Illinois Football Recruiting Thread

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#126      
If we want to improve from #25 in SP+, we have to improve on #64 in talent. The most obvious difference between us and the next tier isn't coaching, or what we do with the talent we have, it's the quality and level of talent on the roster.

No idea what the net impact of our current in/out talent level is, but I'm pretty confident as it stands now we aren't making a clear and obvious jump to that next tier of talent. Doesn't mean we haven't identified the right talent to do so, just that we haven't had a "no-doubt we are executing with the top tier" level of talent.

Sure feels like a lot of people are dismissing that 10 of the 12 teams in the CFP this year received a top 25 Team Transfer ranking last season, though.

Both things can be true a) Bret has earned our trust and b) we aren't clearly and obviously blowing the doors off this portal season.
The highest ranked recruiting class we’ve had in almost 20 years might help.
 
#129      
I now understand why the American education system is doing so poorly. lol. Who is teaching these kids stats nowadays?

All 10 playoff teams last season were in the top 25 of the portal rankings. We sit at like 40 or 50 depending on the site. Simply not good enough right now. I’m sure we’ll add bodies. But it’s not about adding bodies. They need difference makers. Which are much more expensive the later we go here.
 
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#132      
Alabama (High School commits: 79.65%, Power 4 transfers (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC): 13.27%, Other transfers (G5/FCS/JUCO/D-II): 7.08%)
Oregon (High School commits: 77.88%, Power 4 transfers (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC): 12.39%, Other transfers (G5/FCS/JUCO/D-II): 9.73%)
Oklahoma (High School commits: 74.31, Power 4 transfers (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC): 9.17%, Other transfers (G5/FCS/JUCO/D-II): 16.51%)
Ohio State (High School commits: 82.36, Power 4 transfers (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC): 9.24%, Other transfers (G5/FCS/JUCO/D-II): 8.40%)
Indiana (High School commits: 65.09%, Power 4 transfers (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC): 11.32%, Other transfers (G5/FCS/JUCO/D-II): 23.58%)
Ole Miss (High School commits: 56.43%, Power 4 transfers (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC): 20.5%, Other transfers (G5/FCS/JUCO/D-II): 23.07%)
Miami (High School commits: 74.78%, Power 4 transfers (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC): 13.04%, Other transfers (G5/FCS/JUCO/D-II): 12.18%)
Texas Tech (High School commits: 60.88%, Power 4 transfers (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC): 29.26%, Other transfers (G5/FCS/JUCO/D-II): 9.86%)
Texas A&M (High School commits: 67.88%, Power 4 transfers (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC): 19.2%, Other transfers (G5/FCS/JUCO/D-II): 12.8%)
Georgia (High School commits: 81.4%, Power 4 transfers (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC): 10.2%, Other transfers (G5/FCS/JUCO/D-II): 8.5%)

So, on average (High School commits: 72%, Power 4 transfers (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC): 15%, Other transfers (G5/FCS/JUCO/D-II): 13%). Of that breakdown. The starters on those teams were heavily skewed towards commits and P4 transfer. About 85% of starting players on these teams came from those two categories. Meaning 87% of college football playoff rosters were P4 commits or transfers, and 85% of real production comes from this group. Non-P4 transfers accounted for 13% of total rosters in the college football playoffs, and about 15% of production (understanding that starting does not equal production, but gotta work today lol and cant do all that math).

Illinois Breakdown: (High School commits: 64.4%, Power 4 transfers (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC): 15.7%, Other transfers (G5/FCS/JUCO/D-II): 20.1%). Take that breakdown however you'd like to. But it shows that Illinois is comprised of non-P4 transfers at a much higher rate than the national average for high performing programs.
Kinda hard to evaluate this data without knowing what it is (Is this the whole roster? 2025 recruiting class? What am I looking at?), and without comparing to other programs. What if programs that did poorly also have similar ratios? Once I have the data set I should be looking at I think it'd be interesting to compare to programs like Arkansas and Mississippi St. Correlation =/= causation and without more info you can't really draw the conclusions you're drawing. I'm also going to point out that for the programs you selected as exemplars the average percentage of P4 transfers was 15% and ours was (is?) 15.7%. So the real difference is in high school commits vs non-p4 transfers, which would seem to make the large highly ranked prep class we brought in a good thing? And while yes, this means they losing a HS recruit like McCollum hurts that percentage for us, I guess losing non-P4 transfers like Bowick and Coenen is a good thing? Yet that completely contradicts your other argument? Was signing them bad and failing to retain them also bad?? Or would retaining them have been bad because too many non-P4 transfers = we suck??

2) the transfer portal rankings are a reliable indicator of success.
I used the transfer portal team rankings for 2025 and then compared it to the ESPN Power Index. There is a strong correlation. Transfer Rank (1 = best) vs FPI Rank (1 = best). If we roughly compute the correlation. Correlation coefficient ≈ +0.45 to +0.55. This means a moderate, meaningful positive correlation. (you can check all this using AI if you'd like). But there is strong data that suggest doing well in the portal rankings has a positive indicator towards success. So i think they do matter and using single data points instead of larger models to look at this is silly.
This is a hilarious way to do things when you consider that the FPI rankings use recruiting rankings, including transfer portal rankings, as an input. So of course there is a correlation. The correlation is literally built into the model.
 
#134      
The highest ranked recruiting class we’ve had in almost 20 years might help.
And that is awesome! No denying we remain a program on the upswing.

With the number of transfers out, the question is whether next year is a re-build or a re-load. The incoming freshman class will help a lot with the re-build and some toward the re-load. The transfers in will dictate whether or not we take a step back or a step forward, though.
 
#136      
It's the entire 2025 roster. I did compare mid-tier programs to top end ones (taking 3 in each conference). The lower level the program... the more they rely on non-P4 talent generally. The HS class we brought in was a step in the right direction for sure. No argument from me there. The issue with that is... only helps if you retain them and that's a multiyear investment which will not help us this year. We are not retaining the way we have before, thus... shifting our model. If we are going to recruit lower-level prospects we sure as !!!! better retain them... because as you said on your prior post... it is cheaper, correct? The better you do at HS recruiting = the less you got to do in the portal. If you are recruiting lower-level players and losing them?? Double whammy of bad. Issue is, we are not replacing them with other P4 recruits right now. Only fliers, giving us less and less room for bad evals.

And why do you think it's built into the model?? BECAUSE THEY MATTER lol.... use any other site or metric you'd like. Literally any other one. It shows direct significant correlation between portal rankings and on-field success. 10 of the 10 P4 team in the playoff last year had a top 25 portal class. I am not sure how to make this more simple for you
 
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#137      
My wish list

2 Edge rushers
2 Run stoppers interior lineman

Thought we had a couple rotation players in that category. Hated to lose:

McCollum run stopper to TAM - had be a bucket of money
Durajie run stopper to South Carolina - no idea why he left
Hood LB edge rusher to WV - was it money?

Welcome to uber portal
 
#139      
If only we had a Colorado St. connection or two.......
If we're filling a very big positional need in the defensive trenches with (relatively) unproven pieces from 2-10 Colorado State, I'd be a bit skeptical. We need TWO proven starters at DL to replace Tomiwa and Angelo.

I think the offense has a chance to be very good, particularly the passing attack. Definitely not as encouraging on the defensive side thus far.
 
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#140      
Jim Carrey Reaction GIF
 
#142      
If we're filling a very big positional need in the defensive trenches with (relatively) unproven pieces from 2-10 Colorado State, I'd be a bit skeptical. We need TWO proven starters at DL to replace Tomiwa and Angelo.

I think the offense has a chance to be very good, particularly the passing attack. Definitely not as encouraging on the defensive side thus far.
It's just comical how people cheered and said we'd do so much better when we lost those two.

The defensive front was already going to be a weakness losing Jacas. Now let's just hope it's not a trainwreck because, in all honesty, I kind of like our team in the other areas: offense, the secondary if we potentially get X back.

I do think Kicker is another question mark.
 
#143      
It's just comical how people cheered and said we'd do so much better when we lost those two.

The defensive front was already going to be a weakness losing Jacas. Now let's just hope it's not a trainwreck because, in all honesty, I kind of like our team in the other areas: offense, the secondary if we potentially get X back.

I do think Kicker is another question mark.
I totally agree with you for what it’s worth. Huge fan of what we did on offense, i think we reloaded very well there, liked the move for the center, Perry and Platt are nice options, kept all the RBs and most of the OL. I think the defense secondary has some intriguing bodies back there as well. Kicker and TE need someone else as well.

Don’t need to rehash the rest. But I do find it amusing too that the narrative went from “we’re easily gonna replace those guys” to “our Hs commits weren’t cheap and we should trust the staff”. Much different vibes a few days apart.
 
#145      
It's just comical how people cheered and said we'd do so much better when we lost those two.

The defensive front was already going to be a weakness losing Jacas. Now let's just hope it's not a trainwreck because, in all honesty, I kind of like our team in the other areas: offense, the secondary if we potentially get X back.

I do think Kicker is another question mark.
We are always going to score a touchdown then when we score a TD we just go for 2.... Cost savings!!!
 
#146      
Keona Davis won't be easy to get. I'm seeing a lot of interest for him already. Illinois better get the big bag out for him and lock it up quick. I'm getting the feeling he might be their #1 target from what i have been reading around. Really can't miss on this one if he is their top target.
 
#149      
Feel like to start this season, the carries did not lend itself to the most talented personnel.

Obviously to end the year Valentine got majority of the reps, but we went in with the idea of:

1A Feagin
1B Laughery
#3 back Valentine

To start next season it needs to be:

1A Valentine
1B Laughery
#3 back Feagin

Laughery has never averaged below 5 yards per carry at Illinois, so I'm good with him getting a chunk of the dosage when healthy (which has always been an issue).

Feagin this year averaged a pretty disappointing 4.2 YPC. He's a very, very serviceable third back in case an injury happens, but that "pop" just hasn't been there since his freshman year (for whatever reason).

Really think he's at his best when we get him on the perimeter on those short receiving routes (a la Minnesota, USC).
 
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#150      
Feel like to start this season, the carries did not lend itself to the most talented personnel.

Obviously to end the year Valentine got majority of the reps, but we went in with the idea of:

1A Feagin
1B Laughery
#3 back Valentine

To start next season it needs to be:

1A Valentine
1B Laughery
#3 back Feagin

Laughery has never averaged below 5 yards per carry at Illinois, so I'm good with him getting a chunk of the dosage when healthy (which has always been an issue).

Feagin this year averaged a pretty disappointing 4.2 YPC. He's a very, very serviceable third back in case an injury happens, but that "pop" just hasn't been there since his freshman year (for whatever reason).

I hope Feagin is used more in the passing game this year. He’s a huge target and a big mismatch for defenses
 
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