 13 total (2023-24)
Minnesota - 12 total (2017-18)
Oregon - 9 total (2022-23)
Washington - 7 total (2018-19)
Rutgers - 4 total (2024-25)
Nebraska - 2 total (2014-15)
Northwestern - 1 total (2017-18)
Penn State - Never

And since I know at least someone will be curious, here are the all-time appearances in the FINAL AP Poll of that season ... much more desirable!

UCLA - 43 total (2022-23)
Illinois - 30 total (2023-24)
Indiana - 29 total (2022-23)
Purdue - 27 total (2024-25)
Michigan State - 26 total (2024-25)
Maryland - 25 total (2024-25)
Michigan - 24 total (2024-25)
Ohio State - 24 total (2020-21)
Iowa - 21 total (2021-22)
Wisconsin - 19 total (2024-25)
USC - 11 total (2021-22)
Minnesota - 10 total (1996-97)
Washington - 8 total (2010-11)
Oregon - 6 total (2019-20)
Penn State - 2 total (1995-96)
Nebraska - 2 total (1993-94)
Rutgers - 2 total (1978-79)
Northwestern - Never
And total weeks in the AP Poll all-time:

UCLA - 743 total (2025-26)
Indiana - 580 total (2024-25)
Illinois - 520 total (2025-26)
Michigan State - 509 total (2025-26)
Purdue - 454 total (2025-26)
Michigan - 452 total (2025-26)
Ohio State - 448 total (2024-25)
Maryland - 446 total (2024-25)
Iowa - 387 total (2022-23)
Wisconsin - 328 total (2025-26)
Minnesota - 236 total (2020-21)
USC - 205 total (2023-24)
Oregon - 168 total (2024-25)
Washington - 162 total (2019-20)
Rutgers - 41 total (2024-25)
Nebraska - 34 total (2018-19)
Penn State - 25 total (2019-20)
Northwestern - 18 total (2023-24)

So if you took the differential of final minus preseason, a positive score would indicated a historically underrated program, and a negative score would indicate a historically overrated program ... here is that score for programs who have at least 15 all-time appearances in the final poll.

Illinois ... +9 (30 final vs. 21 pre)
Iowa ... +6 (21 final vs. 15 pre)
Wisconsin ... +4 (19 final vs. 15 pre)
Maryland ... +3 (25 final vs. 22 pre)
Purdue ... +2 (27 final vs. 25 pre)
Ohio State ... +2 (24 final vs. 22 pre)
Michigan State ... -2 (26 final vs. 28 pre)
Indiana ... -3 (29 final vs. 32 pre)
UCLA ... -6 (43 final vs. 49 pre)
Michigan ... -7 (24 final vs. 31 pre)

Just some fun information, but it should serve as an important reminder ... as much as we can develop a victim complex from time to time and as painful as some of our near misses (e.g., 1989 and 2005) have been, we have been a very lucky basketball fan base over the years, all things considered.

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blackdog said:

Sir I will have you know that it is Wednesday, aka one day closer to the weekend than Tuesday.

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Fighter of the Nightman said:

Shows you where my mental state is.

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blackdog said:

Sir I will have you know that it is Wednesday, aka one day closer to the weekend than Tuesday.

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Fighter of the Nightman said:

Slow, gloomy Tuesday afternoon over here ... so here are the all-time appearances in the preseason top 25 for Big Ten programs, with the most recent year in parentheses.

UCLA - 49 total (2025-26)
Indiana - 32 total (2024-25)
Michigan - 31 total (2025-26)
Michigan State - 28 total (2025-26)
Purdue - 25 total (2025-26)
Maryland - 22 total (2021-22)
Ohio State - 22 total (2021-22)
Illinois - 21 total (2025-26)
Wisconsin - 15 total (2025-26)
Iowa - 15 total (2020-21)
USC - 13 total (2023-24)
Minnesota - 12 total (2017-18)
Oregon - 9 total (2022-23)
Washington - 7 total (2018-19)
Rutgers - 4 total (2024-25)
Nebraska - 2 total (2014-15)
Northwestern - 1 total (2017-18)
Penn State - Never

And since I know at least someone will be curious, here are the all-time appearances in the FINAL AP Poll of that season ... much more desirable!

UCLA - 43 total (2022-23)
Illinois - 30 total (2023-24)
Indiana - 29 total (2022-23)
Purdue - 27 total (2024-25)
Michigan State - 26 total (2024-25)
Maryland - 25 total (2024-25)
Michigan - 24 total (2024-25)
Ohio State - 24 total (2020-21)
Iowa - 21 total (2021-22)
Wisconsin - 19 total (2024-25)
USC - 11 total (2021-22)
Minnesota - 10 total (1996-97)
Washington - 8 total (2010-11)
Oregon - 6 total (2019-20)
Penn State - 2 total (1995-96)
Nebraska - 2 total (1993-94)
Rutgers - 2 total (1978-79)
Northwestern - Never
And total weeks in the AP Poll all-time:

UCLA - 743 total (2025-26)
Indiana - 580 total (2024-25)
Illinois - 520 total (2025-26)
Michigan State - 509 total (2025-26)
Purdue - 454 total (2025-26)
Michigan - 452 total (2025-26)
Ohio State - 448 total (2024-25)
Maryland - 446 total (2024-25)
Iowa - 387 total (2022-23)
Wisconsin - 328 total (2025-26)
Minnesota - 236 total (2020-21)
USC - 205 total (2023-24)
Oregon - 168 total (2024-25)
Washington - 162 total (2019-20)
Rutgers - 41 total (2024-25)
Nebraska - 34 total (2018-19)
Penn State - 25 total (2019-20)
Northwestern - 18 total (2023-24)

So if you took the differential of final minus preseason, a positive score would indicated a historically underrated program, and a negative score would indicate a historically overrated program ... here is that score for programs who have at least 15 all-time appearances in the final poll.

Illinois ... +9 (30 final vs. 21 pre)
Iowa ... +6 (21 final vs. 15 pre)
Wisconsin ... +4 (19 final vs. 15 pre)
Maryland ... +3 (25 final vs. 22 pre)
Purdue ... +2 (27 final vs. 25 pre)
Ohio State ... +2 (24 final vs. 22 pre)
Michigan State ... -2 (26 final vs. 28 pre)
Indiana ... -3 (29 final vs. 32 pre)
UCLA ... -6 (43 final vs. 49 pre)
Michigan ... -7 (24 final vs. 31 pre)

Just some fun information, but it should serve as an important reminder ... as much as we can develop a victim complex from time to time and as painful as some of our near misses (e.g., 1989 and 2005) have been, we have been a very lucky basketball fan base over the years, all things considered.

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Fighter of the Nightman said:

Yessir

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Fighter of the Nightman said:

Once again calling all members of #TeamRankingsMatter. Whether you think rankings matter a lot or barely at all, there is probably no denying that it is good for the exposure and reputation of the program to consistently be playing in "top 25 matchups" ... so I personally want both our ranking and our opponent's ranking as high as possible when we tune in to watch these games! On that note, we are currently #17 and host #10 Texas Tech in Week Two. Barring an utter collapse, both of our teams should be 2-0 when this big matchup takes place.

With that in mind, here are a few top 25 games to watch in Week One if we want the Illini and Red Raiders to inch up a few spots! If nothing else, it might give you a casual rooting interest in a game you otherwise wouldn't care much about.

Monday, November 3
#13 Arizona vs. #3 Florida (Las Vegas, NV)
6:00 pm on TNT / TruTV
--->We probably wouldn't jump Arizona and TTU probably wouldn't jump Florida regardless of this game's result, but you never know if one team gets demolished. Honestly, this is just a game to watch because I think it'll be really cool!

Tuesday, November 4
Texas vs. #6 Duke (Charlotte, NC)
7:45 pm on ESPN
---> If Duke loses to unranked Texas in front of what will be a home crowd, I would expect TTU (and a number of other teams) to jump them. However, one should never overestimate how far the pollsters would drop Duke, haha. On the flip side, though, Texas is currently the fourth team in the RV category, so it wouldn't be out of the question for them to jump us if they beat a top 10 Duke game in a semi-road game.

Friday, November 7
#19 Kansas at #25 North Carolina
6:00 pm on ESPN
---> Personally, I say root for the Tar Heels here so KU doesn't jump in front of us. It's possible UNC could jump all the way in front of us with a convincing win, but since it's at home I would say that would be unlikely.

Saturday, November 8
#15 Alabama at #5 St. John's (NY)
11:00 am on FS1
---> This one is kind of a double-edged sword since we play Alabama later in the year, and regardless of how it helps in immediate rankings changes ... you gotta root for 'Bama here for NET, SOS, resume, etc. purposes.

#14 Arkansas at #22 Michigan State
6:00 pm on FOX
---> Similar to the KU/UNC game above, IMO, in that I doubt MSU gets THAT much of a bump from a win. So, when combined with cheering for the Big Ten in general, I am definitely rooting for a Spartan beatdown and Arkansas tumbling below us in the polls!


Basically, I am predicting and hoping for the following scenario:

1) Illini and Texas Tech both start off 2-0.
2) Alabama scores the upset win at MSG vs. the Johnies in convincing fashion on Saturday.
3) #22 Michigan State demolishes #14 Arkansas in East Lansing on Saturday.
4) Illini move up to #16 as part of a group of teams passing Arkansas. Texas Tech moves up to #9 as a group of teams passing #5 St. John's (NY).
5) #16 Illinois makes a statement in a dominating win vs. #9 Texas Tech and sky rockets into the top 10.

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Fighter of the Nightman said:

Once again calling all members of #TeamRankingsMatter. Whether you think rankings matter a lot or barely at all, there is probably no denying that it is good for the exposure and reputation of the program to consistently be playing in "top 25 matchups" ... so I personally want both our ranking and our opponent's ranking as high as possible when we tune in to watch these games! On that note, we are currently #17 and host #10 Texas Tech in Week Two. Barring an utter collapse, both of our teams should be 2-0 when this big matchup takes place.

With that in mind, here are a few top 25 games to watch in Week One if we want the Illini and Red Raiders to inch up a few spots! If nothing else, it might give you a casual rooting interest in a game you otherwise wouldn't care much about.

Monday, November 3
#13 Arizona vs. #3 Florida (Las Vegas, NV)
6:00 pm on TNT / TruTV
--->We probably wouldn't jump Arizona and TTU probably wouldn't jump Florida regardless of this game's result, but you never know if one team gets demolished. Honestly, this is just a game to watch because I think it'll be really cool!

Tuesday, November 4
Texas vs. #6 Duke (Charlotte, NC)
7:45 pm on ESPN
---> If Duke loses to unranked Texas in front of what will be a home crowd, I would expect TTU (and a number of other teams) to jump them. However, one should never overestimate how far the pollsters would drop Duke, haha. On the flip side, though, Texas is currently the fourth team in the RV category, so it wouldn't be out of the question for them to jump us if they beat a top 10 Duke game in a semi-road game.

Friday, November 7
#19 Kansas at #25 North Carolina
6:00 pm on ESPN
---> Personally, I say root for the Tar Heels here so KU doesn't jump in front of us. It's possible UNC could jump all the way in front of us with a convincing win, but since it's at home I would say that would be unlikely.

Saturday, November 8
#15 Alabama at #5 St. John's (NY)
11:00 am on FS1
---> This one is kind of a double-edged sword since we play Alabama later in the year, and regardless of how it helps in immediate rankings changes ... you gotta root for 'Bama here for NET, SOS, resume, etc. purposes.

#14 Arkansas at #22 Michigan State
6:00 pm on FOX
---> Similar to the KU/UNC game above, IMO, in that I doubt MSU gets THAT much of a bump from a win. So, when combined with cheering for the Big Ten in general, I am definitely rooting for a Spartan beatdown and Arkansas tumbling below us in the polls!


Basically, I am predicting and hoping for the following scenario:

1) Illini and Texas Tech both start off 2-0.
2) Alabama scores the upset win at MSG vs. the Johnies in convincing fashion on Saturday.
3) #22 Michigan State demolishes #14 Arkansas in East Lansing on Saturday.
4) Illini move up to #16 as part of a group of teams passing Arkansas. Texas Tech moves up to #9 as a group of teams passing #5 St. John's (NY).
5) #16 Illinois makes a statement in a dominating win vs. #9 Texas Tech and sky rockets into the top 10.

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