Illinois #25 in 11/19 CFB Playoff Rankings

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#26      
Fly Illini Fly!
Illinioptimist said:
I’ve seen on Twitter the past few days that Illinois has a 1% chance of making the playoff. Obviously that won’t happen but what would be a path to make it become more realistic?

I’m assuming some losses in the SEC so less of their teams qualify along with ND losing. What else would have to happen?
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On the last thread someone asked something along these lines... I randomly posted something where UGA had to lose to TENN and GA TECH... UGA of course beat TENN...

I think any scenario right now - even the craziest of craziest - would involve the committee putting in a 3 loss Illinois over a 3 loss SEC team... which just isn't going to happen.

I know it sounds stupid - the scenario - a 3 loss Illinois in a CFP... but if a couple "other" games went differently around the country, still very, very unlikely we would've gotten in, but there probably would've been a little more of a definite answer here.

At this point right now, it really probably is no chance. The MINN game sealed it for us.
 
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#28      
WeWillWhen
Illinioptimist said:
I’ve seen on Twitter the past few days that Illinois has a 1% chance of making the playoff. Obviously that won’t happen but what would be a path to make it become more realistic?

I’m assuming some losses in the SEC so less of their teams qualify along with ND losing. What else would have to happen?
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I'll give this a shot:
(1) Illini beat Rutgers and NW (duh)
(2) UNLV loses to San Jose St. or to Nevada to drop to 3 (or 4) losses
(3) Mizzou loses @ Miss St. or to Arkansas to drop to 4 losses
(4) Iowa State loses @Utah or to Kansas State to drop to 3 (or 4) losses
(5) Arizona State beats BYU (to drop them way out of Top 12), then loses to Arizona to drop to 3 losses
(6) Tulane loses to Memphis to drop to 3 losses
(7) Army loses to ND and Navy
(8) South Carolina loses @Clemson (they ain't losing to Wofford) to drop to 4 losses
(9) Clemson loses in ACC Championship to get to 3 losses?
(10) Colorado loses @Kansas or to Okla St to get to 3 (or 4) losses
(11) TAMU loses to Auburn or @ Texas to get to 3 (or 4) losses
(12) SMU loses @ Virginia or to Cal (one of these might not be enough for Illini to pass them)
(13) Boise St. loses @Wyoming or to Oregon State
(14) Tennessee loses at Vandy to drop to 3 losses

So my rooting guide for this week is:
Virginia over SMU
ASU over BYU
ND over Army
San Jose St. over UNLV
Miss St. over Miznoz
Wyoming over Boise St.
Auburn over TAMU
Utah over Iowa St.

Many of these are possible, but beating Minny at home sure would have been a lot easier.
 
#29      
Ander1345
WeWillWhen said:
I'll give this a shot:
(1) Illini beat Rutgers and NW (duh)
(2) UNLV loses to San Jose St. or to Nevada to drop to 3 (or 4) losses
(3) Mizzou loses @ Miss St. or to Arkansas to drop to 4 losses
(4) Iowa State loses @Utah or to Kansas State to drop to 3 (or 4) losses
(5) Arizona State beats BYU (to drop them way out of Top 12), then loses to Arizona to drop to 3 losses
(6) Tulane loses to Memphis to drop to 3 losses
(7) Army loses to ND and Navy
(8) South Carolina loses @Clemson (they ain't losing to Wofford) to drop to 4 losses
(9) Clemson loses in ACC Championship to get to 3 losses?
(10) Colorado loses @Kansas or to Okla St to get to 3 (or 4) losses
(11) TAMU loses to Auburn or @ Texas to get to 3 (or 4) losses
(12) SMU loses @ Virginia or to Cal (one of these might not be enough for Illini to pass them)
(13) Boise St. loses @Wyoming or to Oregon State
(14) Tennessee loses at Vandy to drop to 3 losses

So my rooting guide for this week is:
Virginia over SMU
ASU over BYU
ND over Army
San Jose St. over UNLV
Miss St. over Miznoz
Wyoming over Boise St.
Auburn over TAMU
Utah over Iowa St.

Many of these are possible, but beating Minny at home sure would have been a lot easier.
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I have a hard time.rooting for Notre Dame over Army. Would honestly like to see them shock the Irish....
 
#30      
Fighter of the Nightman
Ander1345 said:
I think it justhas a lot to do with whether it's your team or not that's getting in...
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There’s probably also a subconscious crabs in the bucket mentality. We all ACCEPT that OSU and Alabama are just a tier above the rest of us, potentially indefinitely. To see a school like Indiana get to heights programs like ours (or Iowa, Arkansas, Kansas State, etc.) feel are daunting heights is a bit more threatening.

You’ll notice this on message boards a lot. Nothing gets rival fans to get as irrationally nasty than an up-and-coming program … we heard plenty of it in hoops from 2019-20 to 2021-22, mostly because a resurgent Illinois left less room at the top and the other schools hated that.
 
#31      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
Don't want to get deep into this, but there's really no way they're putting a 3 loss Tennessee (with a loss to Vandy) below a 3 loss Illinois. They have a win vs Bama.

Also, Army winning that would help us. That would knock ND out/possibly below us (USC beating them would also ensure this) and they'd take Boise's spot as the other G5 school (Boise losing would also ensure them falling below us). Remember 1 G5 team gets in no matter what - you get do sort of a 2 for 1 there. I honestly think ND has to lose in any which way you try to come up with this.

There's 5 SEC teams that will very, very likely go 10-2. I think if a few of them lost in some of the other games (for example, UGA-OLE MISS, FLORIDA-TENN, BAMA-TENN) that would've made this just a little more reasonable. Still highly, highly unlikely.

All in all, Minnesota sealed the deal. Health and lack of depth was the factor IMO, along with Luke's turnovers, near misses on some throws, and bad O-Line play.
 
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#35      
aaeismacgychel
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Also, just for the sake of it, is there any chance IU falls below a 9-3 Illinois if they lose both to Purdue and Ohio State? I just don't like Indiana man.
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I'd say yes, though our case isn't all that strong. Indiana losing to the worst P5 team in college football would be an abysmal loss and with no quality wins, it'd submarine them. Problem is we also don't have a quality win (@Neb and @Rut are the best we can do) so we also don't have a resume that historic 3 loss major conference teams who bypass 2 loss major conference teams do.

So I think we would edge them out, but the only reason we're even ranked in the CFP currently with 3 losses is our overall quality of loss, so, it's a weird one for sure.
 
#36      
Ander1345
Fighter of the Nightman said:
There’s probably also a subconscious crabs in the bucket mentality. We all ACCEPT that OSU and Alabama are just a tier above the rest of us, potentially indefinitely. To see a school like Indiana get to heights programs like ours (or Iowa, Arkansas, Kansas State, etc.) feel are daunting heights is a bit more threatening.

You’ll notice this on message boards a lot. Nothing gets rival fans to get as irrationally nasty than an up-and-coming program … we heard plenty of it in hoops from 2019-20 to 2021-22, mostly because a resurgent Illinois left less room at the top and the other schools hated that.
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I check the Purdue boards from time to time and the utter condescension with which they referred to our football program has been vindicated twice over with them hiring our "scraps" and also how poorly the team is doing.
 
#38      
Fighter of the Nightman
Ander1345 said:
I check the Purdue boards from time to time and the utter condescension with which they referred to our football program has been vindicated twice over with them hiring our "scraps" and also how poorly the team is doing.
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Yep, perfect example. If OSU remains good, it's no skin off Purdue fans' backs. If Illinois has its second 8+ win season in three years while Purdue goes from a Big Ten West title to losing its coach to an ACC program to a 1-win season?? That is an existential threat to them, lol.
 
#41      
phats22
Fighter of the Nightman said:
There’s probably also a subconscious crabs in the bucket mentality. We all ACCEPT that OSU and Alabama are just a tier above the rest of us, potentially indefinitely. To see a school like Indiana get to heights programs like ours (or Iowa, Arkansas, Kansas State, etc.) feel are daunting heights is a bit more threatening.

You’ll notice this on message boards a lot. Nothing gets rival fans to get as irrationally nasty than an up-and-coming program … we heard plenty of it in hoops from 2019-20 to 2021-22, mostly because a resurgent Illinois left less room at the top and the other schools hated that.
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subconscious crabs are the worst
tumblr_owdgo0jdmI1ur5m8bo6_r1_400 (1).gif
 
#42      
Calvin
I definitely think conference size and scheduling is an issue. Just going off Sagarin ratings here are some schedules

Colorado 0 - 1 against top-30
Clemson 0-2 (one top ten, so even though they haven't won they've at least played a couple)
Indiana 0-0
Boise is 0-1, but their path is unique so I don't begrudge them any schedule that gives them the best change to get there from the G5

Looking around, it really does look like the SEC is likely to get the short end of the stick. Teams that haven't beaten anyone good seem to do better in the rankings. BIG has several teams doing well, and SEC has good depth but the resumes have bigger holes mixed with a good overall strength of schedule.
 
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