You make great points and I agree with most. It's the weighted part that I'm not sure that I'm in full agreement with. For us last year, without games 4 and 9(UCLA and Texas), there is no game 32. A loss in game 1(Eastern Illinois ) and it's a true 50/50 whether we get to 32. You know what I mean? Without those two games last season, the criticism of him would be at a frenzy. Not getting into the second weekend is bothersome(obviously), however each win/loss does carry the same weight, one just ends the season, so it's more dramatic. Every team, but one, ends their season with a loss. It's the fun, yet harsh realities of a one and done.
So, I see where you're going, but I think that sometimes, we put too much weight into one game. The loss to UNC in 2005 felt a million times worse than the loss last year. Many(without looking) can't remember the team that we beat to get into the second weekend (I was there and still had to give it a quick thought).
The season is a domino effect and losing the last one sucks, but not sure the weight is different.Hope that ramble made sense.