I'm not disagreeing with you that we have a ways to go with recruiting. But I don't agree that we are in awful shape coming into the conference season.
I also don't agree that all of the teams you mentioned are getting better. Minnesota has been a solid team this decade. They had 11 wins this past year, which I believe is an anomaly (they had a weak schedule and many were predicting them to be big west winners). If Fleck does something similar this year, then I will gladly admit that I am wrong. I would wager that Minnesota regresses to the mean this season.
Nebraska has always recruited way better than us, once I see Nebraska start to win games, I will start to buy an argument that Nebraska's better recruiting actually matters.
Wisconsin has benefited from a weak Big West. Last year, they seemed to be really good, until they almost lost to an injured northwestern team, then lost to a mediocre Illinois team. They are solid, but I don't think they are improving.
I will not argue the point that Indiana is improving. What that means for us is yet to be determined.
We are not great at recruiting, I can cede that argument. But how that translates to wins is unknown. Overall, we are a better team today than we were when Lovie got here and there is reason to be optimistic. The two deep is better this year than it was last year. The following year, the top spot at most positions will be better than it has been. We will be light on depth, but we will have a team that can be competitive with any Big Ten Team. If we have a decent recruiting year this upcoming year, then our future will be as bright as it has been through most of Illinois recent history.
The difference between what I see and what it seems to me that you see is that I think we have things to improve (mostly HS recruiting), but I don't think that means we will lose. Our team talent composite is comparable to most of the teams in the west, if not better. If Lovie can't coach wins, then we will know in the next few years. But we will qualify for a bowl this year and then I will say we will qualify in 2021. Lets see how recruiting does through that period.