All of that, plus offense...
Illinois Basketball 2016-2017
- Status
All of that, plus offense...
Problem with adding up points is that we fans almost always overestimate the totals.
What do you see for averages for Morgan, Finke, Lucas, Williams, Jordan, Nichols, Tate, Austin?
Add it to 55 and see what you come up with. Morgan and Finke were at 7-8 ppg apiece last year, for example.
Pretty good odds of both of these happening. The freshmen will get stronger and smarter. Nichols already looks like a man amongst boys. We know Black and Thorne are good rebounders. And Thorne coming back allows Finke and Hill to play their natural positions. Plus, you can't get much worse than last season.
TA/TJL 8
JCL 11
MH 14
MF/LB 11
MT/MM 11
DJW/AJ/KN 3
I think this is a conservative/realistic breakdown of what could be over the course of the season.
It seems easier to group some players together, because we know Finke, Black, Morgan, and Thorne could each score 8-12 points a game if each could play 30 minutes a game, but that isn't happening.
Realistically, we will only go 8 deep most likely with regulars. So DJW/AJ/Kipper will all probably "average" more points a game collectively, but they probably won't all play in every game (them or someone else..)
I was being conservative trying to get down to the 55 points that you threw out. I think if you add mine up, it is 58. Close.
I think Hill will probably get closer to 16 and JCL 12-14, but I was trying to make it work!
The 55 points I was talking about was how many the poster had from his starters. We will likely average around 70 or so. I was talking about adding the reserves' averages to that.
So, if 10 players play in every game, the points add up quickly. Let's say:
Hill 18
JCL 12
Thorne 10
Black 8
Abrams 6
Finke 6
Morgan 5
Lucas 3
Jordan 3
Williams 2
Others 3
I tried to be conservative but that still totals 73 among the rotation players not adding any from the deep reserves, so I probably overestimated. Hard not to.
So, if 10 players play in every game, the points add up quickly. Let's say:
Hill 18
JCL 12
Thorne 10
Black 8
Abrams 6
Finke 6
Morgan 5
Lucas 3
Jordan 3
Williams 2
Others 3
I tried to be conservative but that still totals 73 among the rotation players not adding any from the deep reserves, so I probably overestimated. Hard not to.
TA/TJL 8
JCL 11
MH 14
MF/LB 11
MT/MM 11
DJW/AJ/KN 3
I think this is a conservative/realistic breakdown of what could be over the course of the season.
It seems easier to group some players together, because we know Finke, Black, Morgan, and Thorne could each score 8-12 points a game if each could play 30 minutes a game, but that isn't happening.
Realistically, we will only go 8 deep most likely with regulars. So DJW/AJ/Kipper will all probably "average" more points a game collectively, but they probably won't all play in every game (them or someone else..)
I was being conservative trying to get down to the 55 points that you threw out. I think if you add mine up, it is 58. Close.
I think Hill will probably get closer to 16 and JCL 12-14, but I was trying to make it work!
We'd be last in the conference if we had a 10-11 man rotation and only averaged 58 points.
I'll take a swing at it though:
MH- 15
JCL- 11
Abrams-8
Thorne-8
Black- 6
Finke- 6
Lucas/Tate- 5
Morgan-5
DJW/AJ/Kipper-6
KN-? If he's back, 12 ppg but takes away a couple from DJW/AJ, a couple from Lucas/ Tate, and one or two from JCL and Hill each.
Last edited:
Redbirds33333
- Chicago, IL
Always fun to give it a shot:
Hill - 16 (17 without KN)
JCL - 12 (14 without KN)
Thorne - 9 (10 without KN)
KN - 10
Abrams - 5 (6 without kn)
Black - 4
Finke - 5
Lucas/Tate - 5
Morgan - 6
Djw/Jordan/kipper - 7 (9 without KN)
Redbirds33333
- Chicago, IL
Basically view us as 3 points less ppg without him. Who knows.
Dan
Admin
Illinois will host NC State in next season's ACC/Big Ten Challenge, sources told @CBSSports.
https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/734882100961267712
https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/734882100961267712
Don't know much about NC State next season, but I'm glad it's a home game.
No Cat Barber or Martin twins.
OrangeBlazer
- Atlanta
http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/nc-state/article78615282.html
More on NC state. Should be a good game.
More on NC state. Should be a good game.
80 would lead the league in scoring. When was the last time we averaged 80? Without looking, it's been years. Not even the Dee/Deron teams averaged 80.
1994. We've hit 77 PPG a few times in between. I don't think this team will have any trouble scoring, but I don't expect a powerhouse. Probably in the low 70s.
Indiana averaged 82.3. 80 might lead the league this year but it certainly wouldn't be a sure thing.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I would hope that we could be closer to 75 ppg at least this year. The MASH unit from last year averaged 72.1, so I'm hoping that they can add 2-3 ppg.
Our ppg doesn't need to improve significantly, but our points allowed per game certainly does. Having Black, Thorne, and improved Finke and Mav should help quite a bit. We need our backcourt players to improve their defense because we're still lacking a shot blocker, but players like JCL improved a ton towards the end and should be able to keep their guys in front of them so that we don't need to rely on a player in the post to clean things up. We'll see how Abrams does. His scoring, although it wasn't terribly efficient, should help as well, but his defense and leadership were his biggest assets. If we can have him exhibit at least one of those traits, we could be in pretty good shape.
The team has a pretty high ceiling on offense, but there are still question marks about the defense. If the latter is anything like like Groce's first couple of years, there could be great things accomplished. Hopefully last year's defense will be seen as an outlier.
The team has a pretty high ceiling on offense, but there are still question marks about the defense. If the latter is anything like like Groce's first couple of years, there could be great things accomplished. Hopefully last year's defense will be seen as an outlier.
89illinigrad
- Chicago
I would think that, with the shorter shot clock, scoring averages are up, so its hard to compare to prior teams. I was actually a bit surprised that we averaged 72 ppg last year, so 80 ppg is not out of the question. However, we need to give up fewer than the 74 ppg we allowed last year if we are to be successful.
Could be. I'm not really too worried about the offense. The more exciting part to me is on defense, where we should be much, much better. Getting Thorne and Black back means rebounding should not be an issue and teams will get far fewer second chance opportunities. And even though Thorne's not a great defender or shot blocker, just having his size in the middle will be a deterrent to players trying to drive the lane. Having Abrams back along with all the frosh who are now sophs will mean the perimeter defense will be better as well. So that number should drop from 74 ppg to something in the 60s.
Feel free to file this under "too soon": but i wonder if someone else will wear 25 next season (JT or DJW)?
VCU will play Illinois in a neutral site game at American Airlines Arena in Miami on December 3. According to Rothstein tweet.
- Status