These 2nd half woes have really been concerning to me. I saw some other people making some general comment on this topic in this thread so I thought I'd share some stats I pulled together.
Note that the info below excludes our 4 “cupcake” games as they skew numbers (even though we only went 3-1 in those games). Games excluded are: Evansville, Missouri Valley, Eastern Tennessee, and FAU.
So, excluding those we have played 25 games in which we are 8-17.
We had the lead at halftime in 13 of the 25 games (52%) but won only 32% of the games (8 of 25).
Looking at just second halves of games, we would be 5-19-1. The only games we haven’t lost the 2nd half are:
- The first NEB game (+1) - LOSS
- The first MIN game (+4) – this is surprisingly positive given bench play in a blowout - WIN
- Maryland (+15!!!) 0 WIN
- Rutgers (+3) – to force OT which we did win - WIN
- The 2nd OSU game (+4) - WIN
- And we tied Penn State in the 2nd half – LOSS
So, when winning the 2nd half, we are 4-1 (or 4-2 if you include the 2nd half tie vs PSU). Let’s include the PSU loss for arguments sake. That means we win at a 67% clip when we win the 2nd half. When we lose the 2nd half, we are 4-15 (21.1% win rate). That’s pretty drastic.
We’ve lost 8 games where we led at half.
In our 8 wins our average point differentials by half are:
- First Half: +4.63
- Second Half: +1.25
In our 17 losses our average point differentials by half are:
- First Half: -1.18
- Second Half: -10.12
That’s a pretty ugly story to tell. We RARELY win the 2nd half, even in games we win; and our point differential by half decreases on average across all games (wins and losses). We rarely get blown out in the first half.
In fact, the only 1st half we lost by double digits all year is the first Nebraska (-16). We’ve had SEVEN double digit 2nd half losses (-21 vs IAST, -14 @ UC vs OSU, -12 vs Miznoz, -39 vs Iowa!!!!, -10 vs Wisconsin the 1st time, -13 in the MIN loss, and -18 vs Purdue).
What does this all mean? I haven’t the slightest clue.
Is it conditioning (we are gassed in the 2nd half)? Is it X’s and O’s (we make bad halftime adjustments, or at least worse than the other team?). Is it bench depth/quality given our style of play (kind of a corollary to conditioning)? That's all for smarter posters than me to figure out.