Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread (May 2019)

[Deleted member 554798]

Abject failure, beside those two.

We're way below the Mendoza line (for recruiting). Yeah, it's concerning. Hopefully, this is something we'll chuckle about very soon, but it's no bueno for now. Staff has an opportunity to flip the script with Patterson. Not holding my breath though.

I’m with you completely here. I think Underwood is an incredible x and o’s coach but having one signed commit headed into June isn’t much to brag about and isn’t a good look considering how long they’ve had to close others

 

[Double ACL]

I’m with you completely here. I think Underwood is an incredible x and o’s coach but having one signed commit headed into June isn’t much to brag about and isn’t a good look considering how long they’ve had to close others

I would worry more if the team wasn't complete. But this team on paper is complete.

We no longer after Cockburn have a glaring hole. Until Ayo moves forward this position at Illinois is hard to sell for a highly ranked PG. You always have to recruit in this world of transfers, early draft, etc. But if there is not a clear path to starting minutes, Illinois isn't the easiest sell on the street today. Now is the time to win basketball games.

 

[Ga65]

I would worry more if the team wasn't complete. But this team on paper is complete.

We no longer after Cockburn have a glaring hole. Until Ayo moves forward this position at Illinois is hard to sell for a highly ranked PG. You always have to recruit in this world of transfers, early draft, etc. But if there is not a clear path to starting minutes, Illinois isn't the easiest sell on the street today. Now is the time to win basketball games.

Would have felt like complete success with Holyfield but actually feel better having flexibility than filling with players that wouldn't get any time and I don't see a weakness at the wing with Tevian and Alan there. Am assuming some progression but this team has more balance than we have had in at least seven years.

 

[Deleted member 643761]

Abject failure, beside those two.

We're way below the Mendoza line (for recruiting). Yeah, it's concerning. Hopefully, this is something we'll chuckle about very soon, but it's no bueno for now. Staff has an opportunity to flip the script with Patterson. Not holding my breath though.

Hard to say we're below the Mendoza line when people project us in the top half of the conference.

 

[Joel Goodson]

Hard to say we're below the Mendoza line when people project us in the top half of the conference.

18/19 recruiting has been a big fail, besides Kofi (who is clearly a key get). Don't think I'm out on a limb here.

 

[Deleted member 631370]

Hard to say we're below the Mendoza line when people project us in the top half of the conference.

The thing is, recruiting isn't about the next immediate season. It's about the year or two or three AFTER that.

I heard this same thing when Bruce was swinging and whiffing at everybody circa 2005. Don't worry, we'll still be really good in 2006 and build momentum based on that! But, that God awful 2005-2006 recruiting run set up some really poor seasons in 2007 and 2008. And the rest is history.

Fast forward to the 2020-21 season. Ayo is presumably going pro. Feliz graduates. Kipper graduates. Who knows what else happens in terms of personnel. Where is our backcourt depth, exactly? What happens if we get an injury in our frontcourt? What happens if Giorgi has a big year and goes pro? (either US or overseas)

If we can't fill roster spots -- and we're only getting a few top-100 players -- that's going to have consequences down the road. It may not manifest next year, but it puts us in a position in which we absolutely MUST land a huge 2020 class to keep up any momentum that we build next season. Those do-or-die scenarios haven't played out in our favor in the past......in part because recruits smell it.

 

[bombayIllini]

The thing is, recruiting isn't about the next immediate season. It's about the year or two or three AFTER that.

I heard this same thing when Bruce was swinging and whiffing at everybody circa 2005. Don't worry, we'll still be really good in 2006 and build momentum based on that! But, that God awful 2005-2006 recruiting run set up some really poor seasons in 2007 and 2008. And the rest is history.

Fast forward to the 2020-21 season. Ayo is presumably going pro. Feliz graduates. Kipper graduates. Who knows what else happens in terms of personnel. Where is our backcourt depth, exactly? What happens if we get an injury in our frontcourt? What happens if Giorgi has a big year and goes pro? (either US or overseas)

If we can't fill roster spots -- and we're only getting a few top-100 players -- that's going to have consequences down the road. It may not manifest next year, but it puts us in a position in which we absolutely MUST land a huge 2020 class to keep up any momentum that we build next season. Those do-or-die scenarios haven't played out in our favor in the past......in part because recruits smell it.

Keep an eye on that portal.

 

[RIVERCITYCHIEF]

Would have felt like complete success with Holyfield but actually feel better having flexibility than filling with players that wouldn't get any time and I don't see a weakness at the wing with Tevian and Alan there. Am assuming some progression but this team has more balance than we have had in at least seven years.

You dont actually feel players dont have weaknesses in thier games. Everyone does and great players are always working on them. You may not call it a "weakness" but there is certainly is pleanty of opportunity for improvement in areas to become more physical at the 3/4. Our wings and 4s can certainly improve on the boards, defensively, and in the mid range game. If the three point line is moved back and it likely will be then these aspects are parts of the game that will be even more vital. Our current players and recruits need to be more physical. All players and teams have weaknesses and room to improve.

 

[Ga65]

Agree with you. Trying to make point that I didn't see the wing as a team weakness. Obviously players can always improve and there are always better players. I just see PF as our biggest weakness this year because of depth and next year it will be PG when Dre and Ayo leave. Just filling slots if they are not going to be long term improvements will not get us to where we want to go. Not sure what players they think they will get in 2020, but spending the scholarships on lesser players because they may not get the top guys just programs us for mediocrity IMO.

 

[Deleted member 643761]

The thing is, recruiting isn't about the next immediate season. It's about the year or two or three AFTER that.

I heard this same thing when Bruce was swinging and whiffing at everybody circa 2005. Don't worry, we'll still be really good in 2006 and build momentum based on that! But, that God awful 2005-2006 recruiting run set up some really poor seasons in 2007 and 2008. And the rest is history.

Fast forward to the 2020-21 season. Ayo is presumably going pro. Feliz graduates. Kipper graduates. Who knows what else happens in terms of personnel. Where is our backcourt depth, exactly? What happens if we get an injury in our frontcourt? What happens if Giorgi has a big year and goes pro? (either US or overseas)

If we can't fill roster spots -- and we're only getting a few top-100 players -- that's going to have consequences down the road. It may not manifest next year, but it puts us in a position in which we absolutely MUST land a huge 2020 class to keep up any momentum that we build next season. Those do-or-die scenarios haven't played out in our favor in the past......in part because recruits smell it.

i didnt say don't worry.

Anyone below the Mendoza line is basically among the worst hitters in baseball. we are so far above that measure it's ridiculous. far below what I want, but hardly as bad as you're saying.

 

[Joel Goodson]

i didnt say don't worry.

Anyone below the Mendoza line is basically among the worst hitters in baseball. we are so far above that measure it's ridiculous. far below what I want, but hardly as bad as you're saying.

Given our guards, totally understandable that we have no incoming guards. But we've whiffed A LOT on PFs and wings. Kouma isn't exactly a high demand recruit. AFAIC, a one for ~50 qualifies as south of the Mendoza line. We need to do better.

 

[sacraig]

Given our guards, totally understandable that we have no incoming guards. But we've whiffed A LOT on PFs and wings. Kouma isn't exactly a high demand recruit. AFAIC, a one for ~50 qualifies as south of the Mendoza line. We need to do better.

That's assuming that the expectation for Major League batting average is identical to the expectation for recruits landed divided by recruits offered. I don't know what the actual "successful" percentage is for the latter, but I would place money that it is not the same as the Mendoza line. You have to evaluate it by its own standard.

Our current performance in recruiting seems like it is below where it should be, but ultimately what I care about is results on the court. If we start winning on the court and keep doing this same thing in recruiting, I really won't care.

 

[Chief lives on]

I never thought I would live to see the day that recruits would prefer to go to Texas Tech over the University of Illinois. Thank you Ron Guenther Bruce Weber , Mike Thomas and John Groce.

 

[RIVERCITYCHIEF]

Agree with you. Trying to make point that I didn't see the wing as a team weakness. Obviously players can always improve and there are always better players. I just see PF as our biggest weakness this year because of depth and next year it will be PG when Dre and Ayo leave. Just filling slots if they are not going to be long term improvements will not get us to where we want to go. Not sure what players they think they will get in 2020, but spending the scholarships on lesser players because they may not get the top guys just programs us for mediocrity IMO.

I understand what you are saying. I do feel that Tev and Grif are capable 3s but until I see more consistency like we saw out of GB to be confident. . I imagine if you asked both Tev and Grif they would agree. They need to rebound, defend, and be more consistent to be a quality B10 starting 3. Do I think they can do it? Yes I do think they can They still need to show us though before I am confident.
I am more confident that Kofi can rebound, be physical, and fill a huge void at the 5 and allow GB to play the 4 often next season I hope Tev, or a recruit, transfer or someone can play the 3/4 spot to help on the boards when Kofi, and or GB need a break. As it stands now that is likely DW or Kip because they are stronger men. When both Kofi and GB play together I will be very excited to see what a huge change that will be playing with Ayo, Dre, Trent,Tev,Grif, DW and who ever else we may add to the squad.
I hope we get someone in the transfer portal t or a recruit provide meaningful minutes, physicality, and depth. I think that is likely once players decide what they are doing as it pertains to going pro.We have time. Things have changed with so many transfers now days.

 

[Joel Goodson]

That's assuming that the expectation for Major League batting average is identical to the expectation for recruits landed divided by recruits offered. I don't know what the actual "successful" percentage is for the latter, but I would place money that it is not the same as the Mendoza line. You have to evaluate it by its own standard.

Our current performance in recruiting seems like it is below where it should be, but ultimately what I care about is results on the court. If we start winning on the court and keep doing this same thing in recruiting, I really won't care.

Mendoza line for hoops recruiting. Not sure where that is, but we have to be below it, this year anyway.

 

[alaskaillini]

IIRC Duke went into a season a few years back with 8 scholarship players on the roster, and they still managed to do rather well. You don't take guys that can't help you become the team you want to be just to fill a spot. Are we perfect from a class and positional balance standpoint - no. Was Texas Tech last year - no. Are we more balanced and more experienced than last year - yes. That is progress.

Given our guards, totally understandable that we have no incoming guards. But we've whiffed A LOT on PFs and wings. Kouma isn't exactly a high demand recruit. AFAIC, a one for ~50 qualifies as south of the Mendoza line. We need to do better.

Batting average means nothing. John Groce had a pretty good batting average, but spent too much effort on a few very talented guys we didn't get, and did not fill the gaping holes we had in the roster. What matters is who ends up on the team. Last year was BU's first real recruiting year and I don't hear much complaint about the final result. He closed on a top flight recruit for our biggest need this year and it isn't over yet. (and even if it was we are not in any kind of crisis mode positionally, like the last 8 or so years). Don't understand all this grave concern.

 

[sacraig]

I never thought I would live to see the day that recruits would prefer to go to Texas Tech over the University of Illinois. Thank you Ron Guenther Bruce Weber , Mike Thomas and John Groce.

Let's hope we don't have to add any more names to that list.

 

[sacraig]

Mendoza line for hoops recruiting. Not sure where that is, but we have to be below it, this year anyway.

I'd honestly be interested in knowing where that line is, but I suspect that, even if someone had the data, it would be hard to analyze. You'd need to know how many recruits schools contact versus the number of openings they have, and you'd have to know how many of those recruits had real, "committable" offers. You'd also have to normalize somehow for the "tiers" of the respective recruits and programs.

Batting average is a lot simpler.

 

[RIVERCITYCHIEF]

IIRC Duke went into a season a few years back with 8 scholarship players on the roster, and they still managed to do rather well. You don't take guys that can't help you become the team you want to be just to fill a spot. Are we perfect from a class and positional balance standpoint - no. Was Texas Tech last year - no. Are we more balanced and more experienced than last year - yes. That is progress.



Batting average means nothing. John Groce had a pretty good batting average, but spent too much effort on a few very talented guys we didn't get, and did not fill the gaping holes we had in the roster. What matters is who ends up on the team. Last year was BU's first real recruiting year and I don't hear much complaint about the final result. He closed on a top flight recruit for our biggest need this year and it isn't over yet. (and even if it was we are not in any kind of crisis mode positionally, like the last 8 or so years). Don't understand all this grave concern.

I agree with 90% of this. Kofi and GB at the 5 and 4 along with our guards puts us in a much better place . My biggest concern is depth and being physical on defense and the boards. Hopefully someone that has physicality , skill set and size can provide depth. If an injury occurred to either of those 2 guys we would be screwed unless we have a enormous step by a bench player from last year or we added another player like GB.

 

[sacraig]

Well dont tink most recruits would choose TTech. I understand Holyfield going there. He was in Austin and Lubbuck is close. Sometimes proximity matters. TTech is in a great conference too. There are minutes available also. The U of I is a specail place but it isnt like he picked SFA. Hopefully we can get some players from our state like Ayo again that want to play closer to home. I'm sure that was a factor for Holyfield after living in Austin.

First, SFASU is not in Austin. It's in Nacogdoches, Texas, which is nearly in Louisiana (https://goo.gl/maps/aJoJ56xENfMLPNcz9). Second, Holyfield is from Albuquerque, NM, which is only a 5 hour drive from Lubbock.

There is also the fact that Texas Tech was just the national runner up and did so by effectively utilizing transfers. That's a nice carrot to dangle in front of top transfers.

Viewed objectively, Texas Tech was sort of a no-brainer for Holyfield. I think the only reason he didn't just sign papers to go to Tech immediately after announcing the transfer is because of his previous relationship with Underwood and the fact that you have to at least listen to programs like Kansas.

 

[Joel Goodson]

Just to be clear, there's no reason to press the panic button WRT our recruiting. However, there's cause for concern. And next class is going to be critical.

 

[OrangeNTude]

...didn't just sign papers to go to Tech immediately after announcing the transfer is because of his previous relationship with Underwood and...

This part is kind of interesting because of having the opposite effect of what might have been intended. Whereas it might have been intended to "help" BU as a nice gesture or courtesy visit, it only ended up hurting our recruiting by burning one of the last two OVs.
If recruits really have no intention of committing somewhere then "courtesy visits" mostly benefit the recruit. They serve little benefit to the university other than to say they were able to get X big name recruit on campus but it costs an OV that had no chance at a commitment. Not a big deal though if you are closing on a reasonable number of recruits before official visit quantity gets depleted.

 

[sacraig]

This part is kind of interesting because of having the opposite effect of what might have been intended. Whereas it might have been intended to "help" BU as a nice gesture or courtesy visit, it only ended up hurting our recruiting by burning one of the last two OVs.
If recruits really have no intention of committing somewhere then "courtesy visits" mostly benefit the recruit. They serve little benefit to the university other than to say they were able to get X big name recruit on campus but it costs an OV that had no chance at a commitment. Not a big deal though if you are closing on a reasonable number of recruits before official visit quantity gets depleted.

Who said that was the motivation? I think he was legitimately considering us. "Courtesy visits," if they actually exist, don't help the recipient. If their relationship was that strong ahead of time, then Holyfield would likely have had the courtesy to tell BU he wasn't interested rather than to visit for publicity. You don't get publicity from graduate transfers anyway.

 

[illini80]

Mendoza line for hoops recruiting. Not sure where that is, but we have to be below it, this year anyway.

I would consider the Mendoza line to be the minimal threshold of acceptability. That makes it rather subjective when talking recruiting. Are we above or below it? Well we had 4 rides. One was home run, one “may” be close the line and two unfilled at this point I would argue put us below it. That could very well change before the class is closed later this summer.

As I’ve said before, next year is make or break for Underwood’s recruiting especially if we carry two open rides.. There are too many important holes to fill to struggle with numbers again.

 

[Deleted member 643761]

That's assuming that the expectation for Major League batting average is identical to the expectation for recruits landed divided by recruits offered. I don't know what the actual "successful" percentage is for the latter, but I would place money that it is not the same as the Mendoza line. You have to evaluate it by its own standard.

Our current performance in recruiting seems like it is below where it should be, but ultimately what I care about is results on the court. If we start winning on the court and keep doing this same thing in recruiting, I really won't care.

Basketball recruiting isn't about percentages. It's about the quality of the class. Who cares if you land 4 out of 12 if all 4 players are mediocre.

We have a top 50 player. That alone puts us in the midpoint of recruiting.