Great comparisons. Our 5-game average is 92. Before this, the highest it had been at the end of the regular season in the Underwood era was 91.6 in 2024
Illinois #9 in 3/9 AP Poll
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All great points. I think this is actually why there has been some discouraged views shared lately (I wouldn’t categorize it as all season long). The potential and performance of this team has elevated expectations which is why this recent stretch has created a little angst.
I mean, Werner, Latulip, and Trotter all said it would be a massive disappointment if Illinois doesn't make it out of the first weekend. All 3 said they really expect Illinois to make the Sweet 16 as a bar and should make it to the elite 8...
So I guess people that get paid to do this for a living are just as crazy as some of us fans that also think the season would be a massive disappointment if we don't make the 2nd weekend. If we are a 2 seed- you need to make the Sweet 16 IMO.
That means we are performing over the last 5 like a team with an avg of .92 barthag, or #22 Wisconsin. That 80 really dragging us down
That means we are performing over the last 5 like a team with an avg of .92 barthag, or #22 Wisconsin. That 80 really dragging us down
BARTHAG and Game Score are 2 different things
We’re 6th in the nation in BARTHAG over our last 5… a ginormous fall off from our season-long ranking of 5th
I feel we ought to be ranked ahead of Iowa St. as they have gotten blown out in several games. Our worst two losses were betterquality opponents UConn and Mich
They didn't say the entire season would be a massive disappointment lol
Its two different things to say it would be disappointing to lose in the 1st weekend versus to say the entire season was a massive disappointment
But why didn't you reference the segment where they both said they still think Illinois is a title contender though?
I thought about this and wonder where everyone else is at. Are we satisfied or disappointed with the season at this point?
On the one hand, I think we lost a few games we should have won and didn’t play totally up to our potential. On the other hand, we were ranked, what, 17 at the start of the season? And we ended up considerably higher.
On the one hand, I think we lost a few games we should have won and didn’t play totally up to our potential. On the other hand, we were ranked, what, 17 at the start of the season? And we ended up considerably higher.
Isn’t it the exact same attitude as the football team? Expectations were raised in football to make the playoff. Playoffs weren’t made. Fans disappointed.
I see the Elite 8 = football playoff as far as meeting fan expectations. Anything less will be seen as disappointing. I think less than a Sweet 16 will be seen as a failure. Making the Sweet 16 will be like winning the bowl game. Puts an ok feeling on a pretty good season
While we looked good the first two games into Boswell’s injury I think it was just a bit too much to overcome after that. Especially when we lost Stoyakovic too. Then it took a bit to get them reacclimated to the lineup. For a team with a celebrated bench, we actually have a pretty short rotation. I think all of this just eventually showed up on the court by the end of the season. A couple of developments that would have made a huge difference are Mihaolo turning out to be a more reliable player or Ty Rogers coming back. Either one would have probably won us at least two more games.
Indeed. Wisconsin's season average game score is 81.7.BARTHAG and Game Score are 2 different things
We’re 6th in the nation in BARTHAG over our last 5… a ginormous fall off from our season-long ranking of 5th
Ours is 93.5, so 92 is pretty close to our season average
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Second best season in the past 20 years so far and some of you treat it like a bubble team:
Is this a bad time to bring up Sean Miller?
Game score is the teams Barthag for an individual game at the last time I could find a published explanation. Im sure he has added some logic around the game being decided but am not about to try and replicate his mathBARTHAG and Game Score are 2 different things
We’re 6th in the nation in BARTHAG over our last 5… a ginormous fall off from our season-long ranking of 5th
Adam's WI Sports Blog
Adam Chorlton and Bart Torvik discuss Wisconsin sports, mostly the Badgers.
adamcwisports.blogspot.com
But you can't take an average of game scores to calculate BARTHAG over that set of games. See my other post about Wisconsin's season game score average (82, not 92 as you suggested based on their season BARTHAG)Game score is the teams Barthag for an individual game at the last time I could find a published explanation. Im sure he has added some logic around the game being decided but am not about to try and replicate his math
Adam's WI Sports Blog
Adam Chorlton and Bart Torvik discuss Wisconsin sports, mostly the Badgers.
Game score is the teams Barthag for an individual game at the last time I could find a published explanation. Im sure he has added some logic around the game being decided but am not about to try and replicate his math
Adam's WI Sports Blog
Adam Chorlton and Bart Torvik discuss Wisconsin sports, mostly the Badgers.
T-Rank BARTHAG is derived from GameScore in that it measures your average GameScore in some way against the “average” team. I’m not sure on the actual algorithm/equation (and I’m unsure it’s published?). For instance, over the last 5 games we have an average game score of 92 but a BARTHAG of .9621
Living in NE, I will tell you the people around me will absolutely see it as a failure. This is their year to get off schnide.
I think the problem is here is that two things can be true at once. They can have loved this season and they rightly should, but they can also be disappointed if they have their highest seed since the Danny Nee era and get dumped without winning a tourney game.
And for us, I expect to finish top four as a baseline, so this season was good. Winning the B1G would have made it great. Winning the BTT would add a cherry on top of a good season. That said, I will be disappointed if we fail to make the second weekend. If we play to seed we will be fine, but Brad's tourney resume hasn't been stellar. Granted, I put stock into two metrics...tourney success and a B1G regular season title, so my outlook is probably different than others.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
No, we don’t. We support the team and realize this has been a great regular season in the big picture. We also feel we might be playing a little worse now than a month ago, and that’s not ideal timing since it’s win or go home now. Fans have every right to reasonably feel that way!!
We’ll all be ready and high on hope again on Friday.
I remember the john groce days....
Sure but how many other teams are "playing as well" as we were then? Since that loss we've dropped 3 games. In that same time span:
Iowa St. has lost 4 times.
Kansas has lost 4 times.
Houston has lost 3 times.
UConn has lost to Creighton and Marquette.
Nebraska has lost 3 times including a 20 point loss to UCLA and a loss at home to Iowa.
MSU lost twice, one of which was a 21 point loss to Wisconsin (they also lost to Minnesot right before they beat us).
UVA lost to a bad FSU team and lost by 26 to Duke, and scraped and Wake Forest and VT teams.
Gonzaga has played nobody and still found ways to drop games.
Purdue has lost 4 times, 3 of them at home.
Texas Tech just lost their last 2 games, and 3 games totals since our MSU loss, none of them vs a ranked opponent.
So really, applying the standard you're putting on Illinois, is anyone outside of the 4 likely 1-seeds actually "playing well" since early February?
The fact is there are exactly 4 teams that are hot right now, and Florida hasn't really been tested and AZ has looked vulnerable at times. At least 4 teams outside that top 4, i.e. teams that haven't been playing nearly as well as we were during that winning streak, are going to make the Elite Eight and at least 12 such teams are going to make the Sweet 16.
No one is suggesting averaging the scores is a valid measure. I'm glad you've come around
That part of his methodology is just the Bill James Pythagorean Expectation like below, but with an exponent of 11.5 and using AdjO & AdjD:
As you get closer to 100%, it gets very non-linear: AdjO/D of 120/100 gives 89%, 130/100 gives 95%, 140/100 gives 98%, 150/100 gives 99%.
The correct way to compute your rating for a set of games is to average your AdjO & D first, then apply the above. If you average your game scores, you de-emphasize your best games, since you only get a small boost for extreme scoring margins.
chrisRunner7
- San Diego
This season has been tremendous and highly entertaining, and I know I'm going to look back on the season the same way I look back on memories from the Ayo year with the #1 seed, even though that season ended too soon. The Wagler Game and pretty much everything about Keaton Wagler post-UConn. David Mirkovic being both awesome and kind of crazy at times. Jake Davis playing his way into being a starter. Playing two 7-foot twins from Croatia for significant minutes.
We are 24-7 (15-5), ranked #9 and a 2 or 3 seed pending how this shakes out... I have no complaints and I'm psyched for the tournament. I also know I will be disappointed when we lose (because I always am!) but that's basketball, and transfer portal news will take over in due time. Two seeds have about a 20% chance historically to get to the Final Four, and that's not even considering how dominant the 1-seeds have looked this year. And regardless, I will continue to ignore the dummies who call into local radio saying we need to fire Underwood and hire Billy Donovan or Dan Hurley (a real call from a week or two ago). There's a chunk of folks in our fanbase, and probably in most fanbases, who are not realistic when it comes to what they are demanding from their team.
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