The hole in this though is that I don't think you're going to get teams selling out to stop a midrange shot to the extent they are going to give you open layups and threes. If a team starts mixing in midrange jumpers, the reaction to that is not to change your defense to stop it, and then start letting them have more open looks from 2 feet or the three point line, but rather, the reaction would be to just let them have those shots.
Illinois 66, Oakland 54 Postgame
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The hole in this though is that I don't think you're going to get teams selling out to stop a midrange shot to the extent they are going to give you open layups and threes. If a team starts mixing in midrange jumpers, the reaction to that is not to change your defense to stop it, and then start letting them have more open looks from 2 feet or the three point line, but rather, the reaction would be to just let them have those shots.
Say that to Will and Ben and they'll spot up at the half court line with big smiles on their faces ready to launch LOLWe should also take more half court shots to create even more space for closer in threes and layups
Of course, but we don't have him. I am just talking about not casually walking the ball up the court, or looking for the outlet pass. This is a good passing team. Last year they had to make one pass to TJ and that was 2 points. This year they might need an old fashioned fast break, but when you don't try, you don't get the fast break points. This was especially so with a team like Oakland. If we are slow, we let them set up their defense. Our advantage was in space.
My example wasn't actually recommending anything, it was just trying to be helpful in creating a practical example to explain what the other user was saying mathematically. Because the idea of including something worse so that things improve overall isn't the most intuitive thing for people not all that familiar with probabilities.
In reality it depends on the quality of shot you're getting. Right now we're getting very good looks, so hard to complain about the shot chart in my opinion. If we were taking heavily contested threes at a 60% clip, I'd have concerns. Because while open threes are an extremely efficient shot, contested threes that you hit on average less than 30% of the time are not. Point is, it's both. You want a highly efficient shot chart with high quality attempts. We've gotten both thus far and if we keep it up the entire season, our offensive efficiency numbers will be ridiculously high.
Excellent argumentation.
I wonder, too, if the mid-range shot becomes relatively more valuable during crunch time, when a defense goes absolutely all out to defend both the rim and the 3-point line. In the NBA, in crunch time, it is interesting to see how many mid-range, tough, tough shots are taken by guys like Jamal Murray or Jalen Brunson.
In the analytics I've seen, it's at the hoop or 3 pointer. Everything in between is mid-range in the paint or not. Granted there is some debate at the fringes..say 4 ft away.
From that perspective most of Tomi's points came in the mid-range.
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Not sure i would want to watch Brad chomping down on cottage cheese like he did the popcornLove coach. One of the Loyalty Insiders should try and get someone to hand him some cottage cheese during media!
Not sure the point you are making, but a 7-foot-1 guy flinging the ball at the basket from 6 to 8 feet away directly in front of the rim does not = mid range jump shot to me.
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You keep getting hung up on mid-range jump shot. Thats NOT the definition of mid-range with analytics.
Not sure if im correct but if its in the paint I dont consider it midrange.
I'm not speaking in analytic technicalities, I'm being pragmatic.
There is a huge difference in Tomi's little 6 foot push/fling and an 18 foot jump shot.
Mid-Range is OK, you just want it to be a take what the defense gives you scenario and not a way to structure your offense.
I think the broadcast even showed a graphic of points in the paint and it wasn’t counting Tomi’s shots as “in the paint”. I personally would call most of his as in the paint, but
I think the broadcast even showed a graphic of points in the paint and it wasn’t counting Tomi’s shots as “in the paint”. I personally would call most of his as in the paint, but
Yep then that graphic would be wrong lol he was not outside the painted area on any of those attempts
Yes...I hear you....I too would like to see us pick up pace.
Also would love to have a driver who can at least attempt to emulate TSJ on going to basket. Agree that Riley may become that guy...need that driving prowess sooner than later.
Me too....but I am not sure Riley can finish after hard contact. Not likely a role anyone on this team can do consistently. White may have the physical skills, but it just is not anything he looks to do or can do.
There is a reason no other player in Illini history, or any team's history for that matter, has driven the ball through every defense and finished like TSJr. If it was easy, everyone would do it.
TSJ was a unicorn.
As EyeoftheIllini pointed out, the Illini had 13 fast break points against Oakland this year vs. only 6 last year. The Illini pushed the pace 10 times against Oakland (including breakaway steals) and scored 5 times. Oakland was getting back very well the other two thirds of the time, but this year's team is pushing the tempo when they get the chance and they are getting good looks as a result.
Last year's Oakland team was a lot better and not really because of Gohlke. Trey Townsend was a stud but they also lost Lampman, Conway, and Watts.
I’ve never seen anyone create fast breaks so easily.
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