sacraig
- The desert
Ridiculous? I think it is pretty reasonable, based on the returning talent level and the inexperience of roster to college ball and each other.
History shows that unless you are a top 10 five star freshmen, and maybe there are some other five star kids in your team, freshmen don’t get you to the tourney. I am guessing you were saying Mark Smith was a known last year, and would be the answer to the rebuild.
I want the team of my youth to win as much as anyone, but you got to be honest about what we have and what it will take to move forward.
History doesn't show that freshmen don't get you to the tourney. That certainly makes it less likely, but it really depends on how fast the game slows down for them. If enough of them pick it up before, for example, the end of the non-conference schedule, then we have a chance. If it takes them a little longer, we are probably hosed. Again, I said that the odds are certainly against us, but "no shot" is patently ridiculous. Loyola had "no shot" at the Sweet 16 this year I bet.
And no, I didn't say Mark Smith was a known day 1 superstar. In fact, I think my opinion at the time was that he had a lot of potential but not a lot of experience so we should give him time to adjust to the college game. I honestly still feel that way and am legitimately disappointed that he transferred.
That said, think about what we actually have now compared to last year.
- We've upgraded our guards (in terms of ready-to-play-now minutes) with Dosunmu and Feliz, plus more experienced Williams and Frazier.
- We've upgraded our wing position with Jones (Griffin is a bit of an unknown) to add to Nichols and Jordan.
- We've clearly gotten worse at the PF position with Black moving on (and a real unknown in Bezhanishvili if you consider him a PF).
- Kane is an improvement over Finke athletically and in terms of potential, but we will have to see how well that pans out, especially as a freshman. Finke was a total no-show last year on O and D.
So no, I am not ready to call it a failed season. We've upgraded guard and wing, we could really go either way at the 5, and at the 4 we clearly will still need some work. That's hardly reason to say we have no shot. Long shot, maybe, but not no shot.