Excellent way to analyze it. At this point PFF has PB13 listed as a mid-fourth round NFL draft pick. I just looked it up and was surprised that this would mean a guaranteed 4 year contract at about $4.5 to $4.8 million dollars, which is more than I expected. That is a lot of money to risk for one bowl game and if it were my son I would probably counsel them against playing IF asked for my opinion.
In contrast, a 3rd round pick goes from $5.5 million to $6 million dollars guaranteed. Estimates vary, but only about 60% of NFL players get a second contract, which is consistent with the incredible statistic that the average NFL career is only 3.3 years.
So ultimately, looking at it from the outside, the financial question that PB13 needs to realistically answer for himself is whether a great performance in the Citrus Bowl could help boost him up to the 3rd round and an additional $1million plus in guaranteed compensation. Yes, it would need to be followed by a great Senior Bowl and a slightly faster than expected time in his individual and combine workouts after extensive additional specialized speed training, but with what is at stake does anyone doubt that with PB13's work ethic that it could happen?
Playing would be the first step in a $1 million plus bet on himself. I predict that he will play.
