Great game. At some point, I was partly watching to make sure no one got injured. Refs sucked in our favor. I have never seen a college team be so intentional about who is going to score before -- it felt like multiple plays where the player who just made a hustle play got a wide open shot. It's a testament to both our offense and how outmatched NW was because we were doing anything we wanted all game. Keaton gets a lot of assists by picking out the right 3-point shooter but I love his passes to the rim. He had a nice dump down to Tomi, a great offensive rebound and quick pass to Tomi for a slam, and that beautiful alley-oop to Z.
Illinois 84, Northwestern 44 Postgame
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Keaton Wagler up to 4th in KenPom’s national player of the year rankings.
Illinois had six more total rebounds than Northwestern had points:
I was there as well. I was so dejected after the loss I sold my tickets to the championship game. I truly believed that team would win it all.
I think it was the shot clock expiring after not resetting from the previous NW possession.
I gave mine away to a customer of mine -- and he was a Michigan grad!
Chris Collins post game presser - class act. Maybe he could mentor Mick C on how to be honest, humble, give credit to the opponent where due and refrain from throwing your players under the bus.
Glad i wasn't close!!! What a game!
Yeah but pretty sure Torvik, unlike Kenpom, disregards, or at least discounts, garbage time in his calculations.
Joel Goodson
- how was I to know, she was with the Russians too?
love this:
not the message, but who it's from
not the message, but who it's from
Joel Goodson
- how was I to know, she was with the Russians too?
not wrong:
Loved the tech he got, getting tough and I loved it.
I'm am savoring every single moment this team is on the floor, and I think we should erect a statue or something to the person responsible for bringing this team together, and especially signing Keaton Wagler to play for Illinois. I have through the years had similar euphoria, but this is probably the pinnacle, no, this is the pinnacle
Retro62
- North Bethesda, Maryland
Under almost any other circumstance, I agree. But the NW player was jawing at him on a couple of previous plays and he was the same one that whacked Andrej for the F1. Also, if you watch the play, Tomi does say something right away, but the NW player jaws right back, which is why Tomi didn't just turn away.
If that is actually him, he has a photo of him in Illinois gear as his main photo.
Normally a quick point to the scoreboard in that situation would do the trick. I don't have an with it in a game that's not close, because it keeps the edge we've played with. I think if it's a closer game, Tomi just moves on.
This team just continues to be tough, aggressive, and smart. It's been a lot of fun watching them progress.
This is incorrect. Kenpom and Torvik both throttle efficiency numbers down once margin of victory reaches a certain amount. Kenpom begins throttling at about 30pts where each subsequent point has much diminished returns, hitting a ceiling at about 40pts. I do not know the exact number for Torvik, but I recall his throttling occurring just a bit after Kenpom. Maybe 32-35pt range?
The metric that doesn't disregard late game margin is NET. While this has not been confirmed as they have never posted the formula, based on how much wilder the swings get for large margin victory games against poor competition, most in the stats community believe efficiency is completely unthrottled in their system.
Maybe I don’t understand exactly, but wouldn’t Oregon (at Illinois) and Maryland (at Maryland), the last two games of the conference play, be considered cupcakes? I posit this based on what I have read here on IL. Both currently have worse records in the conference standings than NW (barely).
Torvik number is not static, but is based on a Bill James formula that determines whether there is any possibility that the losing team comes back to win. I had read somewhere that Kenpom used to throttle the numbers but does not do so anymore. Maybe I'm mistaken. Will have to look for it later.
I think one portion of NET does cap your margin of victory at 10. But the efficiency portion of the input has no bounds.
Yeah, NET no longer double dips for both margin and efficiency. Why they did in the first place, nobody knows. It's also gone through several iterations. There is a theory that they keep their equations secret as they're still adjusting it year to year instead of just iterating data. What I meant to say is exactly what you said, efficiency in NET seems to be completely uncapped, incidentally making blowout wins "weigh more" due to being outliers despite counting the same as every other game.
That would be an interesting and surprising change from Kenpom if so. And I'd question the why unless he found it showed better correlation... Definitely would be a departure from back when I worked with it. It's been a long long time now though, so perhaps.
skyIdub
"I can't tell you. Secret."
Maybe we are morphing into that monster you don't want to play in March. Like Uconn and Houston teams. You just can't match up with us.
Torvik throttles once a team hits the magical "SAFE LEAD REACHED" threshold (basically a point in which a game has a margin large enough that it's never been overcome with that amount of time left).
Last night's *SAFE LEAD REACHED* point was surprisingly not the Keaton half court buzzer beater, but a Jake Davis 3 at the 10 minute mark to make it 68-30. EDIT: Actually Davis missed that 3 and Andrej ended up making a 2 to make it 70-30, but just getting to the 10 minute mark with the 38 point lead was enough to call it.
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