Big thing for me is PG play and on that I'm worried. If somehow, someway, we get competent PG play from one or more of Abrams, Tate, or Lucas, I think we make the tourney (in fact fairly easily). Of course assumes no crazy string of injuries to the rest of the lineup like last year.
The thing is none of those three IMO are likely to give us competent PG play. Abrams - two serious injuries and hasn't played in two years.
Tate - opponents don't have to guard him making it four against five. Very poor defender.
Lucas - lightly touted FR still recovering from injury.
Honestly I think Lucas might be the most likely, and that's not saying much!
If none of those options pan out then Hill can provide competent PG play.