I'll grant the following: Maryland looks bad. Very bad. It's 17th in the BT (only because MSU has played one more game and has one more loss.) It lost to Rutgers at home. And it scored only a FG v. UCLA while giving up 54 points at home, 14 of those on two pick-sixes within three minutes of each other in the 3Q, one of which (IIRC) Malik Washington threw directly at two UCLA DBs.
However.
It has looked not bad at various points this season v. P5 competition, including an entire first half in Lincoln and an entire second half at home v. Virginia Tech. Full game v. such competition looking not bad? No. Got me there.
I watched them lose in person to VT in mid-Sept, 35-26 (it should have been 28 but for Locks' inexplicable, James Franklin-esque, decision to go for two when they narrowed the score to 35-20 at the beginning of the 4Q.) The material difference in that game was Washington's inability to hit his receivers long. He missed at least two wide open WRs in the end zone, on drives that subsequently stalled. Hit those two easy passes and MD wins that one, against a VT team that is decidedly on the high side of average (mid-50s in Sagarin until moving up to the 40s after beating Clemson on the road Saturday night.)
Washington absolutely gashed VT's porous D (sound familiar?) on short slants and outs, as well as a couple long ones he did hit, for 360 yards (would have been well over 400 had he hit those two TD passes), and MD mixed in a decent running game that at times made VT look like defenseless babies (Fletch, anyone?). They couldn't finish drives early, however (see missed TD passes). Chris Durr Jr. is an excellent receiver and the remainder of the WR corps, Kaleb Webb and Na'eem Gladding, are solid, too. Malik can run as well as pass. Their backs are OK.
The MD defense is, obviously, not good (I mean, it gave up 38 pts to Rutgers at home) and the team has not played two competent halves other than v. Hampton and UConn. I take nothing for granted in this one, however.
Add in the fact that Locks fired his DC after the Rutgers face-plant, and then he was fired within 48 hours. Then his co-DC (in waiting?) who wasn't fired moved up to HC. So MD has two brand new coaches, of the three main ones, this Saturday, though both have been on the sidelines all season. Will the Terps players display some sense of shame, or liberation, and man up in the wake of the implosion of their coaching staff? I won't bet against it. For four full quarters? I wince in indecision there; my gut tells me no.
TL; DR: This is a completely losable game for the Illini unless the Clayton/Boyd O move the ball competently and our D shows up for 4Q. Or maybe 3Q and change. So let's do both.