Illinois 61, Wisconsin 51 Postgame

#227      

Illini2010-11

Sugar Grove
One other thing to mention, Michigan's 81-46 demolition of Maryland is still doing a ton of heavy lifting in the model, and if you just take that single game out, Maryland is 8th and Michigan is 9th.
This is 100% the reason why outlier removal/smoothing is paramount in any valid statistical analysis, though the 20+ point beat down Michigan is taking @ PSU right now will be the smoothing necessary.
 
#228      
This is 100% the reason why outlier removal/smoothing is paramount in any valid statistical analysis, though the 20+ point beat down Michigan is taking @ PSU right now will be the smoothing necessary.
It's just a linear analysis, and it's important to incorporate all data points into the model, as even the outliers count. It smooths out the more data points you get, which is why it was super volatile at the start, by the halfway point it's fairly reliable (with the caveat that the largest result in the conference thus far still affects the model in a significant way), and by the end of the season it's a good analysis of how efficient each team is.

Right now it's successful in demonstrating just how interchangeable that middle 11 is overall, though Wisconsin is doing their best to separate from the pack in the wrong way.

EDIT: Updated from the result of the PSU-Michigan game (eyeballed the possession count in the game, the one stat I wish box scores included):
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#229      
I'm unreasonably disappointed by that last 3.

Actually, going for that last 3 is a sign of Wisky’s desperate submission to and sense of defeat to the Illini.

The Boys from the Northlands were so defeated and deflated and dejected and devastated at the hands of their Betters to the South that they had to go for that 3 as a last-ditch attempt at retrieving some tiny shred of their lost dignity and deflated self-assurance in the face of being vanished on their now-conquered home floor. It was a sign of desperation born of weakness and lost pride and a sense of panic.

Something the guys in Orange should smile about.
 
#232      
RJ is thinking when he shoots ( should I shoot? I'm wide open, what if I miss? etc) He is aiming rather than shooting. Like a pitcher that has control problem starts aiming his pitches and gets smoked. Bill Russel said a big part of defense is getting the shooter out of rhythm.

Basketball is a game of instincts and improvisation. Yes, you have to do your preparation and use good sense when on the court. But ‘thinking’ in this sport or any other is fatal to good performance.

It takes very, very little to turn a shot from a made-score into miss. And that ‘little’ can be from body or from mind. Mind is the thinking part that you cannot over-do.

But the body part is all the right body moves that must sync to make a successful shot. Any kind of bad footing... over-tension in the legs, knees, arms, back, or wrists will throw shot off just enough (or a lot) to become a miss. The wrong ‘loft’ angle on the shot. Too much (or too little) spin on the ball. It all just comes together in a nanosecond when you launch a successful shot.

This is especially so when you shoot from distance. The margin for error gets smaller to be successful. When you shoot from closer-in you are allowed a bit more error in your shot that can create a score (since the ‘hoop’ width from closer-in is ‘bigger’ in proportion to when you are closer on the floor.

Guys at all levels today are amazing when shooting from distance. What used to be a game specialty is now almost a requirement for anybody playing this game. Which is a testament to practice... practice... practice...

And NOT thinking too much out there.
 
#234      

sacraig

The desert
Actually, going for that last 3 is a sign of Wisky’s desperate submission to and sense of defeat to the Illini.

The Boys from the Northlands were so defeated and deflated and dejected and devastated at the hands of their Betters to the South that they had to go for that 3 as a last-ditch attempt at retrieving some tiny shred of their lost dignity and deflated self-assurance in the face of being vanished on their now-conquered home floor. It was a sign of desperation born of weakness and lost pride and a sense of panic.

Something the guys in Orange should smile about.
It was Wisconsin trying to get their score above 50 and take some sense of pride back to the locker room with them. And they succeeded.

I'd rather be able to say we held them under 50. That's ludicrously impressive.
 
#235      
I think for RJ, it's his first step that gets him into trouble. When he moves or cuts immediately he can be pretty explosive, the issue is that I think he hesitates a little and it limits his ability to get by that first defender as the acceleration just isn't there. CoHawk has the same issue at times. If RJ has it in his mind to drive before the ball gets to him, I think he can reach that dynamic level. Of course hitting open threes also helps as it forces his defender to get up on him allowing for the easier blowby, but that's a story for another time, as he's currently shooting 25% on primarily wide open threes.
You might be right. For CoHawk, I feel like he doesn't have the handle or lateral quickness to get by people that easy unless he faces a slow opponent. RJ, I think he has it but does not use it often enough. That's what I am upset about him.
 
#236      
Hawkins was only the third best scoring choice on his high school team and about fifth choice for the last two years as an Illini. How can anyone believe he would suddenly be the main scorer this year? He has and always will be a fcilitator on offense.
 
#237      
He's still pretty proficient at finishing.

Per synergy he is making 57% of his layups at the rim......2021 ayo dosunmu was 59%.......he's finishing just fine id say
He is one of our few players that can finish and create shots at the rim. I don’t know what bergd91 is watching. I would put him right up there with Kiwane Garris at finishing and doing that is pretty awesome for a freshman. Will only get better. I’ll take 57% any day of the week.
 
#239      
Coleman dribbled super fast up the court that ended with a MM 3 pointer. Looked like an NBA type talent to do that at 6-10. Still needs more strength, decision making, aggresiveness and 3 pointer.
 
#240      
Told ya’ll with the constant negative posts about these boys in the game thread. We’re ok. Hell, we may lose 3,4,5 more games before the big dance but WE WILL BE OK.

Typed as i sit here with a Jameson buzz in Peoria, IL.