I think there is
a little something to it... That's why I have wanted to find shot selection stats/analysis for (in particular) the game vs NW at home and also for the game last night vs NEB at home. Many, many well-contested shots going in during both of those games for our opponents, meanwhile we have short shots and layups rolling off the rim at a 50 percent rate.
We are, after all, sub-300 in CBB in
luck rating.
It just seemed like we played 20 points better than NEB last night. There were 2 or 3 absolutely terrible NEB possessions where a lucky bounce ended in a made 3. That's in addition to what I thought I viewed last night as far as overall shot selection.
All of that said with the caveat that I strongly agree with your main point, which is that our defense has went in the toilet. I think both things happened last night: (a) our defense again gave up too many easy 2s and also (b) we were on the wrong end of a lot of dice-rolls. I'm happy we still won, but the defense needs something... badly.