Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread (March 2018)

[Calvin]

Who very possibly causes one of your two crown jewels to transfer at some point in the relatively near future. That's why I don't get the Ramey push.

I don't get this mentality. If you're scared of recruiting the very best players you can because they may out-perform someone else, then I think you've already lost.

 

[TheGMan]

Who very possibly causes one of your two crown jewels to transfer at some point in the relatively near future. That's why I don't get the Ramey push. Ayo and Frazier both need to be ball-heavy, offense-initiating point guards. College basketball history, including famously at Illinois, is replete with teams that used two of those guys at once to great effect. But not three, particularly not in this system that prioritizes length on defense.

Transfer numbers are exploding in college basketball. Guys with big opportunities elsewhere (true of Smith, Frazier, Ayo and certainly Ramey) don't just sit around on the bench or out of position anymore.

Maybe an optimistic case is that the three guys challenge one another and the best two rise and the other one leaves, but can you be 1000% sure of that? And also, that only heightens the opportunity cost argument. We could be pushing our way into a recruitment that fills a hole and doesn't unbalance the roster.

Ramey is a stud, and if he's dying to come here you take him and figure it out later. But spending big man-hours pushing our way into that recruitment has never made a ton of sense to me, though obviously the player himself is not the only factor as he's the son of a prominent AAU coach in a market we're trying to break into more generally. Those kinds of calculations are ultimately ones that it's tough to analyze from the outside.

I absolutely see your points, and they are valid. There are valid points for both positions, and I don't think there is a completely right or wrong answer. It all depends on the particular situation. But, I will say in response to this post, that can you be 1000% sure that not recruiting Ramey guarantees that Frazier and/or Ayo don't transfer?

Getting too many good players for one position can absolutely cause problems. Can't argue that. But in the long run, isn't it not the worst problem to have?

Furthermore, while there is an opportunity cost to recruiting a player that likely won't come here, I personally don't think it is as big a cost as some might think. But that's just me personally.

 

[Peoria Pipeline]

Illinois and Indiana are the only two programs I'm aware of where there a built-in fan and media psychodrama for multiple prominent in-state recruits every year.

Some schools are in states that don't produce that kind of talent so those dramas are rare exceptions, others don't have the singular flagship prominence to demand that kind of attention, others (Texas, Florida) are football schools where the temperature is turned down a bit on that sort of thing. UNC usually gets their man, and if not they're usually going to another in-state school.

But the massive external pressure to recruit certain kids whether or not they fit and whether or not the school has any realistic chance of landing them is a burden that seems unique to us and IU.

To me, there is no striking a balance with that influence. You either succumb to it, do whatever it takes NCAA-legal or otherwise to remain stocked with elite in-state kids and just sorta roll the ball out (see Henson, Lou), or you explicitly reject it and base your program around fit to a system and players who recognize the opportunity to play for a Big Ten school under a coach who can develop your specific talents, taking a pass on circus recruitments altogether.

My frustration with Underwood is borne out of my initial hope that he was going to affirmatively take the program in the latter direction, but instead seeing that he seems to be getting pulled in both directions, just like Weber and Groce before him.

(You could argue Bill Self balanced the two. But he's a Hall of Fame unicorn. He ain't walking through that door.)

Who has Underwood recruited that you would consider a circus recruitment? I see no circus with the Ramey recruitment.

 

[TheGMan]

But the massive external pressure to recruit certain kids whether or not they fit and whether or not the school has any realistic chance of landing them is a burden that seems unique to us and IU.

My frustration with Underwood is borne out of my initial hope that he was going to affirmatively take the program in the latter direction, but instead seeing that he seems to be getting pulled in both directions, just like Weber and Groce before him.

I do, however, disagree with these two points in your last post. I think every coach at every school has this pressure. Even the blue bloods, although maybe to a lesser extent.

For the second part, you may be right that he is getting pulled in two directions, but I just think it's too early to make that call.

 

[Obelix]

Who has Underwood recruited that you would consider a circus recruitment? I see no circus with the Ramey recruitment.

I think circus recruitment is probably the wrong term, but certainly Tilmon, Nolley, and THT were not exactly straight forward recruitments, they all had some complications. I find no way you can avoid those, we need difference makers and given the state of the program, that means taking some chances/risks. Normal course of action in recruiting (i.e., safer recruits) will not get us there. JMO.

 

[Tribe88]

IF Feliz is ready to commit right now, I hope we aren't waiting for Ramey. Feliz would contribute and most likely start right away in my opinion.

 

[ChiefIllini]

IF Feliz is ready to commit right now, I hope we aren't waiting for Ramey. Feliz would contribute and most likely start right away in my opinion.

Over Ayo, Frazier, and every other returning guard? That is a bold prediction if I've ever seen one. And we can talk about positionless basketball till the cows come home, but if Ayo, Trent, and Felix were to start, please tell me whos guarding 6'6" and taller wings? Not to mention Kipper is probably rolling out there at the 4.

 

[ILL in IA]

Less likely to happen as this scenario takes away from 2019 scholarships. We definitely need a very strong 2019 fall recruiting class, and I really doubt we will voluntarily carry open scholarships in the Spring unless we strike out again in the fall.

Wasnt advocating to roll a ride over. But if one was rolled over, I would rather have my options open should something come up. Giving a ride to a walk-on for that first semester is a bad move. Leave it open just in case.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Who has Underwood recruited that you would consider a circus recruitment? I see no circus with the Ramey recruitment.

Louisville decommit is all I'd say about Ramey.

But I think the bigger indicator is the way Underwood built his staff, and I think that presents a specific forward looking-example. Adam Miller.

Miller could fall in love with Duke, he could demand a six-figure payment to secure his signature, he could start a blood feud with Samba Kane, he could decide he looks ugly in orange, anything, and we are absolutely trapped into 100% max effort and visibility on that recruitment until the very end, including selling other '20 players on teaming up with him and building that class around that recruitment, not to mention the media and online narrative, which if you think is totally meaningless you must have become an Illini fan yesterday.

It will shock no one here when I say I'm a natural pessimist. When I see Chin Coleman get hired, those shackles are more prominent in my mind than the potential opportunities. Maybe I'm an idiot and Ayo is going to be Allen Iverson, but for me, signing a four or five man Ayo-less class in the fall of dead-bang fits from wherever, sold on the prospect of executing specific roles within the Underwood system would point toward the brighter future. I'm a sucker for plans.

 

[haasi]

Maybe I'm an idiot and Ayo is going to be Allen Iverson, but for me, signing a four or five man Ayo-less class in the fall of dead-bang fits from wherever, sold on the prospect of executing specific roles within the Underwood system would point toward the brighter future. I'm a sucker for plans.

Not saying you’re wrong about whole Coleman/overcommitting to geography/5 stars etc., but to the extent that you’re implying that getting Ayo is anything less than awesome news, this is a scalding hot take.


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[MC06]

Louisville decommit is all I'd say about Ramey.

But I think the bigger indicator is the way Underwood built his staff, and I think that presents a specific forward looking-example. Adam Miller.

Miller could fall in love with Duke, he could demand a six-figure payment to secure his signature, he could start a blood feud with Samba Kane, he could decide he looks ugly in orange, anything, and we are absolutely trapped into 100% max effort and visibility on that recruitment until the very end, including selling other '20 players on teaming up with him and building that class around that recruitment, not to mention the media and online narrative, which if you think is totally meaningless you must have become an Illini fan yesterday.

It will shock no one here when I say I'm a natural pessimist. When I see Chin Coleman get hired, those shackles are more prominent in my mind than the potential opportunities. Maybe I'm an idiot and Ayo is going to be Allen Iverson, but for me, signing a four or five man Ayo-less class in the fall of dead-bang fits from wherever, sold on the prospect of executing specific roles within the Underwood system would point toward the brighter future. I'm a sucker for plans.

I think you’re creating a false choice here. We went after (and landed Ayo) in the fall. We also went after and missed on lower rated players. Other than THT (which was just an odd scenario), it’s not like the pursuit of Ayo is what cost us in those other recruitments. And given the choice between Ayo and THT, I think most would agree we got the guy who will do more for the program.

Going after Adam Miller is not going to inhibit our ability to also go after the Carson Edwards, Ethan Happ, Abdur-Rachman and Dakota Mathias type recruits. What separates Michigan, Wisconsin and Purdue is not hat they are disinterested in landing 5 stars, but rather that they are able to evaluate and identify the other players that can carry the program forward when they miss on the 5 stars. Remains to be seen if this staff can do so.

 

[Elgin7680]

Only the staff knows what the conversation has been like with Ramey. All of these coaches have been recruiting for years, I trust they know what they are doing. On this Board no one really knows what is going on.

 

[Tribe88]

Over Ayo, Frazier, and every other returning guard? That is a bold prediction if I've ever seen one. And we can talk about positionless basketball till the cows come home, but if Ayo, Trent, and Felix were to start, please tell me whos guarding 6'6" and taller wings? Not to mention Kipper is probably rolling out there at the 4.

General consensus is if Ramey commits he would start with those two because he is a pure point guard. He's 6 3 and Feliz is 6 2. What's the difference?

 

[Monte Carlo]

Over Ayo, Frazier, and every other returning guard? That is a bold prediction if I've ever seen one. And we can talk about positionless basketball till the cows come home, but if Ayo, Trent, and Felix were to start, please tell me whos guarding 6'6" and taller wings? Not to mention Kipper is probably rolling out there at the 4.

I think Kipper is rolling out at the four no matter what at this point. Even if we were to land Hinson, I don't think he supplants Kipper, and with Ayo, Trent, Damonte and Jordan, Griffin the 1-3 are covered without even considering any other guards we may pick up that would fit there. I guess if you are thinking Kipper would not be at the 4, you would have to think Hinson (should we get him), or Trice (same, although seems like he has cooled) or Kane/Georgi would be our 4? Jones is more a wing, so that's another three and I don't hear of any other 4s that we are really after right now. I see Kipper sharing the 4 with someone. Could Matic be the 4, but he is rumored to be all but gone.

 

[ChiefIllini]

General consensus is if Ramey commits he would start with those two because he is a pure point guard. He's 6 3 and Feliz is 6 2. What's the difference?

I'm not sure Ramey, Ayo, and Frazier would start together, though word is Ramey is a great defender (also heard he's just as tall as Ayo--closer to 6'4"/5".)

I guess my though is how well can they all defend? I was unimpressed by Frazier's D, though it was more than serviceable. If Ayo can defend well, I guess he could guard some wings, because if Feliz does come, I dont see him doing that and Frazier has no capability of it. Curious how to see those defensive matchups playing out.

Either way, it's gonna be a challenge defensively if either of those two options actually start together. Also, never as high as some on JUCO guys. Very hit or miss (leaning towards the latter). Doubt Feliz is starter material on a team with two great guards already starting.

 

[Ga65]

I think Kipper is rolling out at the four no matter what at this point. Even if we were to land Hinson, I don't think he supplants Kipper, and with Ayo, Trent, Damonte and Jordan, Griffin the 1-3 are covered without even considering any other guards we may pick up that would fit there. I guess if you are thinking Kipper would not be at the 4, you would have to think Hinson (should we get him), or Trice (same, although seems like he has cooled) or Kane/Georgi would be our 4? Jones is more a wing, so that's another three and I don't hear of any other 4s that we are really after right now. I see Kipper sharing the 4 with someone. Could Matic be the 4, but he is rumored to be all but gone.

Would love seeing Kipper play the three for what he gives us on defense and rebounding there instead of the disadvantage he has at the four. However, think you are right because we don't have a four unless it is Hinson or Bez is much ahead of where I think he is. Reason I still think we need a transfer at that position if we are really going to compete.

 

[Tribe88]

I'm not sure Ramey, Ayo, and Frazier would start together, though word is Ramey is a great defender (also heard he's just as tall as Ayo--closer to 6'4"/5".)

I guess my though is how well can they all defend? I was unimpressed by Frazier's D, though it was more than serviceable. If Ayo can defend well, I guess he could guard some wings, because if Feliz does come, I dont see him doing that and Frazier has no capability of it. Curious how to see those defensive matchups playing out.

Either way, it's gonna be a challenge defensively if either of those two options actually start together. Also, never as high as some on JUCO guys. Very hit or miss (leaning towards the latter). Doubt Feliz is starter material on a team with two great guards already starting.

Very fair points

 

[TCTORNADO]

Feliz' strength is his assists, he averaged 6.1 APG. That would have been 2nd in B1G last year. Plus he is going to be 21 in July and has Pan Am and U19 World Championship experience. He defends extremely well and is tough as nails. Shoots the 3 fairly well. He would start from day1. Biggest question mark is the grades thing from his USF academic fraud days with OA and OA's brother. Of course it won't be Ramey and Feliz but one or the other.

 

[TCTORNADO]

Speaking of Trice, he is taking an OV to see Weber.

 

[Obelix]

Wasnt advocating to roll a ride over. But if one was rolled over, I would rather have my options open should something come up. Giving a ride to a walk-on for that first semester is a bad move. Leave it open just in case.

Gotcha. I was talking about the possibility of a a mid-year transfer. Mid-year transfers usually happen in December, when players realize that it is not going to happen at the current school or have a problem with a coach. At that time, you also need a scholarship for the following year. So even if we leave available one for 2018 (by not signing a 5th year and not not giving it to a walk-on), we still need to leave a 2019 scholarship open after fall recruiting and that is less likely to happen unless we completely strike out next fall.

 

[EJ33]

Not saying you’re wrong about whole Coleman/overcommitting to geography/5 stars etc., but to the extent that you’re implying that getting Ayo is anything less than awesome news, this is a scalding hot take.


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Does S&C have any other kind of take?

IIRC, he said he would've taken Conditt over Ayo.

 

[Obelix]

That might apply to misinformed lesser talents, but the pro scouts do not care, and the better players know that. The pros look at skills, test results, and measurements. If they can play lead guard in the NBA, it does not matter if they play the 2 or even the 3 in college.

I disagree, pro scouts will have less interest in an undersized SG unless he can also handle and play PG and will not just draft one with the "hope" of converting him to an NBA PG. They will need to have seen him play true PG in college. That was actually the knock on Dee, he really had not proved that he had true PG skills to lead and NBA team and also the primary reason that Luther's NBA career was short lived (he could not play PG at NBA level).

 

[Pekinfan]

I think we end up with Trice, Jones and Felix.
Three players that fit our needs and two of the three will be gone in two years that helps with class balance.

 

[illinifan3923]

I heard the Trice ship had sailed. Has that changed?

It certainly seems like we’ve cooled on him and I doubt the staff is actively recruiting him. He’s taking an official to Kansas State next week and they are considered the favorite.

 

[Illini B-Ball Fan]

I heard the Trice ship had sailed. Has that changed?

Unless the coaching staff communicated a no-go with Trice, then the possibility is still there for him to don the Illini O&B next year. Guess we'll all find out for sure on Apr 11th.