Unless they get bad advice, like kofi did Hopkins and Shannon Junior will both be back
This is wrong, important to understand.
From the perspective of scouting him as an NBA defensive player, last year was a catastrophe for Kofi. He was exploited in every kind of matchup he'd face at the next level, totally different than Luka Garza who kinda-sorta did just maybe well enough if you squint facing the same issues. Garza is quickly failing out of the league anyway, despite being an awesome offensive player. If you are hopeless at defending NBA athletes on the perimeter you will be gone quickly. Kofi was not an NBA prospect in April 2022, period.
Ayo, for the record, was a definite NBA prospect and a guy with real first round interest in April 2021, but nonetheless was another guy who was a weird translation to the NBA where his physical profile wouldn't just allow him to get to and finish everything at the rim the way he could in the Big Ten. Ayo's a real NBA player and would have been taken in the first round if you re-drafted, but he's a quirky NBA player, the scouting was overly harsh but it wasn't wrong.
I mention that because Shannon and Hawkins both have absolutely prototypical hand-in-glove profiles for the modern NBA (albeit at different positions), they fit the mold to a T. So we're used to a "godlike superstar All-American = non first rounder" translation for Kofi and Ayo which will not apply here.
Hawkins has the individual skill pieces of an NBA big, but has shown them only fleetingly and inconsistently. You forgive some of that for an 18 year old who can jump out of the gym, Hawkins is beyond the point where just "potential" will carry his profile. He's a possible draft pick, but coming back and putting consistent high level performance on tape where getting him going is more of a team focus offers some real upside for him.
If Shannon returns and then enters the 2024 Draft, he will be 24 years old the first time he touches an NBA floor. He has shown comprehensively that he is an awesome athlete who can break players down off the dribble and explode to the rim, finishing through contact. He has both ability and willingness to guard. His jumper is functional and could be good (though probably never elite) with further development. He is what he is, I think he would definitely be a second rounder and get a full time NBA roster spot as a rookie, and I feel like he has more to lose than gain by coming back. I'd love to have him, I just wouldn't expect him being a 20 point a night Big Ten POY to radically change his draft outlook.
The good news on both of them is the 2024 Draft is thought to be much weaker than 2023. However, that's not a secret and they may not be the only fringe guys that return with that knowledge.
If I had to handicap it?
Hawkins stays, Shannon goes 40%
Both stay 30%
Both go 25%
Shannon stays Hawkins goes 5%
