Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread
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I'm a little nervous right now about Kylan being the primary ball handler....hope he can improve between now and then. The rest sounds great...especially Rez and Tomi playing together.
The funny thing about Boswell’s game is outside the missed bunnies it feels like a completely focus thing. Meaning, the dumb turnovers and ill advised shots are something that to me feels incredibly easy to clean up.
I want Boswell on this team next year, but I’m not confident in him being our primary PG.
band camp
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I understand Wagler may be a year plus out before he gets on the court, but what about B. Lee as some sort of contributor next year?
Will Jakstys be ready to spell Rez and Tomi or will that be the transfer 4?
I was thinking about this yesterday. I did a quick, very rough analysis of Riley's 10 year earning outlook under a few different scenarios. I was conservative and assumed his 2nd contract would be the league average of $12M/yr. For simplicity sake, I assumed he would get $1M NIL here next year.
Scenario A: Go pro this year and get drafted late 1st round.
Scenario B: Stay another year and work his way up to mid 1st round.
Scenario C: Stay another year and work his way up to the lottery.
Scenario D: Stay another year and get drafted late 1st round.
10 year earning outlook
Scenario A: ~$83M
Scenario B: ~$77M
Scenario C: ~$87M
Scenario D: ~$72M
Not the conclusion I wanted to come to when I started mathing, but as long as Riley is projected to go in the first round, I think he needs to go. The downside risk of coming back and not being a lottery pick seems greater than the upside of working his way into the lottery.
Again, giant disclaimer that this is a very basic analysis with a bunch of assumptions, averages, neatly rounded numbers, no considerations for NPV, etc. I think it works directionally though to understand what is at stake for him.
I think this analysis is great and agree, if he can be sure of late first round he probably should just do it.
But what if he falls to 2nd round? I'd be interested how that would affect the analysis. Maybe not much at all. Some 2nd round picks got good guaranteed money the last draft. But maybe enough to change the calculus?
RichardKeenesCousin
Richard Keene's Cousin
Jeremiah gonna be a lottery pick most likely … He ain’t coming back to college …
Depends who the transfer guard is for me … Not sure I like that small backcourt of DGL/Kylan … Both guys also better as secondary ball handlers …
I want to see DGL get a lot of playing time but next to someone who is 6"5 or taller. I don't like having both guards under 6'3".
What's the scout on Dame Sarr? From what I read he's incredibly high upside but inconsistent on offense and defense.
We need a primary PG, elite 3pt shooter, and some interior rotational help in that lineup.
We need a primary PG, elite 3pt shooter, and some interior rotational help in that lineup.
Joel Goodson
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How about Ty at the 4? A man can dream . . .
Key question: Is he more likely to get to the second contract if he stays another year to Fletch up and learn more defense?
If I recall the numbers (no time to check now, fact verifying by others welcome) -- Most players don't get the second contract. A lot of those who "do", get a G-league minimum.
I question why Boswell has dropped 14% in his 3pt shooting. It's not like he was low volume at Arizona, he took 251 3s in Arizona. I think a big part of it is our offense.
You've got to let players develop. Do I expect a Sr Boswell to be the same guy he is this year? I sure as heck hope not. You take the offseason and develop your game. We cannot just go find someone new every year.
I'm not an expert here so if anyone else has a better answer, chime in. But 2nd round contracts have so much variability that it's hard to predict. From the numbers I found, if he's drafted in the 2nd round this year, and assuming he could get a 4 year deal, over 10 years it would probably be about equal to if he were to stay one more year here and move into the mid to late first round. (As a 2nd rounder he would make less over the next 5 years but he would get to his 2nd contract sooner)I think this analysis is great and agree, if he can be sure of late first round he probably should just do it.
But what if he falls to 2nd round? I'd be interested how that would affect the analysis. Maybe not much at all. Some 2nd round picks got good guaranteed money the last draft. But maybe enough to change the calculus?
In that scenario, I think it would make sense for him to stay another year because the upside of improving from 2nd round to lottery is significant. And all he would really need to do to break even is go in the top 20 of next year's draft so downside is more limited.
I’d love another year of Tomi.
Can we get a thick transfer 4 (dare I say a banger). Assuming that’s the squad, Morez and Tomi are on the court together meaning there are rotation minutes at the 5.
Shame to loose white, but where are you taking minutes from? Riley? DGL? He can start somewhere, so he’s probably odd man out.
That is probably going to be the idea. I do think one of Will Riley or Constanza is on Illinois next seasonI think the best fit for Boswell is similar to his current role as a secondary lead guard. I'd hope the transfer guard is a better starting option at the 1, but that's just me
A bit inconsistent offensively, but his defense is really solid and he's a good athlete. Has a super high ceiling-think he would be a 10 and 5 guy as a freshman-really good 6th man.
I think Sarr and the transfer guard will be the two big offseason gets, and the rest of the guys they bring in will be role players. I do expect Will Riley back at Illinois as things stand, but still some time to go there.
A year 2 of Morez/Tomi with a year of Fletch and OA with them could be the best frontcourt in the country next season
Couldn't agree more! Would you say things have changed in our favor with Mo's camp? IIRC, they were a little unhappy a month or so ago....
Yes, I think that has been going our way for a while. I think TA leaving gave people some pause but he loves the school and is really happy here
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