Posted on Illiniboard.com in response to Robert's pessimistic perspective on the game.
https://illiniboard.com/story/2018/9/1/welcome-to-last-year/
Longtime lurker, first time responder. Really enjoy this blog, and echo San Joaquin’s post above about how much info Robert provides to those of us fans who stick with the team through thick and thin but don’t have a lot of options in terms of solid analysis of this stumbling, bumbling program that we hope to be turning a corner. Add the fact that I live in Japan and can never watch these games until Sunday, and only on BTN2GO International on my laptop (a pretty decent product, actually), and I’m not in a position to have inside info on the program.
I’m very surprised at 1) Robert’s pessimism and 2) almost everyone else’s lack of pessimism. Let’s take those in order.
Robert’s pessimism is very concerning to me. Year after year, he has a considerably better sense of the state of the program than I do. I’m getting a broken link on last year’s season preview, but I believe he was thinking 2, MAYBE 3 wins. And I was like no, 4, MAYBE 5. And Robert was absolutely spot on and I was not. And I was sad. This year Robert is (was?) in the 4, MAYBE 5 camp, and I feel comfortable there. I trust him more than I trust myself now.
That said, I’m surprised that others are pushing back on Robert’s pessimism so much. Because that performance was pretty underwhelming on the whole. BUT, Barrett is at least a decent FBS quarterback. AND, that 32-year-old Kent State coach has some stones and made all the right decisions. AND all the suspensions/injuries of key players.
SO, I’m struggling to decide whether I’m more aligned with Robert or more aligned with the majority of the responses. I think I’m more aligned with the majority of the responses, and it has everything to do with the difference between the first 34 minutes and the last 26. (Remember, the Illini went 3-and-out to start the 2nd half and Kent State was marching before the interception.) Let’s extrapolate:
After 34 minutes, the Illini were down 17-3. Extrapolated over the course of an entire game, the Illini lose 30-5. Call it 30-6 to make it a football score. There are legitimate arguments which ensue regarding whether it is the worst loss in the history of the nearly 130-year-old program.
In the final 26 minutes, the Illini won 28-7. Let’s call it 31-10, because under not-end-of-the-game circumstances, both teams would likely have come away with at least field goals in their final possessions. Extrapolated over the course of an entire game, the Illini win 72-23. There are legitimate arguments which ensue regarding whether Lovie was the best hire in the history of the nearly 130-year-old program and most folks are wondering not whether we’ll go to a bowl but how prestigious it will be.
That the final 26 minutes came after the first 34 is important in terms of morale/momentum/moxie. But the Illini will lose every one of their last ten games if they play 34 consecutive minutes as poorly as the played the first 34 minutes against Kent State, regardless of their morale/momentum/moxie. On the other hand, if they play as well for 26-minute stretches against B1G opponents as they did in the last 26 minutes against Kent State (AND the suspensions get resolved) they could go bowling. And I’m leaning towards trusting those final 26 minutes moreso than the first 34…and that is largely informed by Robert’s reporting. We shall see.
Question for those who historically have followed these things more than I have: Are the indefinite suspensions really indefinite, or can we translate that as “suspended until our first real test against USF”?