Illinois Basketball 2016-2017

lstewart53x3 · Mar 6, 2016

Obelix said:
I do not think anyone disagrees that getting better player will improve the team. That is profound. But the example that you give as supporting evidence is a really poor one. That is an example of extreme addition of talent, with 3 McD AAs, 5* players, two of them with their jersey's hanging from the rafters, could have been all three if not for Marcus' injury.

The situation that we are facing is really much different. Nowhere close to these additions next year. If we were adding 3 McD AAs, sure, I agree that coaching does not matter as much. And I have stated over and over again that IMO talent has more impact. But is the talent we have coming in next year enough? I do not disagree with your point, just the supporting example. You have Kruger w/3 McD AAs vs. Groce w/some additions but nowhere in the same level. Kruger is definitely a very good coach as well, not just anyone who would not have a very positive coaching impact.

Dude. I think you're arguing just to argue.

My initial comment was in a response to a comment about whether it would be better to hire an assistant who's a recruiter or an X's & O's kind of guy.

My point was that it would be better to go with a recruiter because recruiting is most valuable.

89illinigrad · Mar 6, 2016

lstewart53x3 said:
In 1998, Lon Krueger went 13-3 in the B1G. The very next year, he went 3-13. Same coach. Different players.

I have a feeling JG's coaching will look miraculously better when we have better players.

Although it probably was not his intention, lstewart's post points out another important factor for having a successful team, EXPERIENCE.

That 1997-98 team had no McD's AA, but started 5 seniors, including walkon Brian Johnson (Lucas' brother). They also had all played one year under Kruger, so they knew his system. That team finished ranked #22.

Then, after the down year in 1998-99, the Illini added 3 McD's AA, including HRF at the point, and yet with all that talent they "only" finished 22-10 and 11-5 in the BIG, with a ranking of #21.

So, a senior laden team with only 2 top 100 recruits finished at the same level (or better, as they won the BIG and the 1999-2000 team did not) as a team with 3 McD's AA on it. All with the same coach.

It wasn't until the 2000-01 that everything came together for that team and they vaulted to the top of the BIG and top 5 in the country.

So, in summary, you need talent AND experience to be successful. Illinois has some talented players this year, but half of them are frosh and lack experience. With a year of experience and the additions of the talented and experienced Abrams, Black and possibly Kipper, this team should be pretty good next year.

89illinigrad · Mar 6, 2016

89illinigrad said:
Although it probably was not his intention, lstewart's post points out another important factor for having a successful team, EXPERIENCE.

That 1997-98 team had no McD's AA, but started 5 seniors, including walkon Brian Johnson (Lucas' brother). They also had all played one year under Kruger, so they knew his system. That team finished ranked #22.

Then, after the down year in 1998-99, the Illini added 3 McD's AA, including HRF at the point, and yet with all that talent they "only" finished 22-10 and 11-5 in the BIG, with a ranking of #21.

So, a senior laden team with only 2 top 100 recruits finished at the same level (or better, as they won the BIG and the 1999-2000 team did not) as a team with 3 McD's AA on it. All with the same coach.

It wasn't until the 2000-01 that everything came together for that team and they vaulted to the top of the BIG and top 5 in the country.

So, in summary, you need talent AND experience to be successful. Illinois has some talented players this year, but half of them are frosh and lack experience. With a year of experience and the additions of the talented and experienced Abrams, Black and possibly Kipper, this team should be pretty good next year.

Meant to say Abrams, Black and possibly Thorne.

TCTORNADO · Mar 7, 2016

Does anybody know the rotation of B1G teams in and out of next year's schedule??

brokensaphire · Mar 7, 2016

I dare to peer into the future and I see.......

that the basketball gods look favorably upon us in 2016-17:

Thorne is granted a 6th year. Abrams is healthy and both are laying everything down on the court desperate to improve their professional stock. Leron finds the Lord and is ultimately forgiven.

5. Thorne (12pt, 6rb/gm), Maverick (6pt, 4rb/gm)
4. Black (6pt, 8rb/gm), Finke (6pt, 2rb/gm)
3. Hill (21pt, 3rb/gm), Nichols, DJW
2. Nunn (9pt/gm) JCL (7pt/gm) AJ
1. Abrams (16pt, 8ast, 3st/gm) Tate, TJL

80pts/gm, rebounding improved, Abrams stabilizes defense at the top with another year of experience and maturity on the bigs behind him. 20wins, NCAA birth, top 10 recruiting class and Coach Groce's seat assumes room temperature

OR

Debri from a Niburu planet approaches the Earth, decreases to the size of a cantaloupe as it fights its way through our atmosphere and hits the SFC during the pregame walkthrough on opening night.

Love my Illini

t7nich · Mar 7, 2016

i like it, brokensaphire. Give Nichols a couple points and a handful of rebounds, and tjl roughly 8 points, then we're good.

Poe's Law · Mar 7, 2016

I admire your optimism. I'm going to keep reading your posts until it wears off.

CAHALL15 · Mar 7, 2016

brokensaphire said:
that the basketball gods look favorably upon us in 2016-17:

Thorne is granted a 6th year. Abrams is healthy and both are laying everything down on the court desperate to improve their professional stock. Leron finds the Lord and is ultimately forgiven.

5. Thorne (12pt, 6rb/gm), Maverick (6pt, 4rb/gm)
4. Black (6pt, 8rb/gm), Finke (6pt, 2rb/gm)
3. Hill (21pt, 3rb/gm), Nichols, DJW
2. Nunn (9pt/gm) JCL (7pt/gm) AJ
1. Abrams (16pt, 8ast, 3st/gm) Tate, TJL

80pts/gm, rebounding improved, Abrams stabilizes defense at the top with another year of experience and maturity on the bigs behind him. 20wins, NCAA birth, top 10 recruiting class and Coach Groce's seat assumes room temperature

OR

Debri from a Niburu planet approaches the Earth, decreases to the size of a cantaloupe as it fights its way through our atmosphere and hits the SFC during the pregame walkthrough on opening night.

Love my Illini

I have done some dreaming too, however, you think that Tracy, after not playing for two years will beat his best season scoring average by 6 points and Nunn will no longer average double digits after doing so for two straight years? Your numbers also mean JCL will actually regress.

rtbritt · Mar 8, 2016

brokensaphire said:
that the basketball gods look favorably upon us in 2016-17:

Thorne is granted a 6th year. Abrams is healthy and both are laying everything down on the court desperate to improve their professional stock. Leron finds the Lord and is ultimately forgiven.

5. Thorne (12pt, 6rb/gm), Maverick (6pt, 4rb/gm)
4. Black (6pt, 8rb/gm), Finke (6pt, 2rb/gm)
3. Hill (21pt, 3rb/gm), Nichols, DJW
2. Nunn (9pt/gm) JCL (7pt/gm) AJ
1. Abrams (16pt, 8ast, 3st/gm) Tate, TJL

80pts/gm, rebounding improved, Abrams stabilizes defense at the top with another year of experience and maturity on the bigs behind him. 20wins, NCAA birth, top 10 recruiting class and Coach Groce's seat assumes room temperature

OR

Debri from a Niburu planet approaches the Earth, decreases to the size of a cantaloupe as it fights its way through our atmosphere and hits the SFC during the pregame walkthrough on opening night.

Love my Illini

CAHALL15 said:
I have done some dreaming too, however, you think that Tracy, after not playing for two years will beat his best season scoring average by 6 points and Nunn will no longer average double digits after doing so for two straight years? Your numbers also mean JCL will actually regress.

wIn said:
Also, Tracy will be one of the leading assist-men in the country for some reason

Yeah, I am curious as to why you chose a few of these numbers. What leads you to believe Black will get 8 boards a game? Tracy 8 assists? Why would Nunn drop from like 15 or 16 to 9 points a game? JCL will regress to only 7?

I personally doubt Hill will get 21 pts/gm. Probably similar to what he has now, but a good chance he goes down, due to health of team and points being more evenly distributed. Also, I figure he'll get more than 3 rbs a game.

Complete shot in the dark guesses......Abrams 6 pts, 3 assists. Nunn 11 pts. Hill 16 pts, 5 rbs. JCL 11 pts. Black 6 pts, 4 rbs. Thorne 9 pts, 6 rbs. Finke 8 pts, 4 rbs. Mav 6 pts, 4 rbs. Lucas 5 pts, 3 assists.

Huge question mark whether Black or Thorne will be here. If either or both are gone, Finke and Mav's production go way up.

EDIT: This is why I shouldn't project. Even I know this is way too deep and not all these players are going to be this productive. I even tried to be conservative!

RedRocksIllini · Mar 8, 2016

brokensaphire said:
that the basketball gods look favorably upon us in 2016-17:

Thorne is granted a 6th year. Abrams is healthy and both are laying everything down on the court desperate to improve their professional stock. Leron finds the Lord and is ultimately forgiven.

5. Thorne (12pt, 6rb/gm), Maverick (6pt, 4rb/gm)
4. Black (6pt, 8rb/gm), Finke (6pt, 2rb/gm)
3. Hill (21pt, 3rb/gm), Nichols, DJW
2. Nunn (9pt/gm) JCL (7pt/gm) AJ
1. Abrams (16pt, 8ast, 3st/gm) Tate, TJL

80pts/gm, rebounding improved, Abrams stabilizes defense at the top with another year of experience and maturity on the bigs behind him. 20wins, NCAA birth, top 10 recruiting class and Coach Groce's seat assumes room temperature

OR

Debri from a Niburu planet approaches the Earth, decreases to the size of a cantaloupe as it fights its way through our atmosphere and hits the SFC during the pregame walkthrough on opening night.

Love my Illini

Tracy with 8 assists (assuming you mean per game, not for the season?)??
If I was betting with my own money, I'd have to bet on your second scenario. But since I don't bet, I'll choose to go with your first and be optimistic.

Combo · Mar 8, 2016

brokensaphire said:
that the basketball gods look favorably upon us in 2016-17:

Thorne is granted a 6th year. Abrams is healthy and both are laying everything down on the court desperate to improve their professional stock. Leron finds the Lord and is ultimately forgiven.

5. Thorne (12pt, 6rb/gm), Maverick (6pt, 4rb/gm)
4. Black (6pt, 8rb/gm), Finke (6pt, 2rb/gm)
3. Hill (21pt, 3rb/gm), Nichols, DJW
2. Nunn (9pt/gm) JCL (7pt/gm) AJ
1. Abrams (16pt, 8ast, 3st/gm) Tate, TJL

80pts/gm, rebounding improved, Abrams stabilizes defense at the top with another year of experience and maturity on the bigs behind him. 20wins, NCAA birth, top 10 recruiting class and Coach Groce's seat assumes room temperature

OR

Debri from a Niburu planet approaches the Earth, decreases to the size of a cantaloupe as it fights its way through our atmosphere and hits the SFC during the pregame walkthrough on opening night.

Love my Illini

The Thorne and Tracy scenarios are quite unlikely. I don't think Thorne will be granted a 6th year (I didn't even think he'd be granted one before he tried to come back later in the season). And I can't imagine Tracy contributing much after two serious injuries and two years of not playing.

brokensaphire · Mar 8, 2016

LOL

Wow. A fan tries to have a little over-the-top optimism and shine some silly funshine on your dark faces and.......lighten up, Francis.
In all seriousness, boys and girls, next year's team will be better because they can't do any worse. Cheers

ChiefIllini · Mar 8, 2016

brokensaphire said:
Wow. A fan tries to have a little over-the-top optimism and shine some silly funshine on your dark faces and.......lighten up, Francis.
In all seriousness, boys and girls, next year's team will be better because they can't do any worse. Cheers

#justIlliniThings

But yeah I agree completely, I think as marred as our front court is, adding TA & TJL at some capacity, will give our team another couple wins. I think watching the PSU game it's easy to see what a PG can do for this team when they can drive and dish AND run an offense (like we saw Lewis do for ~5 mins). He seriously changed the game from a 10 pt regulation loss to a game we had multiple chances of winning. Of course it doesn't hurt to have Hill hit something like 10/13 in regulation but still aggression and intelligence will win you more games then not.

haasi · Mar 9, 2016

all the football developments are very exciting. love the resources that whitman is marshaling for the program. makes me wonder what he has in store for basketball in the short term, if anything. recognizing that we're (a) already engaged in a very expensive assembly hall renovation; (b) not hiring a fully new staff; and (c) already spending a lot on football - maybe he doesn't pour a bunch of money into the program in any sort of immediate fashion.

but if he did, where could we benefit in the immediate term and what kinds of things might he choose to allocate funds towards - a big time new assistant this offesason? (would have to be able to coexist happily with groce.) perks in the style of kentucky (like full time chef for players) to help us with recruiting high end players?

any thoughts?

Obelix · Mar 9, 2016

haasi said:
all the football developments are very exciting. love the resources that whitman is marshaling for the program. makes me wonder what he has in store for basketball in the short term, if anything. recognizing that we're (a) already engaged in a very expensive assembly hall renovation; (b) not hiring a fully new staff; and (c) already spending a lot on football - maybe he doesn't pour a bunch of money into the program in any sort of immediate fashion.

but if he did, where could we benefit in the immediate term and what kinds of things might he choose to allocate funds towards - a big time new assistant this offesason? (would have to be able to coexist happily with groce.) perks in the style of kentucky (like full time chef for players) to help us with recruiting high end players?

any thoughts?

#WeWillSpend

Magoo222 · Mar 9, 2016

Loved todays game.....even though it was only Minny, its still fun to see a big win. Got me thinking where our offensive production has come from this year. Seems like it would be in this order.
1 Hill
2 Nunn
3 Coleman Lands
4 Finke
5 Morgan (who'd have thought)
6 Lewis
7 Williams

Magoo222 · Mar 9, 2016

8 Jordan
9 Austin
10 Tate
11 Liss

Of course, Thorne and Black are in the middle, because of time missed. Does anyone have the numbers to see how far I'm off ?

TCTORNADO · Mar 9, 2016

haasi said:
all the football developments are very exciting. love the resources that whitman is marshaling for the program. makes me wonder what he has in store for basketball in the short term, if anything. recognizing that we're (a) already engaged in a very expensive assembly hall renovation; (b) not hiring a fully new staff; and (c) already spending a lot on football - maybe he doesn't pour a bunch of money into the program in any sort of immediate fashion.

but if he did, where could we benefit in the immediate term and what kinds of things might he choose to allocate funds towards - a big time new assistant this offesason? (would have to be able to coexist happily with groce.) perks in the style of kentucky (like full time chef for players) to help us with recruiting high end players?

any thoughts?

Lasagne dinners every Thursday night.

Gomers Pile · Mar 10, 2016

TCTORNADO said:
Lasagne dinners every Thursday night.

With free beer on game nights..... scratch that....every night.

wIn · Mar 10, 2016

Magoo222 said:
8 Jordan
9 Austin
10 Tate
11 Liss

Of course, Thorne and Black are in the middle, because of time missed. Does anyone have the numbers to see how far I'm off ?

A little bit ago I did an analysis of the season from the UI play-by-play data with all games through the Maryland game. This is not strictly offense, but measures all positive plays (block, steal, assist, field goal, free throw, rebound) with the score margin within 10pts.

Cubby Blue · Mar 10, 2016

wIn said:
A little bit ago I did an analysis of the season from the UI play-by-play data with all games through the Maryland game. This is not strictly offense, but measures all positive plays (block, steal, assist, field goal, free throw, rebound) with the score margin within 10pts.

That looks about right to me. pretty chart by the way. I am assuming if you did this at mid season, Mav would have been down in the lower ranges and Finke might have been a little higher.

Golfer63 · Mar 10, 2016

Three bold predictions:

1. John Groce is the right man for the Illinois basketball job.

2. Assuming everybody including injured players come back healthy next year, Illinois WILL receive a double bye in the 2017 B1G tournament.

3. By 2026, the JFG led Illinois basketball program will have a National Championship banner hung in SFC.

CoalCity · Mar 10, 2016

Golfer63 said:
Three bold predictions:

1. John Groce is the right man for the Illinois basketball job.

2. Assuming everybody including injured players come back healthy next year, Illinois WILL receive a double bye in the 2017 B1G tournament.

3. By 2026, the JFG led Illinois basketball program will have a National Championship banner hung in SFC.

#1, #2...OK I'll drink the Koolade on those but...

#3. I'll take a pound of whatever it is you got...

:thumb:

jrichisamazing · Mar 10, 2016

I'm really excited to see what Mav can do next season. You can tell, as the season goes on, that he understands he can be the difference between a win and loss. This is probably his first offseason where he's thinking he's the guy the team will depend on every game. Sometimes when you have that mindset, you work even harder to prepare for the season. Plus, this will be Fletcher's first offseason with the team as well and he seems like a great hire.

Newman · Mar 10, 2016

jrichisamazing said:
I'm really excited to see what Mav can do next season. You can tell, as the season goes on, that he understands he can be the difference between a win and loss. This is probably his first offseason where he's thinking he's the guy the team will depend on every game. Sometimes when you have that mindset, you work even harder to prepare for the season. Plus, this will be Fletcher's first offseason with the team as well and he seems like a great hire.

Completely agree. It's nice seeing the lightbulb finally turn on in some players. Mav has turned into the classic big that didn't have things start clicking until junior year. Mav knew that he was behind Thorne and wasn't the go to guy in the post so he definitely didn't have the mentality necessary early on but it's there now.