Illinois Football Recruiting Thread

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#76      
mhuml32
Illini92and96 said:
Johnson has six other offers from the BIG, 40% of the BIG already offering seems like a high enough bar to have the talent to win. Does it even matter how many schools from other conferences have offered, or is the BIG offer sheet an acceptable proxy?
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Short answer is we don't really know how many or which offers, but rule of thumb is setting arbitrary cut-offs (certain number of Big Ten schools, a specific Big Ten school, or certain schools that run similar schemes) is inviting more noise into the system and purposely cutting out the value of volume.
 
#77      
therealmiket86
mhuml32 said:
While trying to avoid the impossible "I know 'em when I see 'em" conversation, and the equally impossible rankings discussion, let's look at offers. Justin Johnson is a great get! I would happily take another 10 players of his caliber! but his offer sheet is different than guys like Wagner, Mattison, any of the top-8 guys on 247's in-state rankings. Offers are one of the strongest indicators of future success. Illinois needs to be bringing in as many recruits that are wanted by other P4 programs. The staff went from bringing in 0 recruits in 2022 with 20+ P4 offers to 12(!) in 2025. Now, the staff could think Justin Johnson is criminally underrated (which would make sense because the staff has prioritized him for a while now), and they've earned that respect based on recent recruiting, but that conversation was about (a) who are going to be the top recruits the staff brings in that can match Eberhart-Hankins-Rankin from an offer quality perspective? Parks and Wagner would definitely qualify in that tier.
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Justin Johnson Timeline Events

247sports.com 247sports.com

They a great offer list. Now consider the kid has only played football for 3 years and ran a 10.6 100m last year. By the time he sign I would be shocked if he doesn’t have offers from everyone in the big10. 6’2 corners with that speed aren’t easy to find in the Midwest
 
#79      
the juiceman cometh
mhuml32 said:
While trying to avoid the impossible "I know 'em when I see 'em" conversation, and the equally impossible rankings discussion, let's look at offers. Justin Johnson is a great get! I would happily take another 10 players of his caliber! but his offer sheet is different than guys like Wagner, Mattison, any of the top-8 guys on 247's in-state rankings. Offers are one of the strongest indicators of future success. Illinois needs to be bringing in as many recruits that are wanted by other P4 programs. The staff went from bringing in 0 recruits in 2022 with 20+ P4 offers to 12(!) in 2025. Now, the staff could think Justin Johnson is criminally underrated (which would make sense because the staff has prioritized him for a while now), and they've earned that respect based on recent recruiting, but that conversation was about (a) who are going to be the top recruits the staff brings in that can match Eberhart-Hankins-Rankin from an offer quality perspective? Parks and Wagner would definitely qualify in that tier.
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This year's in-state class is also incredibly strong and the top-8 guys are in that profile of national prospects who are going to not just get offers, but get serious interest, from blue blood programs. The top 4 players in the state are top-5 nationally for their position (including the #2 and #3 QBs in the nation). You can't really just compare in-state rank very easily year-to-year. Our top in-state recruit for 2026, going by 247 composite, was Hankins at #4 in the state, #134 nationally. Both by composite score and national ranking, Hankins would be #8 in the 2027 in-state class. Rankin, who was #8 in the state in 2026, would be #11 in this year's class. Johnson himself would have been a top-10 recruit (#9) if you ported his score over to 2026.
 
#80      
aaeismacgychel
the juiceman cometh said:
This year's in-state class is also incredibly strong and the top-8 guys are in that profile of national prospects who are going to not just get offers, but get serious interest, from blue blood programs. The top 4 players in the state are top-5 nationally for their position (including the #2 and #3 QBs in the nation). You can't really just compare in-state rank very easily year-to-year. Our top in-state recruit for 2026, going by 247 composite, was Hankins at #4 in the state, #134 nationally. Both by composite score and national ranking, Hankins would be #8 in the 2027 in-state class. Rankin, who was #8 in the state in 2026, would be #11 in this year's class. Johnson himself would have been a top-10 recruit (#9) if you ported his score over to 2026.
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I too think of it more like levels of competition:

1. Overwhelming Elite School Interest
2. Overwhelming P4 interest, some Elite heavy interest
3. High P4 interest
4. Moderate P4 interest
5. Some midlevel P4 interest, High midmajor interest
6. 1 or 2 P4 teams interested

For a long while we were at that sub-basement level of level 6 with not much of any hope in sight. Bret has in my opinion worked us all the way up to regular Level 3 and some Level 2 competition, which is no small feat. I think the top of the In-State class falls in that Tier 1 range, which in my opinion is a level range we haven't quite yet broken into.

If we do break that barrier and start winning those Tier 1 recruitments though... I mean, that'd be Bret turning us into an annual end of season Top 20 team and playoff candidate. I think the knocking on the door he's doing is getting louder. Hopefully he can bust through. Honestly just a masterful job to get to this point though.
 
#81      
pvaughn8
aaeismacgychel said:
I too think of it more like levels of competition:

1. Overwhelming Elite School Interest
2. Overwhelming P4 interest, some Elite heavy interest
3. High P4 interest
4. Moderate P4 interest
5. Some midlevel P4 interest, High midmajor interest
6. 1 or 2 P4 teams interested

For a long while we were at that sub-basement level of level 6 with not much of any hope in sight. Bret has in my opinion worked us all the way up to regular Level 3 and some Level 2 competition, which is no small feat. I think the top of the In-State class falls in that Tier 1 range, which in my opinion is a level range we haven't quite yet broken into.

If we do break that barrier and start winning those Tier 1 recruitments though... I mean, that'd be Bret turning us into an annual end of season Top 20 team and playoff candidate. I think the knocking on the door he's doing is getting louder. Hopefully he can bust through. Honestly just a masterful job to get to this point though.
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Great analysis, really like the groupings
 
#82      
IlliniWu
the juiceman cometh said:
This year's in-state class is also incredibly strong and the top-8 guys are in that profile of national prospects who are going to not just get offers, but get serious interest, from blue blood programs. The top 4 players in the state are top-5 nationally for their position (including the #2 and #3 QBs in the nation). You can't really just compare in-state rank very easily year-to-year. Our top in-state recruit for 2026, going by 247 composite, was Hankins at #4 in the state, #134 nationally. Both by composite score and national ranking, Hankins would be #8 in the 2027 in-state class. Rankin, who was #8 in the state in 2026, would be #11 in this year's class. Johnson himself would have been a top-10 recruit (#9) if you ported his score over to 2026.
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It's not so simple as offers all the time. You just have to trust you are making the right choices talent wise. Hankins was may be the best recruit in the state last year and Rankin is right up there as he showed in AA practices/game. Rankings aside, those were two of the better prospects coming out of the state at their positions in recent memory. And they're staying home.

They've been getting some really good player in-state these past few years. Tony B. at DT was All Area in bball. Do you know the type of potential that is as a DT....Paris at LB, Alexander at DE now in this system which is arguably just as good or better fit, etc.

Now this in-state class has started with a big commit. Johnson had 10.64 speed as a sophomore so is even more explosive now. 21.4 200 is elite as well so speed for days. 6'2, very physical. Can play at CB in this 3-3-5 or be an absolute ball hawk at FS. As with others like Hankins, Eberhart, Rankin, etc. can be an impact player on offense or defense.

They still have to win more, but they've been doing an impressive job and that continues.
 
#83      
ChiefGritty
aaeismacgychel said:
For a long while we were at that sub-basement level of level 6 with not much of any hope in sight.
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Literally every coach we've had in the internet era has gotten the "wow, we're finally involved with top kids and our commitments have offers from other big schools, not like that last idiot failure who never recruited a single player anyone else wanted". (Only post having his recruiting staff fired in Zook's case of course)

Bielema has waxed and waned in prep recruiting, which of course occupies a very different place in program building than it used to. This most recent class is clearly his best yet.

The thing that stands out for me as different with Bielema though is that at every point throughout his tenure he has never given up on taking in-state kids outside of the top of the state rankings. Lovie, Beckman and Zook all arrived talking a big game about in-state recruiting but as soon as there was any friction the focus was totally on Florida, Texas, Ohio, the deeper and "easier" pools, which, to be clear, often have better players and many of those unheralded guys became stars for us.

So it's not even necessarily to say that what BB is doing is *better*, but it is noticeably different, and feels reflective of his bigger picture view of what the football team at the University of Illinois is supposed to be.
 
#86      
chiefIlliniWek4.0
Don't let the Indiana flash pan fool you. Illinois's also been doing something unthinkable, and other teams are going to try stealing our under ranked dudes... Does Lopatti get the same amount of attention after verbally to us 10 years ago?
 
#88      
therealmiket86
ChiefGritty said:
Literally every coach we've had in the internet era has gotten the "wow, we're finally involved with top kids and our commitments have offers from other big schools, not like that last idiot failure who never recruited a single player anyone else wanted". (Only post having his recruiting staff fired in Zook's case of course)

Bielema has waxed and waned in prep recruiting, which of course occupies a very different place in program building than it used to. This most recent class is clearly his best yet.

The thing that stands out for me as different with Bielema though is that at every point throughout his tenure he has never given up on taking in-state kids outside of the top of the state rankings. Lovie, Beckman and Zook all arrived talking a big game about in-state recruiting but as soon as there was any friction the focus was totally on Florida, Texas, Ohio, the deeper and "easier" pools, which, to be clear, often have better players and many of those unheralded guys became stars for us.

So it's not even necessarily to say that what BB is doing is *better*, but it is noticeably different, and feels reflective of his bigger picture view of what the football team at the University of Illinois is supposed to be.
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if we are going to take a flyer on a kid I would rather it be an instate prospect. Look at our last few recruiting classes and the out state kids at the bottom of the class are gone. In most cases you can find a similar prospect instate and the kid actually might stay in the program and develop. When you’re a long way from home and not player most kids will transfer.
 
#91      
ChiefGritty
therealmiket86 said:
if we are going to take a flyer on a kid I would rather it be an instate prospect. Look at our last few recruiting classes and the out state kids at the bottom of the class are gone. In most cases you can find a similar prospect instate and the kid actually might stay in the program and develop. When you’re a long way from home and not player most kids will transfer.
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I totally connect with this emotionally too, and yet Devon Witherspoon, late flyer from Florida, Sydney Brown, late flyer from Florida, Kerby Joseph, late flyer from Florida, etc.
 
#93      
therealmiket86
ChiefGritty said:
I totally connect with this emotionally too, and yet Devon Witherspoon, late flyer from Florida, Sydney Brown, late flyer from Florida, Kerby Joseph, late flyer from Florida, etc.
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100% agree and a lot of times when you take a late flyer that kid blew up his senior year or is a late qualifier. Look at the bottom of the last several BB recruiting classes and it’s a majority of out of state busts. Instead of taking a prospect like Nate Guinn we could’ve gotten someone in state or from the Midwest that was a similar prospect. That’s not a late flyer it was an early reach.

The hit rate on the signing day surprises from Lovie and BB actually have been very good
 
#94      
IlliniWu
Big Jack said:
Curious after doing a little research but would it not make sense to make this kid a WR? You don't get to many kids with that 100 speed? Gotta believe he could be an asset on offense
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That's the best thing about recruiting athletes of this nature. If for whatever reason, they can change sides and still be an impact player. They have several who will be real impact players on whichever side they wind up.
 
#96      
Joel Goodson
therealmiket86 said:
100% agree and a lot of times when you take a late flyer that kid blew up his senior year or is a late qualifier. Look at the bottom of the last several BB recruiting classes and it’s a majority of out of state busts. Instead of taking a prospect like Nate Guinn we could’ve gotten someone in state or from the Midwest that was a similar prospect. That’s not a late flyer it was an early reach.

The hit rate on the signing day surprises from Lovie and BB actually have been very good
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permanently scarred by Lovie going with Carlos Sandy over Alec Pierce
 
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