Illinois at Duke, Tuesday, November 17th, 6:00pm CT, ESPN
re: lately, how strong of an indicator do you think 2 games would be?
illinois was 7.5 pts worse than the spread vs tech
duke was 12.5 pts worse than the spread vs msu
Illinois was favored by 2.5 over TT but lost by 6 (8 if you ignore the uncontested dunk as time expired), so that's 8.5-10.5pts worse. Then we were 35.5pt favorites and won by 22 against SHSU, or 13.5pts worse.
You're right about Duke/MSU, but then Duke was 10.5 better than the spread vs SIUE.
To answer your question, I think betting lines have already taken these games into account. The point is that 13pts worse than the spread isn't crazy and just happened, so it's pretty understandable that fans are bracing themselves for that and don't need to be called out for it.
Many of the preseason predictions were that far out on the other tail of the probability distribution (almost none were in the pessimistic half of the distribution). The pendulum of emotions swings both ways in the ups and downs. It's what fans do.
Conversely, do you feel 13 points better than the spread would be crazy considering both team’s performances versus most relevant competition?
I was seeing a few folks reference the 43 point spread two years ago at MSG. Is that also a reasonable prediction in your opinion?
I can see anything ranging from a close Illinois win (low chance 25-30% or less) to a 20 point Duke win (also on the lower end of odds).
Either bet, 13 points in each direction, would come in at around +500 odds. Something to consider when gauging how likely those outcomes are to occur.
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I don't think fan predictions are embarrassing either way. +/- 13 points probably covers around 80% of the distribution, so even somewhat beyond that isn't wild, but 43 would be quite an outlier.
Sometimes I think the harshness towards any negativity is a bit over the top since it's not like we've won a championship lately and/or established ourselves consistently in the top tier.
Really? Extremely unlikely? To me that sounds like what, 1% chance? Less than 5%?
Torvik gives us a 26% chance. Are we underdogs? Yes, of course. But things with those kinds of odds happen every day.
I am unsure that the lack of a national championship in the last [however long you say 'lately' is] supports general fan negativity where we say Illinois will lose by 20 points in a game where the spread is 7. I also am unsure how we haven't established ourselves in the top tier with an E8 and F4 in 2 of the past 3 seasons.
Unless you just mean top tier as in joining a two-man race of UConn and Duke, in which it reads like your opinion is that general fan negativity is completely warranted if you are not in that tier with those two teams.
Think the harshness goes both ways. Lot of people were saying we can hang with Duke. That opinion is in line with the betting odds. Lot of fans saying those people are nuts because we're going to get hammered by [X] points.
Edit: I realize I'm also just kind of a weird guy because I tend to be really optimistic about most things (not only basketball). So supporting negativity in general is maybe just not my style.
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Theres historical program (unc, kansas, ucla) succes but the top tier now is probably duke, uconn, Florida over the last couple decades. Then you have the 2nd tier with championship success but a bit more erratic like unc, Kansas, msu, etc. We are in the tier behind that with Zona, purdue, etc. Hang out in the 3rd tier long enough will get you that championship to move up.
Really? In the last 3 years we made an Elite Eight and a Final Four. In the last 5 years we've won 3 Conference championships (2 BTT, 1 Reg Season).
Some of you all were calling for BU to be fired last season, and already the hysterics have begun again just 7 months after that F4 run. I wonder sometimes how long a national championship would keep that portion of the board happy. I'm pretty sure you'd measure the length of time in weeks or months, certainly not in years.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Generally speaking, the higher the expectations, the more angry the fan base. Ohio St is an infinitely more angry football fan base than Illinois football fans.
So yeah, the second a national championship is won, the expectations immediately increase and a portion of the fan base becomes more miserable the following year.
Lots of teams are going to look bad against MSU.
I’ll break from the trend and say what I say every year. I’m not convinced with MSU. I think Izzo gets a lot of hype, but as far as talent is concerned, I just don’t think MSU has as high of a ceiling. Great floor, sure, but however much whining they can do to flip a loss into a win is how high their ceiling is.
I think they got hot on offense and had their best night against a Duke team that had their worst night. Like the Cooper Flagg Duke team that lost to Kentucky and Clemson
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The passing of stojakovic is one of the overlooked positives from this season so far.
He had 34 assists ALL YEAR in 25-26
He has 16 through four games this year. And he seems to be much better in passing out of collapses (but still forces sometime) even if it doesnt lead to a shot
Enuf w the negative waves.
Cues the Hulk "It's Clobberin time!!"
Lets Go Illini !!
Cues the Hulk "It's Clobberin time!!"
Lets Go Illini !!
Ummm… actually “It’s Clobberin’ Time!” Is the catch phrase for Ben Grimm, aka The Thing
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