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Illinois 69, Ohio State 60 Postgame
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<blockquote data-quote="danielb927" data-source="post: 1853560" data-attributes="member: 3372"><p>Totally depends on your perspective.</p><p></p><p>From the point of view of a team trying to win a game - absolutely agree. If you can't win in regulation, the next best thing is to tie and force OT. If I'm a losing coach, I'm probably happier if my team at least sent the game to OT.</p><p></p><p>From the point of view of trying to decide how good a team is - different story. Why should I care <em>why </em>the teams are playing 5 extra minutes? All those extra minutes give me are extra data points. If I decide a 1-point regulation win is worth more than a 10-point OT win, I'm implicitly deciding that OT "means less".</p><p></p><p>But why should it mean less? If you believe in "clutchness", wouldn't it mean even more? And why stop at OT - should the last 5:00 of the game be treated differently too? If a team loses by 2, did they play better if they had the game tied with 5:00 to go and let it slip away, or if they were down 10 and clawed almost all the way back?</p><p></p><p>Most systems (as far as I know) don't try to answer this - except for "garbage time", they treat the first and last possession of the game as data points with equal importance. I'm not saying that's necessarily the best way, but I don't know that anyone has a system so far that can quantify "importance of a possession" in a way that adds to the predictive power of the system.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="danielb927, post: 1853560, member: 3372"] Totally depends on your perspective. From the point of view of a team trying to win a game - absolutely agree. If you can't win in regulation, the next best thing is to tie and force OT. If I'm a losing coach, I'm probably happier if my team at least sent the game to OT. From the point of view of trying to decide how good a team is - different story. Why should I care [I]why [/I]the teams are playing 5 extra minutes? All those extra minutes give me are extra data points. If I decide a 1-point regulation win is worth more than a 10-point OT win, I'm implicitly deciding that OT "means less". But why should it mean less? If you believe in "clutchness", wouldn't it mean even more? And why stop at OT - should the last 5:00 of the game be treated differently too? If a team loses by 2, did they play better if they had the game tied with 5:00 to go and let it slip away, or if they were down 10 and clawed almost all the way back? Most systems (as far as I know) don't try to answer this - except for "garbage time", they treat the first and last possession of the game as data points with equal importance. I'm not saying that's necessarily the best way, but I don't know that anyone has a system so far that can quantify "importance of a possession" in a way that adds to the predictive power of the system. [/QUOTE]
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Illinois 69, Ohio State 60 Postgame
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