Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread (July-August 2016)

[Epsilon]

Meh.

Didn't DePaul have a mcd AA who was a 1st round pick and 2 other 1st round picks in late 90- early aughts?

Didn't too too much for them.

I don't expect it will bring a sea Change for SLU Especially if Ford is itching to get back to P5 asap

My predictions for Ford and SLU:
1. Ford manages to bring in some pretty decent talent for a mid major school.
2. SLU still manages to under-perform based on their talent.
3. Ford manages to get back into a P5 job because he can recruit well.
4. Next SLU coach does well with his talent.
5. Ford does rinse lather and repeat at next school.

 

[CAHALL15]

Kiir came to the US from Australia. He may have come from Sudan? to Australia. I doubt distance is an issue.

I didn't phrase that very well. I was trying to illustrate a scenario where if Kiir is apprehensive about a particular issue, Frazier may be able soothe those doubts since they both live in the same state.

 

[Obelix]

My predictions for Ford and SLU:
1. Ford manages to bring in some pretty decent talent for a mid major school.
2. SLU still manages to under-perform based on their talent.
3. Ford manages to get back into a P5 job because he can recruit well.
4. Next SLU coach does well with his talent.
5. Ford does rinse lather and repeat at next school.

Again, I think these are contradictory statements. Ford will not get a P5 job because he manages to bring in some "decent talent for a mid major," yet he under-performs with that talent. Goodwin is definitely a very good player for a mid-major but it is not that Ford is bringing in classes of top-ranked players and McD AAs. If he under-performs with "decent talent" at SLU, he is not moving up.

Ford brought multiple top recruits at OSU (Smart, Nash, Evans, etc.), players much higher ranked than Goodwin, yet he got fired and was not able to get a P5 job. So he will now "under-perform" with just "decent talent" at SLU and get a P5? Not happening.

 

[Obelix]

AD's can sometimes be short-sighted. Especially if they are hiring for a historically bad sport at their school.

If Travis Ford:

1. Under-performs with top talent at OSU (already happened), and
2. Under-performs with just "decent talent" at SLU,

it will simply reinforce the perception that he is just a bad coach, no matter what the talent, rather than move up to P5.

I think much of the (irrational) discussion on this more envy towards Goodwin ending up at SLU rather than reality of what is even remotely likely top happen (i.e., Ford moving up at P5, despite under-performing at SLU).

 

[Deleted member 29907]

AD's can sometimes overlook red flags. Especially if they are hiring for a historically bad sport at their school.

(this is a jab at Mike Thomas)

And darn him for letting BW go!!!! Mediocrity boys, that's where it is. Right in that meaty part of the bell curve.

 

[Obelix]

The recruiting has been excellent -- in line with what we all expected three years ago

We have to wait to see how the class finishes up to call it excellent. But I agree with the overall sentiment that it is the kind of class that Groce needed to have in previous years.

I thought Groce's biggest mistake in previous classes was recruiting balance, more than specific player quality. Obviously, Tilmon is the big catch of this class, but so far the rest of the players are not significantly higher ranked than in some of his previous classes. For example, you can argue that Hill, Nunn, or even JCL, DJW, etc. where higher ranked than the rest of the players in this class (sans Tilmon). But this is a much more positionally balanced overall class that we desperately needed. Flexibility is great, and some had argued in favor of stocking up on wings, with the hope that we can turn them into players in other positions. But unless you can attract top talent to mask positional gaps (e.g., Flyin Illini), I am not a fan of that strategy.

This is the kind of class he needs to consistently build upon to have better chances with top recruits. I am more conservative in my expectations and believe that it will be harder to replace Hill, Nunn (already gone), Thorne, Mav, Abrams, and Tate with this class in their first year. So it will not be unexpected that the 2016-17 team does better than the 2017-18 team. But the 2017 recruiting class is the kind of class you can build the program around (with recruiting moving forward) and take a big step up (as a program) by their sophomore and junior years.

 

[Obelix]

Yes he'll have a great 2017 class coming in but they'll all have signed their NLI's so whoever the new coach is will have a lot of leverage in making sure those recruits stay for at least a year.

Not much leverage. This is over-exaggerated IMO, if the coach gets fired and a player wants to leave, it is very rare (and shamed) tactic to not release players. So it will come down to who the new coach will be, and his ability to keep players. NLI has little effect IMO, school will not keep players hostage.

 

[jrichisamazing]

We have to wait to see how the class finishes up to call it excellent. But I agree with the overall sentiment that it is the kind of class that Groce needed to have in previous years.

I thought Groce's biggest mistake in previous classes was recruiting balance, more than specific player quality. Obviously, Tilmon is the big catch of this class, but so far the rest of the players are not significantly higher ranked than in some of his previous classes. For example, you can argue that Hill, Nunn, or even JCL, DJW, etc. where higher ranked than the rest of the players in this class (sans Tilmon). But this is a much more positionally balanced overall class that we desperately needed. Flexibility is great, and some had argued in favor of stocking up on wings, with the hope that we can turn them into players in other positions. But unless you can attract top talent to mask positional gaps (e.g., Flyin Illini), I am not a fan of that strategy.

This is the kind of class he needs to consistently build upon to have better chances with top recruits. I am more conservative in my expectations and believe that it will be harder to replace Hill, Nunn (already gone), Thorne, Mav, Abrams, and Tate with this class in their first year. So it will not be unexpected that the 2016-17 team does better than the 2017-18 team. But the 2017 recruiting class is the kind of class you can build the program around (with recruiting moving forward) and take a big step up (as a program) by their sophomore and junior years.

The '15 and '16 classes were good to build on as well. Finke, Black, AJ, DJW, JCL, TJL, Kipper. The only position Groce missed is a C and of course we have Tilmon coming in so it's not a problem. But if all goes well this season then we shouldn't need any of the '17 class to play big minutes right away, except for Tilmon.

To be able to bring in a talented class and need almost none of them right away is pretty much the definition of a healthy program.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Not much leverage. This is over-exaggerated IMO, if the coach gets fired and a player wants to leave, it is very rare (and shamed) tactic to not release players. So it will come down to who the new coach will be, and his ability to keep players. NLI has little effect IMO, school will not keep players hostage.

Well, players generally tend to stay aboard after they have signed their LOI's and I think it would be naive to assume that the implicit threat isn't a part of that.

 

[Combo]

We have to wait to see how the class finishes up to call it excellent. But I agree with the overall sentiment that it is the kind of class that Groce needed to have in previous years.

I thought Groce's biggest mistake in previous classes was recruiting balance, more than specific player quality. Obviously, Tilmon is the big catch of this class, but so far the rest of the players are not significantly higher ranked than in some of his previous classes. For example, you can argue that Hill, Nunn, or even JCL, DJW, etc. where higher ranked than the rest of the players in this class (sans Tilmon). But this is a much more positionally balanced overall class that we desperately needed. Flexibility is great, and some had argued in favor of stocking up on wings, with the hope that we can turn them into players in other positions. But unless you can attract top talent to mask positional gaps (e.g., Flyin Illini), I am not a fan of that strategy.

This is the kind of class he needs to consistently build upon to have better chances with top recruits. I am more conservative in my expectations and believe that it will be harder to replace Hill, Nunn (already gone), Thorne, Mav, Abrams, and Tate with this class in their first year. So it will not be unexpected that the 2016-17 team does better than the 2017-18 team. But the 2017 recruiting class is the kind of class you can build the program around (with recruiting moving forward) and take a big step up (as a program) by their sophomore and junior years.

Most importantly, with the '16 and '17 class, he seems to have nailed the PG position. The 1 spot has been a huge problem for us for years, including Weber's last several.

 

[Obelix]

The '15 and '16 classes were good to build on as well. Finke, Black, AJ, DJW, JCL, TJL, Kipper. The only position Groce missed is a C and of course we have Tilmon coming in so it's not a problem. But if all goes well this season then we shouldn't need any of the '17 class to play big minutes right away, except for Tilmon.

To be able to bring in a talented class and need almost none of them right away is pretty much the definition of a healthy program.

You assume/project too much of the existing team at this point as far as replacing Abrams, Hill, Nunn, Thorne, Mav, and Tate. It will take huge improvements from performance of existing wings (+ 2017 wings) to replace what Hill/Nunn had given us and what Hill will mean to this team this year. Replacing Thorne/Mav with two freshmen in first year (assuming we even add someone to Tilmon) will be a daunting task.

I have seen Tilmon multiple times and like him a lot, but I believe many have exaggerated expectations in his first year. And even replacing Abrams/Tate assumes players like TJL, DW, and Frazier (non of them have played a single game) will be ready to play at B1G level early on. At PF, Black is still a question mark based on justifying his HS ranking.

It can happen, but I do not expect a big jump in program status in 2017-18 year. Not n the B1G with MSU, Indiana, Michigan, etc. and their recruiting. I hope the next two years are more of stabilizing years as far as making the tournament. Maybe my expectations are more conservative but I do not expect a big step up beyond making the tournament in 2017-18. Actually, assuming a healthy team, my expectations are higher in 2016-17 as far as single season record.

 

[Obelix]

Most importantly, with the '16 and '17 class, he seems to have nailed the PG position. The 1 spot has been a huge problem for us for years, including Weber's last several.

Not sure if I would call it "nailed" as none have played a game yet, and none of the incoming (projected) PGs are very highly ranked, but I do agree with the sentiment. I also like DW's potential a lot, and while I have never watched Frazier, I do know of some AAU coaches who have watched him play (and trust their opinion) and they had very positive things to say.

The other position is PF/C. Tilmon's addition is huge. Add one more big and it is a very solid (not spectacular) class, with good positional balance where we had hurt the most.

 

[Combo]

Not sure if I would call it "nailed" as none have played a game yet, and none of the incoming (projected) PGs are very highly ranked, but I do agree with the sentiment. I also like DW's potential a lot, and while I have never watched Frazier, I do know of some AAU coaches who have watched him play (and trust their opinion) and they had very positive things to say.

The other position is PF/C. Tilmon's addition is huge. Add one more big and it is a very solid (not spectacular) class, with good positional balance where we had hurt the most.

"nailed it" in comparison with his first few classes. We all know the goose eggs with PGs and the subpar talent we've had at that spot. In comparison, Frazier, Lucas, and maybe DMW is nailing it IMO.

 

[Obelix]

"nailed it" in comparison with his first few classes. We all know the goose eggs with PGs and the subpar talent we've had at that spot. In comparison, Frazier, Lucas, and maybe DMW is nailing it IMO.

Yep, I agree. :thumb:

Plus, with 3 coming in, there are purely better chances that at least one of them proves to be a solid PG at B1G level.

 

[Obelix]

Well, players generally tend to stay aboard after they have signed their LOI's and I think it would be naive to assume that the implicit threat isn't a part of that.

Most stay, but it not really the LOI. For most middle of the pack recruits, the runway is too short to leave (unless they are asked) to find better opportunities. So they hope for the best with the new coach and stay.

But it is not a majority issue here. It is the risk of your top recruits who can have a choice of schools. It is extremely rare that a recruit who asks to be released from LOI, does not get released. It is those few recruits who will ask, not the risk of losing the entire class.

We can debate the should and the should not's all day, but I am not as sure, as some other posters seem to be, that the administration will take such risk with an NIT bid. Obviously, the decision is much easier with a bad season and no post-season.

Furthermore, I read quite often the disclaimer "if healthy" when it comes to that point, as in a binary decision (i.e., healthy/not healthy). Truth is that there will be much gray area with many of our players (e.g., Abrams, Thorne, TJL, Black) who may be healthy enough to play but not up to full potential due to previous injuries. I am sure it will be argued whether the whole team was completely healthy (if we miss the NCAA).

In any case, hopefully, we do not have to get into that debate.

 

[CARPET]

It can happen, but I do not expect a big jump in program status in 2017-18 year. Not n the B1G with MSU, Indiana, Michigan, etc. and their recruiting. I hope the next two years are more of stabilizing years as far as making the tournament. Maybe my expectations are more conservative but I do not expect a big step up beyond making the tournament in 2017-18. Actually, assuming a healthy team, my expectations are higher in 2016-17 as far as single season record.

Obelix you are a solid poster and I love reading your insight. Do you actually believe that this years team will have a better record than next years?

Please tell me more and why -if you would be so kind.

Thanks

 

[Johnny Lawrence]

Again, I think these are contradictory statements. Ford will not get a P5 job because he manages to bring in some "decent talent for a mid major," yet he under-performs with that talent. Goodwin is definitely a very good player for a mid-major but it is not that Ford is bringing in classes of top-ranked players and McD AAs. If he under-performs with "decent talent" at SLU, he is not moving up.

Ford brought multiple top recruits at OSU (Smart, Nash, Evans, etc.), players much higher ranked than Goodwin, yet he got fired and was not able to get a P5 job. So he will now "under-perform" with just "decent talent" at SLU and get a P5? Not happening.

I agree with your premise but Steve Alford seems to do this with regularity.

 

[illini8507]

Maybe my expectations are more conservative but I do not expect a big step up beyond making the tournament in 2017-18. Actually, assuming a healthy team, my expectations are higher in 2016-17 as far as single season record.

I'm a bit apprehensive to predict how we will look in 2017/18 until I see TJL and Kipper play, and what kind of improvements this year's sophomores make. That being said, I can't say I disagree with you. We will be losing a B1G Poy candidate, and starting a true freshman at center. The next year, when JCL, AJ, DJ, Finke, and Black are seniors and our 17 recruiting class are sophmores should be very good in theory

 

[BillMo]

As long as
Tilmon is an Illini JG will be his coach, and you can take that one to the bank

 

[UofIChE06]

Obelix you are a solid poster and I love reading your insight. Do you actually believe that this years team will have a better record than next years?

Please tell me more and why -if you would be so kind.

Thanks

Malcolm Hill.... not easy replacing a POY caliber player.

 

[Obelix]

Obelix you are a solid poster and I love reading your insight. Do you actually believe that this years team will have a better record than next years?

I am not sure it will happen, but I do not think it would be unexpected. The reason is that I do not know what to expect from the team this coming year. Abrams, TJL, Black, Kipper, and Thorne are huge question marks. Yet, the team really depends on those players as key parts of the rotation (with the possible exception of Kipper who I have never seen play). So it is a question of health, level of health, and performance.

Will Abrams be anywhere close to his junior year despite his shortcomings? We are two years removed from that time and two major surgeries.

TJL has potential but was not really very highly ranked. One AAU coach that I know actually likes Frazier better. Then, TJL had a season ending injury. We need him, even in back up role, but can he contribute early on in the B1G?

Black has been more about potential and expectations since HS than consistent performance, even when healthy. Then had the injury.

Kipper, I have never seen play. Looks athletic. If he can rebound and play tough D, I think he can surprise. But can he?

Thorne has the potential to be a difference maker IMO, but even prior to injury, he did not seem to be able to average 25-30 mins.

So it is unclear if the key players on the rotation above play anywhere close to their potential. If they do, it will be difficult for incoming 2017 recruits to replace the departing Hill (likely 1st team all-B1G), Abrams, Thorne, Mav, and Tate. Tilmon is really good IMO, but may not be a huge contributor as a freshman.

I do like the 2017 class, however, and its balance so far. IMO it is a great class to build around in their sophomore and junior years. JMO.

 

[Obelix]

I agree with your premise but Steve Alford seems to do this with regularity.

Not sure if that is a valid comparison. As much as I do not like Alford, he stayed 6 entire years at UNM (so the P5 opportunity did not come early) and it would be a stretch to say that he under-performed there.

If Travis Ford has the same success for 6 years at SLU as Alford at New Mexico, then yes, I believe he will get a P5 job, although not UCLA level.

 

[Epsilon]

Again, I think these are contradictory statements. Ford will not get a P5 job because he manages to bring in some "decent talent for a mid major," yet he under-performs with that talent. Goodwin is definitely a very good player for a mid-major but it is not that Ford is bringing in classes of top-ranked players and McD AAs. If he under-performs with "decent talent" at SLU, he is not moving up.

Ford brought multiple top recruits at OSU (Smart, Nash, Evans, etc.), players much higher ranked than Goodwin, yet he got fired and was not able to get a P5 job. So he will now "under-perform" with just "decent talent" at SLU and get a P5? Not happening.

I don't think they are contradictory statements. Under performance is relative to expectations, whatever those may be. I think it is distinctly possible he finds himself at a lower level P5 school in a pinch, looking for a coach.

 

[Epsilon]

Not sure if that is a valid comparison. As much as I do not like Alford, he stayed 6 entire years at UNM (so the P5 opportunity did not come early) and it would be a stretch to say that he under-performed there.

If Travis Ford has the same success for 6 years at SLU as Alford at New Mexico, then yes, I believe he will get a P5 job, although not UCLA level.

I think the overall point is that a lot of coaches get recycled; many of which situations make you scratch your head.

 

[TCTORNADO]

Abu Kigab names his top 6 ---Illinois, Tenn, Oregon, Cal, USC and UCLA.per Corey Evans of HoopSeen.
We get an OV on 9/16. Oregon is the heavy favorite.